A Lost Decade or a Freight Train: $NVDA, $NFLX & $GOOGL | Market Hours #57

Chapters

  • 00:00 Intro: When Moon Lambo?

  • 01:04 Ben: A Lost Decade?

  • 01:35 Nick: The SPY's Long-Term Fibs

  • 05:45 GP: Amazon and the Law of Large Numbers

  • 06:50 The 1970s Comparison

  • 08:24 GP: Basing Above the 2020 Highs

  • 10:28 GP: The Bull Market Started in 2013

  • 14:02 GP: The Nine-Month Moving Average

  • 15:03 Ben: The Show-Me State

  • 18:06 Nick: A Freight Train, Not a Top

  • 19:39 Nick: Redfin's Wedge

  • 21:10 GP: Companies Prepared Early

  • 23:12 GP: CDW and Corporate Spending

  • 26:47 Celsius

  • 28:20 GP: Netflix's Confluence of Support

  • 32:26 GP: Coinbase Held

  • 33:28 Ben: Binance in the News

  • 34:29 Nick: Bitcoin's Descending Wedge

  • 36:00 Ben: Bitcoin's 21-25 Range

  • 36:30 GP: Coinbase vs. Robinhood

  • 37:31 Ben: Nvidia Puts as a Hedge

  • 39:05 GP: Closing His Nvidia Calls

  • 42:08 GP: Nvidia's Unfilled Gap

  • 43:40 GP: Small Semis

  • 44:41 GP: Shopify Retests Its Base

  • 46:13 Apple, Google and Amazon

  • 48:18 GP: Google's Bard Volume

  • 49:49 Square

  • 50:20 GP: OIH Over XLE

  • 51:53 Biotech and the XBI

  • 53:26 GP: Copper, Metals and First Solar

  • 54:30 Likes and Dislikes: Utilities, CVS and Lockheed

  • 56:41 GP: The Dollar's Retracement

  • 57:13 Ben: Costco

  • 59:46 Ben: Trading Five Names

  • 1:00:19 Peloton, Roku and Etsy

  • 1:01:21 Baidu and the Casinos

  • 1:03:27 China

  • 1:05:04 Wrap-Up

Market Hours #57 went out live on Sunday, March 5, with Ben, Nick and GP. Ben asked whether the market is in for a lost decade. Nick and GP pushed back: Nick sees a freight train, not a top, and GP said the bull market started in 2013 and is basing above the 2020 highs. The hosts went through Netflix's support, Coinbase versus Robinhood, Ben's Nvidia puts, Shopify, Google and OIH over the XLE, then finished with their likes and dislikes.

Nick's setups, levels and trades

Nick said "let's just say that like spy 1000 was a magnet," and "a 50 correction in any like long-term trend is perfectly healthy." "Do I think we're gonna be sub 500 no I don't." "Long term the indexes are always going to continue higher." "When you look at a chart of like the spy on a monthly time frame like I see freight train," and "all we've done is like Channel slowly for the last two years basically sideways." "I don't imagine that to be a wildly Trend ending topping pattern." "We got an opportunity to buy names at like a crazy discount," with "a lot of cup and handle patterns." Redfin is "kind of wedged nicely right into like the 15 200" day. On Bitcoin's weekly, "I basically connected the lows from like June 21 June 22 and then kind of like November 2022," and "I think it looks great moving averages are starting to cross." On the XBI, "I should have expected a little bit more a bigger problem." He doesn't like CVS: "it's had a horrific few months here."

Ben's setups, levels and trades

Ben said "I think we might be in for a lost decade," an idea "I took... from a short seller actually over a" Charts for Charity. "I live in the show me state," so "you gotta... prove that you're gonna do one thing or the other." "I think based on this last move that higher seems to be more probable than lower." "I'm gonna keep trying to pick off some things and trade some things and add some things I like." On Binance, "binance moves a lot of money in the crypto space that... can be worth watching." On Coinbase, "I kind of like it for trade." For Bitcoin, "our range is clearly from 21 to 25." On Nvidia, "I'm in Nvidia puts right now," because "I think it's way overextended and the RSI is really hot so is the stochastics." "It's a little bit of a hedge to my long position," with "the 220s into the March." "I've been playing a lot of reversions" to the mean. On Google, "I don't hate Google right here," since "I think they're just one good showing away from completely reversing that fortune." As long as Google is basing in the low-to-mid 90s, "I still see that as constructive." "I don't like utility companies because they have not lowered natural gas prices." He "would never bet against" Costco, "one of the best run companies in the entire S P 500." "I've only been trading like five names," and "Tesla Nvidia Apple the QQQs and spy have all been reversion trades for me lately."

GP's setups, levels and trades

GP said "I don't think Amazon will ever go back to those levels of growth at the size that it's at," because "it's just law of large numbers." "We didn't start a new bull market until we took out... 2000 and 2008 highs," which was 2013, and "then after we took it out we spent the next two years... sideways." "We are now basing in that area," "a retest of a breakout essentially," and "all you people have been talking about new lows you've been wrong for nine months." "I'm in the camp that... we're in a really nice consolidation phase after not having that consolidation phase in 2020." On the nine-month moving average, "I've never seen back to back months of holding the nine month moving average in... the continuation of that downtrend." "For us to have that next... leg lower there has to be that something that breaks that no one is expecting." CDW, where corporates buy technology, "is sitting near all-time highs." On Netflix, "if it holds here there's a Confluence of support," including "the 21 SMA on the weekly," but "what raised flags for me was the Friday move." It either bounces or "it's dead." "I like coin," and "on a day where Bitcoin collapsed the night before coin did not and that's a first in a long time." Against Robinhood, Coinbase "is the better play."

On Nvidia, "I was long calls Nvidia all that insane strength off the massive offering and then Friday I closed them out," because "the weekly volume on Nvidia just wasn't there." "The 161 extension here ends around 270." It also didn't come close to filling its gap after "a 10 billion dollar offering." Among small semis, "Indi... it's a solid move," and LSCC "has literally just gone banana since... the 2019 breakout." Shopify "broke right back into the base," and "I think shop starts to behave like Roblox." On Google, "Google is one of the biggest accumulated Mega cap stocks during this like down period." "Oih looks awesome XLE does not," and "I think Services is what leads the energy Market higher." "2021 was Peak Tech earnings," and the XLE "seems like Peak earnings in 2022." The XBI has gone "seven straight months of not making any new lows on the monthly," and "once 95 gets taken out on xbi it's game on." "The metals look fantastic," and "I still think xme is just getting started here." "I personally don't like LMT Lockheed Martin," since it "rejects every time." The dollar and the euro "look exactly like Tech did in March of 2022 before the Epic collapse."

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Testing the 200-Day: $NVDA, $AMZN & $TSLA | Market Hours #56