Guilty Until Proven Innocent: $XLE, $TSLA & $JPM | Market Hours #64

Chapters

  • 00:00 Intro: All Three Back

  • 01:02 Nick: Positioned Long

  • 05:13 GP: XLE Followed the QQQs

  • 06:47 Ben: Conflicting Signals in Energy

  • 08:54 GP: The Bounce That Didn't Break

  • 11:32 GP: Why Did OPEC Cut?

  • 13:04 GP: Oxy and the Amazon Analog

  • 15:11 Nick: Oxy, Exxon and EOG

  • 16:12 GP: Marathon and Energy Distribution

  • 20:24 Gold: Crowded and Extended

  • 22:01 GP: Boeing Is Dead for a Decade

  • 24:05 GP: The Dollar to 92

  • 26:09 Nick: Tesla's Entry Levels

  • 29:14 GP: Tesla Into Earnings

  • 30:50 GP: JPMorgan's Failed Head and Shoulders

  • 33:30 GP: The QQQs' 20/50 Crossover

  • 35:05 Nick: QQQ Targets

  • 36:06 Netflix Into Earnings

  • 39:40 Earnings This Week

  • 41:43 Ben: Semis and SoFi

  • 42:45 Micron's Rounded Bottom

  • 43:45 Bitcoin's Dump

  • 44:18 Costco and Exact Sciences

  • 45:49 GP: Coinbase and the 70 Level

  • 48:22 Ben: Bitcoin's Analogs

  • 49:25 Ben and Nick: Agenda-Driven Takes

  • 50:27 GP: What Is Price Telling You?

  • 53:00 Amazon: Up 37 Cents in Three Years

  • 55:35 GP: Amazon Needs a Dividend

  • 56:09 Ben: Amazon and Gold

  • 56:39 GP: Utilities, Nvidia, Micron and Alibaba

  • 59:10 Nick: His Likes and Dislikes

  • 1:01:14 Nick: Full-On Bull

  • 1:02:45 ARK Names and PAVE

  • 1:04:49 ETFs vs. Individual Stocks

  • 1:12:01 Nick: The GUSH Decay

  • 1:13:39 Wrap-Up

Market Hours #64 went out live on Sunday, April 16, with Ben, Nick and GP all back. Nick is positioned long. GP admitted oil's bounce defied his call, and Ben weighed energy's conflicting signals. The hosts covered gold, Boeing, the dollar, Tesla's entry levels, JPMorgan's failed head and shoulders, and the QQQs' 20/50 crossover. They finished with their likes, from Amazon and Micron to Alibaba and Axon.

Nick's setups, levels and trades

Nick said "I'm definitely positioned long but I definitely did not expect... the strength that we got last week." "Cyber security looks awesome," with PANW "definitely my... fav on top of the list." The McClellan was "pretty close to kind of more of a neutral reading," and "the QQQs and the spies close the week out both with a three week tie it above the... 10 week." "We're gonna approach... an inflection point here where you're not gonna have a choice but to chase." "I do have a put on a small position on oxy but I'm underwater on it currently," and "I think there's better setups elsewhere." "Oxy XOM and EOG are kind of the three that I'm kind of just watching." On Tesla, "I don't have a position in Tesla it's definitely a stock that I trade actively." "On a long entry I'd be looking to enter over 191," and "if it can get through its 200-day I think it sees 300." On the QQQs, "I think where we're kind of heading on the QQQs is 370," and "335 is going to be the one that's going to have to be taken out." He likes "Google and apple and Microsoft," and "Amazon's probably my least favorite even though I do like it." "I love vrtx I love isrg," and among cheaper names he's watching "iot Roblox Alx axon and... lnth." Axon is "basically holding right up here above all-time highs," and "after 2 30 I'd say snag" some. He doesn't like gold "and I'll just say Commodities in general." "I do think that the... trend has definitely changed," and "I either want to see Gap and goes or gap down then get those gaps filled right away."

Ben's setups, levels and trades

Ben said "you guys know I don't look at volume a lot but how does volume get smaller and the price go keep going higher." "Declining volume doesn't usually end out in a bullish scenario." On the XLE, "we've talked about this area right here around 90 that if it can stay above that and sustain that... that's a big spot." "When I have conflicting signals... it's hard for me to buy into a bullish case." "I almost exited my position of Charles Schwab," but "I'll stay put," and "asml is the one I'm going to be watching." He did homework on the Bitcoin analogs people were sharing: "they're so not even close to being the same." "There's too many agenda driven folks out there," who are "talking their book more than they're talking what they're actually seeing on the chart." "I already said I'm sticking with Amazon and I don't like gold."

GP's setups, levels and trades

GP said "the QQQs in The XLE were kind of following the same path just one year behind," but "XLE got that mean reversion bounce back to the 20-week moving average and didn't die." "I saw the reversion coming I even saw the bounce coming but I did not expect it to maintain." "When you get new data you have to change your position," and "maybe your recession is right but your timing is off." "OPEC doesn't usually cut knowing that demand is going to increase." Oxy had "back-to-back weeks of rejecting" the 20, and "it still looks like the Amazon chart from 2020 to 2022." MRO "had a 20 to 50 cross down," and "all your stocks on The XLE are doing the opposite of oil." Companies "looking at Acquisitions as a growth strategy" is "stuff that's usually happening towards the end of Cycles." On Boeing, "I personally think... Boeing stock is dead for another decade." On the dollar, "I've been dollar bearish since October," and "eventually it's going to 92." Tesla "is holding the 200 a week moving average," and "typically Tesla is a earnings premium collector." "What's one of the most powerful setups in the market a failed Head and Shoulders."

On JPMorgan, "when you have a failed Head and Shoulders pattern it tends... insanely bullish," and the XLF has "held the 2008 highs" for "five six straight weeks." "Many companies were prepared for what was coming," and "what happens if a recession never hits." On the QQQs weekly, "last week we just got the 20 Crossing back above the 50," "over a year after it crossed down." Netflix's "quarterly high was 396 and we can't take that out," and "it's three inside quarters." On Coinbase, "if crypto does higher coin goes higher," and "if it doesn't break down the Gap to 77 ish could be filled." "Price patterns repeat but economic conditions are different," and "price is telling you we're stuck." Amazon has "doubled their revenue intake since 2018 and it's down two cents," and "the easiest way for Amazon to get respect is if they introduced a nominal dividend." "I did not like the utilities the xlu." "I actually like Nvidia," "I just can't stop looking at" Micron "over 66.91," and "I like Baba still." Alibaba "held the 20-day to the exact point," and "if it continues to hold this Gap I think the... move is higher eventually."

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