Chapters
00:00 Intro: Back After a Week Off
01:35 GP: Everyone Waiting on 4,300
04:41 Nick: Let the Price Action Tell Me
06:14 Nick: The SPX Measured Move
10:23 GP: The SPY's Island Gap Reversal
11:56 GP: Semis Under the Surface
13:33 Nick: Gap Downs Getting Bought
14:38 GP: Small Caps and Financials
15:40 GP: Banks Buying Assets for Pennies
16:43 GP: The Earnings Recession Narrative
18:52 Nick: Amazon and the 106 Level
20:56 GP: Profitable Companies Win
22:01 Ben: Fed Hyperbole
23:33 GP: Micron for the Long Term
24:05 GP: XLE Broke From Oil
26:08 Nick: The IBB Held
27:42 Moderna
29:42 GP: Food Names at All-Time Highs
31:16 Fast Food and Recessions
32:48 Nick: Lifetime and Planet Fitness
33:50 GP: Why He Waits on IPOs
35:24 MongoDB
38:30 GP: Coinbase Is the Laggard
41:02 GP: Nvidia's Breakaway Gap
42:04 Alibaba
43:35 Saia and Crocs
45:39 ServiceNow and Spotify
48:22 Ben: S&P Breadth by the Numbers
48:53 GP: Pfizer's Distribution
49:56 GP: Wait for the Gold Breakout
50:58 Netflix's Measured Move
51:59 GP: Netflix's Flat-Top Cloud
54:00 Nick: ServiceNow's Bull Flag
54:30 GP: Target Is the Laggard
57:39 Ben: First Solar and Okta
59:41 Semis Ready to Party
1:01:14 GP: Disney's Weeks Tight
1:02:48 DraftKings and Casinos
1:03:50 Nick: Intel and Cisco
1:06:24 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #65 went out live on Sunday, April 30, with Ben, Nick and GP back after a week off. GP questioned why everyone expects the market to stop at 4,300. Nick laid out a measured move into the 4,500–4,700 area. The hosts covered semis, small caps, Amazon's 106 level, food names at all-time highs, Coinbase as the laggard, Nvidia, Netflix and gold, and finished with First Solar, Okta and Disney.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said "I've been paying less and less attention to kind of the fin... universe," and "I'm just gonna let the price action tell me where we're going." "I think we're heading past 4 300," because "I think the market moves very symmetrically," and "I think we're largely heading into this 450 470 area." "If I'm in positions I'm definitely going to be peeling a lot off going into strength." "There's too many good looking setups out there to not be bullish." "One of the most bullish things that we can see are major gap down getting bought up." On Amazon, "I thought 106 was a big level," and price "can pretty quickly get up to the high of that bar," around 130. "I thought 101 would be a good place to take a stab," and "it's range bound until it's not." On the IBB, "I was surprised to see how well it held," and the 0.618 "puts us back up to basically that 138." Lifetime is "about to bust out," and Planet Fitness is working on a breakout "as long as it takes out this pivot that puts it over a hundred." On MongoDB, "my first area of Interest would kind of be in this 350." His favorite is ServiceNow: "I liked how it held the 50 day and the 10 week and I think it's kind of just putting in a bull flag." Cisco and Research In Motion were among the stocks he "day traded all the time like way back when."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben opened with "we're not here to make calls we're here to tell you what we see and what we like." On the S&P, "I think 4 300 it's kind of like a natural area that we could think of maybe some resistance or some pause," but "do I think it's just going to hit that and be a brick wall... I don't think so." On the Fed, "I think the hyperbole that goes on with the FED is it's really dramatic," given "they waited until March to raise rates." On Alibaba, "for me Baba's too hard to hold on to for any period of time," so "to me it's a trade not... necessarily investment." He found that "291 of the 503 s p companies are green for the year," and "that total weighting of those 291 companies is 71 percent." His like is First Solar: "almost time to get interested back in First Solar," since "I think that it's still got more to go." His dislike is Okta: "I kind of think it's got some more downside to go."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "we've been sideways for well over a year now," yet "everyone's still counting on the macro breakdown." "When you base this much and you test this High when the breakout happens at 4300 if it happens... it's gonna be powerful." "When you're looking at longer time frames like this doesn't seem like it's set up for imminent destruction." On the SPY weekly, "if the Spy opens above 420 you have an island Gap reversal." In semis, "Nvidia... is starting to break out after basically a month of consolidation," "AMD had a bull flag," and Micron "looks like it's about to go bananas." The IWM "is sitting in the Breakaway Gap from October 2020," and "XLF is... retesting a 13-year Breakout and not breaking down." The banks "are trying to buy assets for pennies." "Once we see the Russell start to rip I think you know that it's game on." "Profitable companies outperform the unprofitable companies which is what you would expect when you're getting five percent in treasuries." He likes Micron for "the long term here," "like Buy and Hold." "I think XLE has broken its correlation to oil," and "I still see Distribution on it," "but it refuses to break down."
The food names making all-time highs "have gone back to their cogs... back to pre-pandemic yet their prices are at post pandemic levels." "I don't like IPOs in general until like two years have passed." On Coinbase, "if you're playing the upside by the strength don't buy the laggard." Nvidia "literally held that Breakaway Gap from 2021," and "this has all-time highs written all over it." Pfizer's long distribution "is how I see XLV XLE xlu." On gold, "wait for the... Breakout," and "maybe you don't catch the 1500 to 3 000 move but at least you'll catch it without any headaches." Netflix "never moves outside of earnings week," and "it's at the bottom of the ascending triangle." "Their EPS is like five or six times what it was in 2017 or 18. and the price is exactly the same." Target "continues to reject the horizontal pivot and the trend line at the same time." Disney "gave you actually four weeks tight," and "the last time we had 3wt was June and it went from a 95 close to 123 in the next four weeks."
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