Chapters
00:00 Intro: Picking Up on Oil
00:34 Nick: Head and Shoulders in Energy
01:34 GP: Energy's Distribution Mode
05:09 Chevron, Marathon and Exxon
07:47 GP: Oil Couldn't Take Out 2008
09:52 Nick: Automakers Going Electric
10:24 Ben: Recency Bias
12:28 GP: When the Technicals Don't Confirm
14:59 Nick: Trade the Market You Get
17:01 GP: Shopify Read the Room
19:03 GP: Amazon Needs a Dividend
20:03 Amazon's Three-Week Tight
23:12 Coinbase, Redfin and Zillow
24:18 Microsoft's Green Bars
25:19 Nick: Short Energy, Long the Miners
26:49 Ben: Gold, Silver and Copper
29:25 Nick: Gold's Levels
30:56 GP: Gold's Waning Volume
32:29 Medical Supply Names
33:31 Ben: Biotech and the XBI
36:04 GP: MongoDB and Datadog
37:05 GP: What If There's No Lower Low?
40:12 Microsoft and Apple as Indexes
42:17 GP: Just Set a Stop
44:49 Ben: The Fear of a Crash
47:53 The Fed and Job Cuts
50:28 GP: What If the Slowdown Never Comes?
51:00 Ben: Disney, PayPal and CrowdStrike
53:02 GP: PayPal and Target Distribution
54:41 Nick: Dexcom, Broadcom and Lam
55:11 GP: Amazon, Google and Twilio
57:45 GP: Shopify Calls and Hut 8
59:15 Micron
1:00:19 Ben: What He's Buying
1:00:52 GP: Tesla Above 300
1:02:24 Nick: Tesla's Long-Dated Calls
1:03:25 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #66 went out live on Sunday, May 7, with Ben, Nick and GP. GP made the case that energy is in distribution and that oil demand is waning. Ben and Nick talked about recency bias. GP asked bears what they'll do if the lower low never comes. The hosts also covered gold, biotech, Amazon, Twilio and Hut 8, and Tesla's setup into the Cybertruck.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick pointed to the EOG weekly as "a super pretty like Head and Shoulders pattern at a weekly time frame and after you know a pretty sustained move" higher. "Even the automakers came out in the last couple years" saying they would go fully electric "by mid-2030s." On recency bias, "I think 2020 is still in the back of a lot of... people's minds," and "we have to trade the market that we get not the one that we want." On the XLE, "a 50 retracement from its move off the lows is about at 60." This week "I was short EOG and dvn and then I was long the miners fnv... rgld and a little bit of the GLD which I still have." "I like both of those monthly charts but... if they don't push into highs I'd be... quick to hit the... Run button." "My tune would obviously change in the energy sector if we were to like reclaim the 200-day." If gold "dips below let's just say 184," then "the next stop is basically the low of that bar which would be 177 ish." He likes "dxcm... avgo and... lrcx," and on energy, "I like energy on the short side but on the long side no." On Tesla, "you could wait until it clears 200 and still be good or just being long-dated calls," "like sure maybe September or January," and "if it breaks... this week's candle low get out."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "one thing that many people who are in the market especially on the retail side struggle with but we all do recency bias." "We all want to be part of what's working." "I think we just try to find reasons to validate our own bias as opposed to being open-minded." "I think silver I think copper and I think gold all three look great," and "first we're gonna attack 160" on the GLD. He's not a commodities or drug-sector trader, but he bought the biotech flush in the XBI and is "up quite nicely right now." "I really like the look of Disney," which is "been hovering this 90 to 100 level." PayPal is "so ugly and so tight," and "I might... go some Degen calls on that." "I want to throw some love to crowdstrike," and "I love crowd through 140." "I believe Cycles are happening faster," and "people feel like a flush you know from spy 412 down to spy 289 could happen in a given session." "I'm going to buy some PayPal and some Disney and some twilio and we'll see how I come out at the end of the week."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said energy names "are in distribution mode," and "it's one of the most frustrating parts of being either long or being short." "I think Exxon was trading at like a nine or ten multiple which it hasn't done in decades." "When you have Head and Shoulders patterns especially on the larger time frames the peak in volume is always on the left shoulder or the head." Oil "had all the perfect kind of recipe to take out 2008 highs" and "failed miserably," and "the Cycles are showing you that the demand for oil is waning." "Most OPEC Cuts have happened guess when when demand was waning." On Shopify, "they read the room," and "they went back to profitability." "The best thing Amazon could do for itself is introduce a dividend." On gold, "every kind of push higher has been on lower volume," and "to me you're running out of buyers." MongoDB "looks like it's going to explode." "What is your plan if stocks never make that lower low that you were expecting?" He thinks "a lot of people are just gonna not participate." On Nvidia, "if I just get along here and set my stop at the base lows minus 50 cents or a dollar," "you'd be in the trade and you never would have gotten out."
He asked, "What happens if you prepared for the worst recession known to humankind that was coming to your doorstep and then it doesn't happen?" Target "looks like a distribution phase," and on PayPal, "there's a lack of accumulation." "I love Amazon I... think it's gonna have a very surprising couple weeks," because "false breakdowns usually result in fast moves." "Google is... poised to break out in June July July end of July August." On Twilio, "after the monster volume down there's been two monster volume weeks accumulation." His big trade of the week: "I bought the shop 60 calls for five cents a piece." On Hut 8, "there's just accumulation all over this." On Tesla, "this three candle pattern the last three weeks looks really similar to how it bottomed in early January," after "a low volume pullback for almost two months right into the 50 retrace." The catalyst "everyone's been anticipating" is "the Cyber truck."
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