Chapters
00:06 Intro: Nick's Anniversary Night Off
01:07 Sideways for Three Months
01:37 GP: Microsoft and the Break-Even Crew
05:17 GP: The SPY's 23-Year Double Top
07:21 Risk Management and Dead Money
09:52 Ben: Screen Time and the Grind
10:53 GP: A Psychology Shift
12:30 Ben: $25 a Trade at Datek
13:01 Buying Bottoms Versus Breakouts
14:34 GP: Strength Begets Strength
16:11 GP: Amazon's Dead Money
18:14 Ben: Bottoms Can Be Messy
19:46 GP: Disney, PayPal and Square
22:21 GP: Tesla Under 123
23:21 Ben: It's All Time Frame
24:55 GP: Friday's Capitulation Volume
27:30 Ben: Arthur J. Gallagher
28:30 Stick to Your Rules
31:04 Ben: How He Draws Trend Lines
33:39 GP: Top-Down From the Monthly
37:11 Ben: Stochastics and RSI Across Time Frames
39:45 GP: Disney at the 200-Month
42:19 Ben: The Big Short
46:29 Apple Buying Disney?
47:00 The Quarterly Stock Challenge Rules
51:37 Enphase
54:40 GP: Netflix's 397.50
56:48 Fluor, ARLP and Coal
59:54 UiPath
1:01:29 GP: Ross Stores
1:01:59 Ben: Qualcomm
1:03:33 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #82 went out live on Monday evening, August 28, with Ben and GP, while Nick took the night off for his anniversary. With the market sideways for three months, GP told the story of the break-even crew in Microsoft and the SPY's 23-year double top. The two debated buying bottoms versus breakouts and walked through how they set up charts from the monthly down. Netflix's 397.50 level and Disney's 200-month moving average came up, and they set the rules for next week's quarterly stock challenge.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "this Market is starting to make me a little tired." When he first started, Datek "was 25 a trade," so "you had to make 50 bucks on a transaction otherwise you're losing money." "I think buying the breakout is a safer way at least for me to be positioned in some names," especially "if you're buying the retest of that breakout." "Bottoms can be messy," and "all of a sudden you're down 8 12 15 in another week or two." "We all have systems and styles that work for us and stick to the plan until it doesn't work anymore." "I have done really well buying QQQ puts in the mornings... and I'm out within an hour," but "I can be bearish the first 30 minutes of the day and bullish for the rest of my life and that doesn't make me a bear." He called Amazon "my largest position."
"I find that I get in the most trouble when I think the rules don't apply to me anymore," and "there are days where mentally I'm not in the game." When he sets up a chart for the first time, he looks at the line chart to find the trend, then turns the candles back on, and "I also really love parallel channels." "There's nothing wrong with a trend line being taken out to the upside or downside and then recover." He watches stochastics and RSI across time frames, since "it all boils up or melts down." He has put 20% of every paycheck into the market since 2006 or 2007. His dad's retirement was postponed by the financial crisis. On Netflix, "the setup for longer term doesn't look bad to me." He likes Qualcomm "down here in around this 110 area," since "if semis are going to come back qualcomm's going to be part of that." He's firing his newsletter back up in September.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "this is what it looks like when there's not free money." He bought Microsoft around 24, watched it gyrate between 24 and 40 for years, and sold when it broke out. "I was part of the break-evener crew." "When you have a 13-year base and it breaks out it usually does not look back." The SPY is "up a hundred and eighty four percent since 2000," and "it took 23 years to break out of the double top from 2000 to 2008." "Once we reclaimed the 2000 and 2008 highs is when the real bull market began." "Strength begets strength," and if you buy the retest of a breakout and it holds, "you never look back." On Amazon, "I haven't bought any I haven't sold any," since "the dead money for Amazon could be one year could be 16 years," so he wants to wait for the breakout. Disney, PayPal and Square haven't participated this year, and "there's nothing on the charts that says you should be buying these." He's "been pounding the table on fresh for a long time and I'm not even in it." On Tesla, "you had an opportunity for three or four weeks to buy under 123." Friday's NQ and ES contract volume was near November 2022 levels, "showing capitulation," and "there was no reason to be a bear after like 11 o'clock on Friday."
He always starts with the monthly. The QQQs probably won't get back above last month's close at 383.68 this week, but getting back above the 370.07 open would put in an inside month. The five-month moving average, which rejected price all through 2022, is now holding. On the weekly, "we're in the top part of last week's Wick which is always a good sign," and on the daily, the second try at the 50 SMA made a higher low. "Multiple things that are aligning from the monthly all the way down to the Daily." Disney is at its 200-month moving average, "a pretty pretty important area." He bought LEAPS earlier, decided it wasn't bottoming and got out around break even. If it breaks under, there are opportunities above the 67 range. On Netflix, "it trades like 11 out of 12 weeks of the quarter." It retested the 397.50 gap close "almost to the penny," and "as long as it holds this 397.50... I think it's fine." Ross Stores has been in "a really constant steady" uptrend, but "it's a slow mover."
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