Chapters
00:00 Intro: Labor Day and Nick's Return
02:11 The QQQs' Big Weekly Bar
03:11 GP: Stay on the Right Side of the Trend
04:44 Ben: Chop in September, Then Off to the Races
05:16 Nick: Still Bullish
06:51 GP: The SPY's Adam and Eve Bottom
08:24 GP: Regional Banks and a Broadening Rally
09:57 Nick: The QQQs Haven't Topped
11:28 GP: Bullish Engulfing on Volume
13:36 Nick: The 350 to 380 Range
15:08 GP: Rotation Isn't a Bear Market
16:10 Ben: Cash Over Gold
17:42 Nvidia After Earnings
20:19 Nick: Nvidia Is Just Getting Started
25:29 Ben: Zero-DTE Puts and Time Frames
26:32 September Forecasts
29:09 Nick: All-Time Highs by Quarter End
29:41 Ben: 400, a Scare, Then a Rip
32:51 GP: The 397.85 Monthly Close
33:53 The Fed
35:26 GP: The Quarterly Bar
36:27 Netflix's Monthly Tight Range
38:33 Ben: Pot Stocks and Schedule III
41:43 Unity, Weight Watchers and On Holding
45:26 IPOs and Roblox
46:29 ON Semiconductor and Lattice
50:13 3M and SLV
52:51 Quarterly Stock Picks
54:23 Nick: Fastly
56:56 GP: Wayfair
1:00:31 Ben: Tesla
1:02:41 Rivian
1:04:17 Asana and Zscaler
1:04:47 Home Depot and Lowe's
1:06:21 Okta, Elastic and Viavi
1:08:26 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #83 went out live on Labor Day, Monday evening, September 4, with Ben, Nick and GP, and Nick was back after missing the prior week. The QQQs had just posted a big weekly bar, and the hosts made their September calls, debated Nvidia after earnings and looked at the broadening rally in regional banks and energy. They closed by drafting their quarterly stock picks for a friendly contest that runs to the close on December 4: Fastly for Nick, Wayfair for GP and Tesla for Ben.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said "I think I'm still bold I think it looks great," and "I like the weekly time frame almost more than anything else." On the QQQs, "you could probably use that 350 54 is kind of a floor right there," and losing it might set up "another leg" toward the 330s. His 30- and 40-week moving averages are both curling up. The QQQs "are up you know 50 plus percent from low to high" while the S&P is only up 30%, and "I don't necessarily think that the QQQs are topped out." He sees "a pretty defined like 380 350 range," and "you only need two to three of those" mega caps moving higher to lift everything else. Google "has looked stronger than most of the rest." On Nvidia, "I'm kind of in GPS camp where I think it's just getting started like it literally just broke it just broke out in May." On the QQQ weekly, he used 308 to 310 as his breakout and held the 0.382 retracement off the July 21 bar, so "I would definitely say this quarter going into the end of the year it's all-time highs." His quarterly pick is Fastly: "I think we can pull a double out of it," from 24 to 50. He likes Zscaler on the daily, and "16250 is kind of my next pivot I just want to see a break through that on some volume."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said Cookie_M "feels like this is a lot like the cycle we were in back here coming out of covid," and Ben sees "that... once we get into September we could chop a little bit sideways and then it's Off to the Races once the fall gets here." When the market sells off hard, "you want to be in cash" rather than gold, so you can deploy it. Coming out of the 2020 crash, he held more cash than he ever had, "I sold puts to open near the bottom," and "that's how I was able to get Marvel that's how I was able to get some of my cloudflare position." He uses "zero DTE puts on the QQQs and spy like multiple times a week," but "it all depends on time frame." His September thesis: "I think we're going to get up to 400 398 400 level," then a sharp pullback that scares people, "and then we're going to rip into October November December." He flagged the cannabis rally after news that the government may move marijuana to Schedule III. He noted that MJ is a static ETF while YOLO is actively managed, and "October starts the beginning of" cannabis seasonality. On ON Semiconductor, "I'm so salty that I never got active in" it, and "it's respected the 50 it's respected the 20 the whole way."
He set the rules for the quarterly contest: over a $1 billion market cap, above $10 a share, long only, judged at the close on December 4. He was going to pick Airbnb but worried about how its S&P 500 inclusion would play out by December. "I gotta admit Tesla looks phenomenal and I think Tesla is going to go back to all-time highs in this time frame," about 65% higher.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "until that Trend changes why not just stay on the right side of the train," since the QQQs reclaimed the weekly 21 or 20 moving average in the first week of January. On the SPY, "you have that... straight line down from August 2022 to October 2022," and it came back to test the Adam and Eve area and held. "This is what bull markets do." Energy, regional banks and others are joining "more of a broader base rally," and the KRE "exploded on Friday." In the SPY, "277 of the 502 companies were green for the year." He pointed to the QQQs' "monster bullish engulfing" in March on rising volume, and said "I think higher in all-time highs is is more than likely this year." "When you have rotation and names you don't have a bear Market." On Nvidia, "price action so far says inside week on Nvidia after a monster volume week," and "to me it's probably going to break higher." "Price action is everything."
For September, "we're gonna take out all-time highs." The QQQs' highest monthly close is 397.85, so that's where to watch, and the January 4, 2022 reversal bar near 402–403 is "gonna be really hard to take that kind of area out on the first try." On the quarterly chart, the QQQs have spent the entire body of the bar above the prior month's close. Weight Watchers IPO'd in 2002 at 29 and sits around 9, and GP doesn't see the growth. His original quarterly pick was AMD, which he's "hoping for... to take out all-time highs by the end of the year," but "my bigger pick is... Wayfair." "They showed a profitable quarter for the first time" in years and back-tested its base. "This has an opportunity to get back to the one kind of 35 140 area." With "monster short interest," it "could have a whip all the way back up to like 190."
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