Chapters
00:00 Intro: Sideways Action Into Powell
01:03 Jay Powell This Week
03:13 Nick: Range-Bound Action and Bigger Bases
04:39 Nick: The Qs Hold the 0.38 Retracement
05:51 A Head and Shoulders Look on the Qs
06:55 The IWM Looks Worse Than the Qs and the SPY
07:50 Semis: Daily Looks Bad, Monthly Still Up
10:35 Rivian Gives Back a Strong Morning
11:12 W Down Over 10% on a Downgrade
11:41 Roku, Square and PayPal: Pops as Exit Liquidity
12:31 Netflix Sells Off on Old News
13:10 AMD Fails to Hold 100
14:14 Moderna Gets Smoked, Apple and Google Hold Up
15:05 Energy Can't Break 94 on the XLE
17:00 Gold, GDX and GDXJ
19:01 Nat Gas and a Break Above 3.05
20:22 Intel, Micron and the Names Holding Up
21:33 Duolingo and the Solars
23:33 Financials: The XLF Breaks a Weekly Trendline
24:18 Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Citi
25:21 Visa, Mastercard and BlackRock
26:00 Blackstone's Monster Volume
27:16 Apple's Inside Week
28:38 XLC: Long Communications, Short Energy
29:56 TAN, First Solar and Monkey's Charts
30:33 Regeneron
32:11 Salesforce
32:39 AbbVie's Cup and Handle
34:12 Nikola and the Auto Strikes
34:59 Tesla Closes on the Low
35:42 CarMax, Carvana and the UAW Strike
38:59 LNG
39:19 Unity
40:02 Weight Watchers
41:04 TLT and the Two-Year at 5%
42:08 Nick Likes Schlumberger
42:36 Shorting Energy
44:56 Chipotle and Yeti
45:11 MercadoLibre After Hours
45:52 The Chinas, FXI and JD
46:45 Ambarella and the XBI
48:11 Lowe's and Home Depot
49:16 Ryder and Vertex
50:07 KLA, Lam Research and Discover
50:50 Williams-Sonoma
52:00 Cybersecurity
52:30 Quarterly Picks and Fastly
53:17 A Cookie Episode Next Week
53:28 Amazon's Candle
59:47 Stick to the Trade Plan
1:00:18 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #85 went out live on Monday evening, September 18, with Ben, Nick and GP. Nick was a little under the weather and called the tape range-bound, with longer-term bases building and the Qs holding a 0.38 retracement of the 300-310 breakout. The indices looked okay, but the hosts kept coming back to the damage underneath: pops in names like Roku were acting as exit liquidity, AMD lost 100, energy still could not break 94 on the XLE, and Apple put in an inside week. One of the hosts said he was shorting energy and looking to go long communications.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick, who was under the weather, called the tape range-bound and said "people are on different timeframes." "Longer term traders, you know, are probably loving this. It's setting up a lot more bigger bases for higher prices," and letting the longer-term moving averages catch up, after action that "kind of seemed like the 50 day wasn't really going to hold on a lot of names." "Once we kind of get into that base building or that range bound action, the moving averages obviously become a lot less important." "What does it really matter if price holds the 50 day or the 20 day if we're in a range anyway." The more important thing, he said, is that "we see the upper ends of these, the moves of the year hold," and "the cues already have already held the point three eight from the basically like the 300 310 breakout," with "the 30-week is up to price or at least up to the low end of that range."
He brought up TAN and the solars, and from the chat he "likes Schlumberger." His quarterly pick, Fastly, "kind of took a little bit of a poopy too," after they had already expected it "was going to come in to the 20 area. It came in."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said it was "kind of sideways action," "a lot happened but not a lot happened," with the Qs "little lower but not much lower," about 15 basis points. He was "very busy today" and "made one trade 20%" before he was out by 10 o'clock, and later came back to a Friday lesson: he "laid out my trade plan on Friday" and then got in early on his "15 minutes" trade. "I'm early and it fucked me." "State trade plan. That's why you put it together... so you can stick to it."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "it's a frustrating market" because "the indices even, even today looked okay, but you continue to look at the damage that's happening underneath." "Everything's been sideways since May." Rivian "started out and had a really strong morning" and around lunchtime hit 24.40 to 24.42, then "precipitously loses the rest of the day" and "closed down almost 2%." "What happened to W today is down 10 over 10% and on on what a downgrade." "Some of this is starting to remind me of 2021," with "the indices are fine, but everything is getting smoked." "Look at Roku. Roku had a really good pop and it's been a sell almost every single day since." "These pops are becoming exit liquidity," and "square can't find a buyer PayPal can't find a buyer." Netflix "sold off on the news that was already announced in earnings." AMD "hasn't participated in any of the Nvidia" run and "came in below and 100 today 99 45 was the low of the morning," and "could still faff around in the upper 90s."
Moderna "got smoked" on "a monster candle" with "not a lot of volume," while Apple was "up almost a percent more than a percent and a half," and Google and Nvidia were green, leaving "a flat in this index, but to the selling underneath this is pretty substantial." Energy "continues to hold but won't break the pivot high," and "cannot break 94" on the XLE. "I'm about ready to short the XLE," and later, "I'm shorting energy and I am going long" XLC, which "looks like itching to break the hell out here" while "consolidating nicely at the 161 extension from the lows." Apple, after a week that "was largely panned" on China headlines, "put in an inside week." He also went through financials (an XLF weekly trendline break, Goldman and Morgan Stanley looking better than Bank of America, strong candles in Citi, BlackRock, and "monster volume" in Blackstone, including a print he questioned at 117 million shares), called Salesforce "no bueno," and said AbbVie had "a very nice cup and handle" among names he almost bought. Tesla "closed on the low of the day today, but the volume was still relatively light," with a lot of people "trying to watch the 300 level." On the quarterly contest, he did not recap the full standings, said "we have two months," and added, "we're going to be sideways until December."
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