Chapters
00:02 Intro: Cookie_M's Quarterly Visit
01:05 Cookie_M: Waiting for Buying Opportunities
03:35 GP: The Nasdaq Composite's Adam and Eve Bottom
05:16 Nick: Measured Move to All-Time Highs
06:19 Cookie_M: Cautiously Optimistic
08:24 Cookie_M: The SPY Monthly Since 1994
11:02 Cookie_M: 465 and an Inside Year
14:06 Cookie_M: The Nine Monthly and 20 Monthly MAs
17:10 Cookie_M: The Parabola and 642 by 2025
19:44 Cookie_M: The Less Bullish Path
21:18 Cookie_M: The ES Ellipses
23:51 Cookie_M: Expect This Price Action
24:53 Nick: Consolidation Near the Highs
25:25 GP: The 5.5% Opportunity Cost
27:31 Cookie_M: Accept the Volatility
30:03 Cookie_M: Into the Santa Claus Rally
35:39 Cookie_M: VIX Ranges in a Bull Market
39:46 Cookie_M: Sell VIX 13, Buy VIX 18
41:18 Cookie_M: VIX Levels Line Up With Moving Averages
44:23 Cookie_M: Buying Quantifiable Fear
45:24 Cookie_M: Apple's Channels
46:56 Cookie_M: Identical Consolidations
48:58 Cookie_M: Tesla's Range
52:32 Cookie_M: Microsoft's 314 Pivot
56:05 Ben: Option A, B or C
57:08 Nick: Risk Management
58:08 Cookie_M: Recalibrate Your Resolve
59:43 GP: The QQQs Didn't Die
1:02:15 Cookie_M: Crypto, Small Caps and Biotech
1:04:18 Cookie_M: Bitcoin's Wedge
1:07:21 Cookie_M: Zero Crypto, Zero FOMO
1:09:54 Wrap-Up: 4,700 by December
Market Hours #86 was the quarterly edition with Cookie_M, recorded on Monday, September 25, with Ben, Nick and GP. GP opened with the Nasdaq Composite's Adam and Eve retest after a rough week. Cookie_M walked through his SPY monthly roadmap, the ES ellipses, a VIX framework for buying "quantifiable fear," identical consolidations across Apple, Tesla and Microsoft, and Bitcoin's wedge, and he explained why he holds no crypto right now.
Cookie_M's setups, levels and trades
Cookie_M said "I've been holding my shackles and waiting for some buying opportunities and I think we're we're getting them." He is "cautiously optimistic." On the SPY monthly going back to 1994, 465 is the channel top, and "457 460... this was actually my target for the Year." He has floated 2023 as an inside year. "We've got to hold the 20 monthly moving average which is at 413," and "anything less than 413 would get me a little bit more nervous." The SPY is still below the August low near 433. The "mega bullish outcome" is that the nine monthly guides price through 465 and "we end up at 642 at the end of 2025." The less bullish case is a range between 420 and 465 where "we never really get above 500 for another year." On the ES, the October-to-June cycle and the current one have identical volatility. His buy areas were 4327 and 4316, and Monday's low of 4338 was "exactly a pivot on my four hour chart." "In order to be able to survive in this market we just need to have a much better appreciation of the type of price action we're going to see." Into the Santa Claus rally, he's looking for "a modest move higher 300 points 400 points from here till the end of the year."
In a bull market, the VIX moves in ranges, so "if in 2022 it was buy at vix 33 and sell at vix 20 well in 2023 is sell at vix 13 or 14 and buy at vix 18." The VIX was sitting just under his 17.62 pivot. If it closes above 17.50, "I'll be looking for the vix to get close to 20 by the end of the week," which would line up with about 413 to 419 in the SPY and still be a buyable dip. "Sustain moves above 25 would be worrying." "We're buying quantifiable fear based on the Vex," scaling in at 18 and adding if it reaches 20.79. "The market is putting in very consistent and identical consolidations," and the same boxes fit Apple, Tesla, Microsoft and Google. He had a limit order on Tesla at 236.50, and it found support at 238. At best, he expects Tesla "to hold this 230 get to 300 and stay in this range for the next six months." "If I can accumulate Tesla shares for free by selling at 257 and buying at 235 and doing it for as long as this range is there then I don't really mind." Microsoft's low was 315 against his 314 pivot, and "if we don't hold 314 then I will buy the dip at 300."
He sees small-cap crypto, small caps and biotech struggling together "until the macro Outlook changes." Ethereum has ranged from 1,500 to 1,800 and Bitcoin from 25,000 to 30,000. Bitcoin's wedge "closes here at 26 300 in the middle of October," and 27,000 is where the nine weekly, the nine monthly and the channel edge come together. A breakout opens 29,000, 32,000 and 35,000, and "even down to 24 000 it's probably going to be okay." "I haven't held any crypto since about a month and a half." "As soon as we'd retake the nine monthly moving average and we close above the nine weekly moving average in Bitcoin I will buy Bitcoin and ethereum again."
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said that if the Composite holds its range, "I'm in the same camp as you like if we hold this short term or near-term measured move is right back at all-time highs." Even if it took out the low, "the measured move is basically in line with like the 200 day." After all of 2022 in a downtrend and a year and a half of chop, "a lot of times what people are arguing about on the Internet is is time frame," and "we should be expecting some some consolidation up here at highs." On risk management, when price breaks one of the repeating channels, "you either stop out and reevaluate."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "the three of us have been bulls for a while." What he takes from Cookie_M is to "be open to whatever situation," with a base case but options B and C possible. A VIX breakout "would be like you said a paradigm change." "You gotta trade the market we have not the market we want." He hopes the S&P is back at 4,700 by December, when Cookie_M is due back.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP explained the Nasdaq Composite, with over 2,500 stocks and 55% tech, which is "coming back and re-testing the pivot" of its Adam and Eve bottom "almost to the... Penny." Last week, nearly every call strike in the mega caps was obliterated, which "tells me that this was gamma driven that it wasn't actually selling on a wholehearted level." The measured move out of this retest goes right back to all-time highs. With treasuries paying about 5.5%, investors face an "opportunity cost," which explains the hesitation and quick drops. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Netflix and Tesla all fell hard, but the QQQs were only down about 3.5% last week, so "maybe there's something else is going on here." "I'm still in the it's a structure and flows conversation... the derivative derivatives Market is driving a lot of the action."
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