Chapters
00:00 Intro: Cookie_M Is Back Intraday
02:15 Cookie_M: The QQQ Monthly
05:52 Cookie_M: Hold 379
07:56 Cookie_M: Consolidation Near 440
10:35 Cookie_M: Don't Miss the Breakout Window
11:36 The Macro Doom Mindset
16:47 Cookie_M: ES Futures Cycles
20:22 Cookie_M: Trend Changes at Boundaries
23:54 Cookie_M: The Egg
28:05 Cookie_M: The VIX as a Thermostat
29:38 Cookie_M: 4630 and the Back Test
32:14 Cookie_M: 5,000 by March
34:17 Manage the Opportunity
37:55 Ben: How Do You Ride the Trend?
38:55 Cookie_M: Two Types of Uptrend
39:56 AMD and the Nine-Day
41:27 Cookie_M: Tesla's Messy Uptrend
46:02 Cookie_M: Can Tesla Morph?
49:34 Cookie_M: Tesla to 270
51:36 Cookie_M: Bitcoin Targets
56:42 Cookie_M: Bitcoin Monthly
1:02:47 Opportunity for 2024
1:03:20 Quarterly Picks Invite
1:03:51 GP: Nikola
1:06:23 Nick: Behavioral Moving Averages
1:08:57 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #97 was a Thursday intraday session with Ben, Nick and GP and their quarterly guest Cookie_M. Cookie_M walked through the QQQ monthly, his ES futures cycles, the VIX as a thermostat, two types of uptrend using AMD and Tesla, and his Bitcoin targets. He was also invited into the Q1 stock picks. GP talked up Nikola, and Nick closed with how he uses moving averages to spot behavior changes.
Cookie_M's setups, levels and trades
Cookie_M likes this market even though it's "really bouncing around," because it makes him think "a little deeper." On the QQQ monthly, his early warning for a breakout lined up with the nine-month moving average at 358. He planned to hedge below it, but the QQQs powered through and closed above the breakout. This month's low is 382, and a back test to 379 was fine with him. He credited GP's "lockout rally" call: "as long as we hold 379 nobody's going to be able to get in." He's looking at 420 to 440, where he expects a long consolidation. "If we can do 20% in 2024 that still be a good year." People who are slow to jump on breakouts end up "scraping and surviving for six months." His answer to macro-doom thinking: "why don't you let price tell you," because "price won't lie." He'd switch off financial TV and learn price action: "I'm charting the universe behind the candles."
His ES daily shows two complete cycles in 2023. "There's always a lower and higher channel," and "if a trend's going to change... it's likely to happen at a boundary." He sees the VIX acting as "a thermostat" to speed up and slow down the market. He's looking for ES to reach 4630, back test toward 4605 or 4610, then break higher, with 5,000 by March if the curve holds. "You're not going to get Wealthy by managing risk... you only get wealth if you manage the opportunity." The easiest uptrend follows the nine moving average on any time frame. AMD's uptrend held the nine for a month, and if you get shaken out, "this is a new trade." Tesla's uptrend is the messy kind, finding the 20 instead of the nine, so he holds a smaller swing position. He's looking for about 270 on Tesla, then a test of the nine-week near 240 to 250. How it reacts there will tell him "how quickly gets to 400 or not," and for a messy trend he'd use LEAPS.
He bought Bitcoin around 26,000 just before it broke higher, with 45,200 as his exit area and 47,000 as the target. He scaled out a third as close to 45 as he could and is "still holding two-thirds." Ideally it holds 42,100 and then "going ballistic means at least 55,000." Bitcoin is holding the breakout above its October 2021 high. Each of its "floors" has been an 800% move, and his near-term target is 59,000 to 60,000, possibly by February. "Whilst it holds the N9 monthly moving average there's no reason why anybody shouldn't be holding at least a partial position." For 2024, he thinks small caps, biotech and crypto are all setting up. On Nikola, he'd buy it only above the nine-month moving average, look for the 20 after that, "and if it doesn't under the bus."
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said he doesn't chart the same way, but "my thought process is very similar." He uses moving averages for behavioral identification: find the moving average a stock respects, and when it's taken out, "okay behavioral change something something's different here." Information moves so fast that people end up "micromanaging these trades... on a daily basis." Bears came out after Wednesday's ugly candles, but "the volume wasn't really there on a lot of them either." He got chopped out of a couple of names, but in an uptrend, "they're trying to scare you or wear you out of these positions."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said the summer pullback was a consolidation, though "I don't know that I would call it major," since it had more anxiety than fear. With AMD up about 8% today, he asked how to ride a trend when the gut reaction after a big day is to look for mean reversion, "and I guarantee there's people out there buying puts at every spot during the day." Cookie_M credited him with the question about holding onto positions. Ben invited Cookie_M into Monday's quarterly stock picks, which go to whoever has the biggest percentage gain. He noted that GP came in last and is now swinging for the fences. He thanked Cookie_M for the quarterly hour: when all their different styles line up, "that gives me more conviction in how I'm doing and how I'm trading."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said the summer "all really depended on what you were holding," because if you held names like Roku or Shopify you were down 50% in a few months. He teased Nikola for the quarterly picks. "I see volume I see accumulation across the board," with "a lot a lot of accumulation in the stock and very little selling." He admits "I don't know why it would go up," but he didn't expect Carvana's 900% this year either. "It's a garbage stock... I'm not saying invest in it okay it's just a trade."
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