Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:45 Nick: Three-Week Tights in Big Caps
02:48 Nick: Palantir's Failed Breakout
05:22 GP: The Lockout Rally and Rotation
07:58 GP: Nvidia Is Not a Bubble
09:00 GP: Google and Amazon Catch-Up
10:33 GP: DoorDash, Shopify and Roku
11:04 Coinbase Doubles
13:10 GP: Google's All-Time High
14:13 GP: The QQQ Gap
15:45 The Meta Gap
18:20 Ben: You Don't Need All Seven
20:53 GP: Where Money Rotates Next
23:29 Nick: The January Effect
25:02 Energy, Gold and Metals
26:40 Ben: Reasons for a Rally
27:14 GP: Small Caps Need Lower Rates
28:51 Quarterly Picks Results
32:31 New Picks and Nikola
37:06 Ben: Who's Buying Nikola?
40:42 Nick: A Wild 2024
42:15 Nick: Costco, Snowflake and Unity
45:54 Nick: Roblox and Unity Setups
47:29 GP: Unity Accumulation
48:31 GP: The XBI Double Bottom
51:35 GP: Home Depot, Goldman and XLF
52:39 GP: Robinhood
55:12 Elon and the Cybertruck
1:03:59 StockTwits Popups
1:04:30 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #96 went out live on Monday evening, December 4, with Ben, Nick and GP. After a sloppy session, they talked about three-week tights in big caps, the lockout rally and rotation into high-short-interest names, Google and Amazon as mega-cap catch-up plays, and small caps' need for lower rates. Ben tallied the quarterly picks, which all finished red, and GP floated Nikola. They also covered Unity, Roblox, the XBI's double bottom, Robinhood and a debate about Elon.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said that, other than Palantir, everything on his radar behaved well. "A lot of the big cap names I've been eyeing have kind of put in three-week Tights," so he was happy to see weakness. Palantir was the one that got hit, down almost 10%. "If a breakout fails it's likely going to head back to the low end of its range." Palantir's range runs from 14 to 20, with a gap from 15 up to about 17.40 that lines up with the 50-day. He expects it to test the gap rather than fill it, and he would buy around 17 to 17.25. He passed on Coinbase even though he was watching it. Apple, Amazon and Google all put in three-week tights, and "I'd rather trade Google than than Amazon." Into year-end, "the things that have been acting well are going to going to continue to rip," with a pause in big caps more likely in January.
He has a feeling 2024 "is going to be a wild freaking year" with the election. He likes Costco, JPMorgan, DoorDash and Cloudflare. Snowflake is getting ready for a stage-two move, with 193 as the trigger and risk to about 178. He owns Snowflake and Cloudflare but not Datadog. Roblox's real move doesn't get going until it's over 48 to 52, but its three-week tight on the 200-day is "an awesome cheater entry," risking to about 35. Unity is similar, with resistance around 32 or 33 and a real move above 50. "The longer they build these bases it's just it's Energy building."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said he and GP are long Coinbase. He wrote this weekend that "you don't have to have all the Magnificent Seven going... higher all the time for the QQQs to go higher," and with the IWM up 1% today, "there is rotation going on in the market." He thinks Tesla and Amazon "could be two of the better Mega caps" through the end of the year and Q1 2024. Microsoft bounced back like the QQQs, and if three or four mega caps hold, the QQQs "aren't going to you know fall off the table." He thinks the XLF looks strong too. Meta could dip to about 295, the low end of its range, which would set up like Google, and he has no position. Crude at the bottom of its range and a weak dollar "are all reasons to be bullish stocks."
He ran the quarterly results. On the longs, Fastly was down 24.62%, Wayfair 18.44% and Tesla 3.8%. On the shorts, Palo Alto was up 18.42%, Super Micro 6.4% and Lululemon 12%. GP took "The Biggest Loser" at negative 36.86%, Nick was second at negative 31.02%, and Ben won at negative 15.8%. New picks come next week, plus a 2024 pick. On Nikola, he checked Finviz and found only insider sales. In the Elon debate, he said "I'm a shareholder of Tesla right now so I want everything to be the best." But self-driving keeps coming "next year," and the Cybertruck "was supposed to be a $40,000 vehicle it's going to be closer to a $70,000 vehicle." "I can I can be a shareholder and still not be happy with things he does."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP has been in the "lockout no give backs camp." The QQQs opened at 386.09 and closed right back into the gap. "I personally think we're we're probably in a rotational Camp again." "As always Netflix leads," and high-short-interest names like Carvana, Unity, Path and SoFi are rotating through, which he sees as "the tail end of the move in these names." He thinks mega caps finish the year strong. On Nvidia, "this is not how Bubbles behave," since it gapped up 30% on May earnings and has gone sideways for five months. He'd focus on Google and Amazon to play catch-up: Amazon got back to 147 and Google to 140, and each was sold again, "on less and less volume each time." He prefers Google, with all-time highs at 155 "on radar" by January OpEx. DoorDash is breaking out of a long base, and with follow-through, "dashes going to like 130 or so." Shopify and Roku are consolidating, Coinbase is up 100% in five or six weeks and may need to rest, and Alibaba keeps getting obliterated.
The QQQs bought the gap fill at 383.71, so "the lockout rally continues." A close under that 383 area could mean further weakness. He sees the small-cap moves in names like Square and Disney as mean-reversion trades, with profit-taking and tax-loss harvesting rotating money back into mega caps. Path is breaking out "on the highest volume ever" on the weekly, so be careful, while "shop Roku are all ready for stage two moves." Mega caps sold off on higher rates and a higher dollar while small caps had a bid, which is "probably not sustainable" since about half of small caps are unprofitable and need lower rates. Floating Nikola for 2024, "there's a lot of volume off this base," and "it's almost the same setup bar for bar" as Carvana. He noted that BlackRock and Vanguard have been adding.
On Unity, "I love the accumulation," much like Path. A break of the weekly 50 near 32.96 could take out the range high around 60. The XBI "basically put in like a massive double bottom on the monthly," after taking nearly a year to retest its October 2022 low. "Double bottoms are are pretty seismic events," and above the 80 to 85 area, a bigger move comes. Home Depot looks good after nine straight down weeks, and he likes Goldman, consumer discretionary and the XLF breaking out of the top of its 2008 consolidation base. On Robinhood, the call buying is speculative, so he'd set an alert at 14, since it has been in its base since January 2022. In the Elon debate, "you're talking about a product that has changed the way the industry works," and "the vast majority of the products he has talked about he has delivered on."
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