Chapters
00:00 Intro: Happy New Year
02:05 GP: Hoping 2024 Is a Great Year
04:39 Nick: Managing Expectations
06:43 GP: Mega Caps Are Consolidating
09:52 GP: Netflix Leads the Way
12:59 GP: Moves Come After January OpEx
15:02 Nick: A January-to-March Road Map
17:39 GP: The QQQs to 430
20:42 GP: Treasury Money Comes Back
22:44 What Are We Buying?
23:15 GP: Snowflake Isn't Stage Two Yet
27:20 GP: Disney Did What Square Didn't
29:27 Nick: Stick With Stage Two Names
31:31 Coinbase or Robinhood?
34:09 Nick: Keep Playing What's Working
35:09 GP: AMD, Intel & the Catch-Up Trade
37:41 GP: No Dividend Names
39:47 ARK & Moderna
42:55 Tesla's Delivery Numbers
43:58 Financials Look Great
45:33 Roblox & Rivian's Puts
48:38 Too Good to Be True?
49:09 GP: Oil's Monthly Golden Cross
55:29 Ben: Bitcoin at 45,000
58:04 Ethereum, Solana & Altcoins
1:01:44 The Halving Countdown
1:02:50 Ben: Pivoting on China
1:04:23 GP: Running Out of Sellers
1:05:54 Q1 Picks & Wrap-Up
Market Hours #99 went out live on New Year's Day, Monday, January 1, with Ben, Nick and GP, who called in from New Zealand where it was already January 2. GP said the mega caps have spent six months consolidating, not distributing, and the QQQs' yearly candle took out the prior two years' highs. Nick is "wildly bullish" but expects some chop after nine straight weeks up. The hosts covered Netflix as the year's tell, when moves tend to start, what to buy, Snowflake versus Shopify, Coinbase or Robinhood, dividend names, oil's monthly golden cross, Bitcoin, altcoins and China.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said he's trying to manage expectations: "we've been up what seven eight nine weeks now," and "some of the extended names are going to pull in a little bit." He could see choppiness the first few weeks as money rotates around. "Obviously I'm... wildly bullish," and over the year "I think we steamroll ahead." The last time his journals show him feeling this way was the end of 2019, when Tesla was breaking out, though he isn't predicting a COVID-type event. He thinks last year's January-to-March action on the QQQs is a similar road map, a run off the lows and then a grind sideways into the 50-day. "I'm positioned for either." If they correct, there are names he wants to add lower, and "I'm already like crazy long," so he's fine adding on strength too.
He'd be "hard pressed to see the QQQs under 400," and "I wouldn't be surprised to even see them hold the 20 day," or "393 395 if we did start to pull back." Even if they correct, "I think it will be very very shallow," and the lockout rally continues unless there's a major character change. He likes Robinhood's look on the back of crypto. On Snowflake, he noted the number of funds involved "literally hasn't changed in the last four quarters," even with EPS growing and accelerating. He isn't buying beaten-up names: stick with names that have already gone stage two, since what comes next for them "is basically just a correction" and then continuation. With $20,000 to put in Coinbase or Robinhood, he'd go Coinbase, since "there's just a... ton more accumulation in coin." "I wouldn't be surprised to see coin go 400 plus," while Robinhood could get back to its IPO range in the 40s.
"I think you just keep playing with what's working." He doesn't think you need to go find the next Nvidia or the next Coinbase: "Nvidia looks great," AMD "looks great," "so I say keep going with what's working." Asked about dividend names, "I'm sticking with growth, what's working." He'd be watching Moderna, along with how the IBB and XBI behave. Financials look great to him, and he tends to watch JPMorgan, which has basically the same chart as Goldman. Among Chinese names, he likes Li Auto's monthly, and PDD "looks amazing too."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "you only need a couple of these mega cap names to really start the fire again," regardless of what small caps do. He's big in AMD and Amazon, and "neither one of those stocks have reached their all-time high yet." On crypto, Bitcoin touched 45,000, and "I think that we're not quite in alt season but we're getting closer." He has charted the 46s as the next speed bump for months, and it keeps stepping higher until it breaks a moving average. "All dips are getting bought up," and December was basically a month of consolidation.
He's pivoting on Chinese stocks: "I love Chinese stocks." The risk is government headwinds, but Alibaba has been on his watchlist for a couple of weeks, and he's already in Nio. In the Q1 picks check-in, his Freshworks trails Nick's United Rentals and GP's Advance Auto Parts slightly.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP is excited "to see it actually work out and play out" after the hosts' talk about markets being flat, not in a downtrend. GE has still "not made a higher high in 24 years," even after doubling last year. The mega caps have "spent the last six months consolidating." Nvidia has been in a roughly 150-point range since May as it's accumulated, and Google, Tesla, Netflix and Microsoft have been consolidating since July. "The next leg is setting up here." The QQQs closed at 409.52, a dollar above the 2021 open-and-reverse level, and the yearly candle "took out the last two years highs," "emphatically a very bullish" move. He doesn't agree that mega caps won't have a good 2024 because it's all about small caps.
Netflix reports January 19, and "its reaction most likely will determine how the year goes." It's the only mega cap that hasn't filled its 2022 gap down, and "if Netflix breaks out on earnings the markets are going to have a phenomenal year in 2024." He thinks moves usually happen after January OpEx, because of heavy LEAPS and positioning flows. Last year the market took off after January OpEx. His thought is the QQQs extend to about 425–430 and then pull back to retest this area, "that's your lockout rally." He sees the mega caps "as consolidative, not distributive." Money parked in Treasuries while people waited for the macro to improve could flow back in around late January to March, "a new wave of buyers."
He doesn't see what others see in Snowflake: it's a stage one base that ranged between 140 and 198 in 2023 without a big move higher. Shopify is the stage two setup he likes, after a 200% move from 28, a 50% correction and now an attempt to reclaim the rising weekly 200 SMA. Disney "did what I wanted Square to do," with a reflexive move back to the 200 SMA, a December consolidation and a golden cross about to happen: "I think this is the start of a very beautiful and powerful move higher in Disney." Strength will remain in names like Shopify, Roku and Coinbase that pulled back 38–50% after big moves and are pushing back toward the top.
He thinks "AMD probably outperforms Nvidia this year," and Intel could have "a monster year" with government backing. He expects Treasury money to chase individual catch-up names, not dividend payers, since T-bills still pay about five and a quarter percent. Altria broke and closed below its 2022 lows despite a 9% dividend, and Verizon closed well below the prior year's lows on heavy volume. ARK's largest holding is now Coinbase at about $1.1 billion, not Tesla. Financials are consolidating above a 13-year base. On oil futures, the 50-month is about to cross over the 200-month, a golden cross on one of the largest time frames: "this could be a very powerful year for oil," likely "a couple year" move. He thought it would hit 54, but it kept getting bought. Some beaten-up names like Square "just run out of sellers."
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