Chapters
00:00 Intro: The First Day of Spring
01:14 Bitcoin Pulls Back 10%
06:52 GP: Strong Things Stay Strong
07:58 Ben: The Halving & the Early Run
09:33 GP: A 10% Pullback Isn't a Lockout
11:05 Nick: DraftKings, DoorDash & Uber
12:38 GP: The New Post-Earnings Drift
17:51 GP: XLF's 13-Year Base
18:53 What Do You Do When a Trade Frustrates You?
22:30 Ben: Waiting on Roblox
28:14 Nick: No Room for Dead Money
30:20 GP: Investor vs. Trader Time Frames
34:25 GP: Holding Netflix
35:26 Nick: Post-EPS Drift & the Lockout Rally
38:31 FOMC & Natural Gas in CPI
40:35 Bonds & the 10-Year
41:38 XLE vs. Oil
43:44 Nick: Small & Nimble
44:46 Dutch Bros & Lyft
46:50 Nick: DraftKings, Pfizer & Moderna
48:53 GP: Pfizer's Dividend
49:25 Ben: Nano-X & Recursion
53:36 Royal Caribbean & the Cruise Lines
56:40 GP: Boeing at 112
59:19 GP: Banks Lead the Next Leg
1:02:56 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #108 went out live on Tuesday evening, March 19, the eve of FOMC, with Ben, GP and Nick, who was on a ski trip in Colorado. Bitcoin had pulled back about 10% from near 74K, so the hosts set levels for a healthy retest. GP explained why most names now drift sideways after earnings and why XLF and the banks could lead the next leg. They also discussed what to do when a trade goes nowhere, plus Netflix, natural gas in CPI, bonds, energy versus oil, Lyft, Pfizer, Moderna, Royal Caribbean and Boeing.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said Bitcoin is extended, so "it could easily pull back more and still look good in the grand scheme of things." It has a bit of a head-and-shoulders look on the daily and could retest the previous breakout around 45,000–50,000. "I think charts are starting to really shape up nice," and his favorites are DraftKings, "just basing up here," DoorDash, which held the 20-day, and Uber. Amazon, Meta and Carvana have gone sideways since earnings in what he calls "post-EPS drift," where "there's nothing really tradable." He thinks that "plays perfectly into your lockout rally idea." He handles frustrating trades by letting trailing stops get hit. His four biggest holdings are his biggest positions, with five to 12 smaller trend trades, and "I don't have room for dead money in my... business plan." He said a long-term investor's worst enemy "is like the shiny object syndrome."
He has stopped being "so negative" on energy and asked why XLE is near its highs of the last couple of years while oil sits around 80–82. He's bullish: "it's just kind of like a timing thing." He thinks "it's a time to be setting alerts and staying on your toes," not to be in max position size: "just be small and nimble." He likes Lyft "a lot here," with a "big old round juicy bottom." Depending on your style, you'd add off the 20-day or through it, with a stop in the 14 range in the gap, or around 10 if you wanted a long-term position. DraftKings is "one of the better looking setups on the daily right now," and "GP's talked me into Pfizer." Moderna is curling and "looks like it could rip higher," with room for an easy 50–60 point run if it goes, though he doesn't like that the 200-day is still falling. He's in the same camp as GP that the market is going higher.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said the hosts have used Bitcoin as their risk-on gauge for months. It touched about 73.8K and was back near 62.1K, down about 10% on the week, with FOMC tomorrow. "If I'm putting my bear suit on, we can absolutely come into this 57, 56 range right above the nine weekly." A move to the nine-month would mean 40,000, "quite the drop." Polkadot, Link and the alts all pulled back, as did Solana, while Aptos held up. He thinks FOMC could set up "a very classic shake and bake higher," maybe after a dip, and called 55–56K "my last straw." With the halving about a month out, Bitcoin ran up about 154% from October at the highs, now about 114%. That pre-halving move is different, probably because of the ETFs and financial institutions.
He's waiting on Roblox, which has been "a nothing burger for months" since he started his position, but he still believes in it long term. "My biggest challenge is selling." He holds a large stake in AMD, and he worries that names that haven't participated "are going to get slaughtered" if the market pulls back, as in July to October 2023. He expects "no rate cuts" and "a big nothing burger FOMC." He flagged two charts from his brother, Nano-X and Recursion Pharmaceuticals. Recursion has accumulation on every drift down since July 2023, but both are "speculative names... no position whatsoever." His Freshworks pick was "not so fresh."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP wants Bitcoin to hold about 59.5K, roughly a 20% range off 74,000, the normal range at all-time highs. Below that, he sees the 51,000 area. A 50% correction to 45–50K "would be too deep," since "you want strong things to stay strong," and testing a breakout fast isn't a position of strength. A 10% pullback from here would only retest the breakout and "isn't lock out." He'd rather see the QQQs push toward 470–480 before a 10% correction, after being sideways since late January. He thinks the market is in a new regime of drifting sideways until earnings confirm: "every rip here continues to be sold." Netflix opened at 627 on Friday, sold all day, then gave back yesterday's 3-million-share move on about 203,000 shares. Even so, "nothing looks terrible." Unlike August–September 2023, "they're still not letting people in."
XLF built a 13-year base, broke out in 2021 and has spent two and a half years retesting it. Once it takes out the 41-and-change all-time highs, "this is just getting started," much like SPY in 2016. When a trade frustrates him, "just wait till it actually breaks out," as with gold. Goldman closed its December 1 bar near 380 and has spent 11 weeks failing to take out 400, so wait for confirmation. Investors build over long time frames: AMD went sideways from 2009 to 2016 and is up about 100x from there. Netflix, which he holds with cheapest shares around 164–168, was the first to bottom in May 2022 but keeps rejecting all-time highs even though "every single metric has improved." Still, "there's not a single technical thing that's broken yet." If it breaks, he'll handle it then and may give back about 10%.
He doesn't expect FOMC to surprise, noting Powell's history since 2021. He doesn't understand how piped gas in CPI keeps rising while natural gas is down 50% in two months, and the commodity looks ready for another leg down. He thinks the 10-year will drift lower toward about 3.5% eventually, which would be good for equities, and LQD and junk bonds are consolidating for a move. Oil has been sideways since November 2022 with lower weekly highs. Pfizer is "one of the best... low-risk long-term" holds, paying a little over 6%: "this is not a five-month position." He credits Royal Caribbean's management for leading the cruise lines. Boeing is the short he should have taken instead of Chevron, and if it gets to about 112–113 and holds, "it's probably a great buying opportunity." He thinks "these markets are going much higher" and that banks lead, and since financials are the last sector to participate, "the leg higher is multiple years here." He's hosting an X Spaces at 5 p.m. tomorrow.
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