Chapters
00:00 Intro: Back on a Monday Night
01:32 GP: Watch the Nasdaq Composite
05:42 Nick: Consolidation Looks Great
06:43 GP: Nothing's Breaking Down
07:47 GP: Square From 38 to 82
11:12 How Do You Pick Among Bases?
17:54 GP: Square's Road to the 200-Week
20:57 GP: Roku Needs Profitability
23:01 Bitcoin Back Near 70K
26:05 The Halving & the ETFs
27:40 Ben: Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto
29:44 Coinbase vs. the Miners
35:26 GP: Wayfair Is Talking to the World
38:34 Ben: Q1 Picks Recap & the Cookie Call
41:43 Symbotic & JFrog
45:22 Tesla Isn't Part of This Cycle
49:58 Ben: Backing Up the Truck on AMD
53:04 Arm, GlobalFoundries & Palo Alto
57:40 Palantir's 25
1:00:44 Where Would You Put $10,000?
1:06:31 Regional Banks & XLF
1:08:41 Wrap-Up: For Boom
Market Hours #109 went out live on Monday evening, March 25, with Ben, GP and Nick, who called in from a ski trip. GP said the focus should be on the Nasdaq Composite, which broke out over its 2021 highs on FOMC week, and he walked through how he bought Square at 38. The hosts covered how to choose among two-year bases, Bitcoin near 70K before the halving, Coinbase, Wayfair, JFrog, Tesla, AMD, Palo Alto, Palantir and where they'd put $10,000. Ben announced the April 1 quarterly call with Cookie_M at 11 a.m. Eastern. He also dedicated the show to his dog, Boom, who passed away that day.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said more consolidation or "a nice channel down would look great," and "I think stuff looks good... I think there are setups out there," with nothing breaking. When choosing among names, "you go with your strongest positions" and "allow the market to naturally dictate where you put money." Technically, "I want the moving averages on that weekly chart... stacked and curled up," with the 10-week curling up along with the 30 and 40. On Square, "the trade was on reclaiming 55," though he could argue for an entry in the 43s with a stop in the gap. On Bitcoin, it's "holding up really well" after pushing back to the 65,000–70,000 area, and "I'd buy it," though he'd probably buy other stuff first. He took on some ETH near last week's lows, his first ETH purchase in a while, bought Chainlink near the lows as well, and holds Avalanche, all through Coinbase and Robinhood. He remembered the hosts saying Robinhood and Coinbase over Riot and Marathon.
JFrog is "a big booty base" that looks like it has gone stage two and is flagging in a range from about 40 to 49. "I just care about it holding like 39 to 40." If the market rolled over, he'd also be happy buying in the low 30s, around the 200-day and the 28–30 stage one breakout. He thinks Tesla is a name you can dollar-cost average into in a Roth if you're a long-term believer. He loves the semis. Asked where he'd put $10,000, he said CleanSpark is probably one of the top setups right now, and he agrees with GP that Square "is ready to go stage two."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben asked how to choose among so many names basing near their lows, since "you can throw a rock but not every one of them is going to turn around." He thinks it's odd Bitcoin is pumping before the halving, which is less than 30 days out, and noted the new ETF money makes this cycle different. "I'm a firm believer in not your keys, not your crypto." He holds his crypto in his own wallet off exchange and owns none of the ETFs, though he wouldn't be afraid of them in a retirement account. He expects an Ethereum ETF around mid to late summer, when he'd probably hold some of both in his brokerage account. He thinks Robinhood is setting up the way Coinbase did before breaking out of its first leg. Robinhood is up 134% versus about 500% for Coinbase since the hosts flagged them over the miners. Coinbase is "a sniff away from 300," which he calls "the revenge of Cramer."
He owns Tesla but is "not adding here at all." He thinks "we could see lower," and it "looks like it's a little bit in peril to me." Tesla is only about 43% institutionally owned versus about 82% for Netflix, and if a retest of 100 breaks, "I think we're probably looking somewhere in the 60s." On AMD, "I would love to get a shot in the 160s or even... high 150s," and if so he'll be "backing up the truck." AMD is one of his largest positions, and he thinks it's bouncing and going higher but needs to collect its moving averages. It has lost the nine-week but holds the other weeklies, and a bounce at the 50-week would mean cheaper shares. "295, that's where we're going next." He wouldn't wait for a weekly close to buy a wick into the 50, given AMD's long wicks. He keeps selling calls against his shares. On JFrog, it bounced off the 50-week at the bottom of its wedge and is retaking the 20 and nine, and "I would feel comfortable down to the nine." He's only in Roblox, he joked, "because of you," meaning GP.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "focus should be on the Nasdaq Composite," a broad index of over 2,000 companies. He thinks a bull market goes mega caps, then large caps, then mid caps, with small caps last. The Composite spent four weeks trying to break its 2021 highs and broke out on FOMC week, which "isn't bearish," and "I think we go higher." He doesn't expect a pullback, likening it to the QQQs taking out 408. Consolidating names like Square, Wayfair, Palantir, Disney, Coinbase, Netflix and AMD aren't breaking down, while AppLovin and DoorDash are breaking higher slowly, China names have been "dead money," and even PayPal looks better. He waited patiently for Square at 38, where it priced in no growth at about 1.5 to 2 times sales. Buyers stepped in on earnings and took it straight to 80. Now 66 is the level, and with mean reversion to the 200-week at 129.04, "Square is going to 130." With Disney, he waited for the weekly 200 and added LEAPS on the first pullback in late December.
Roku's management "doesn't understand the task at hand," which is getting to profitability. Wayfair, his Q1 pick, "it's got all the tenets, all the building blocks to be so much higher," and "it's talking to the world and not everyone is listening." Nvidia's chart told you in January 2023 that something had changed, when it started holding its 21-week moving average, before the narratives came in. On Tesla, "it's not part of the cycle." Like Apple and Google, it's consumer-facing, not AI or crypto. It's testing heavy accumulation from January 2023, and if that breaks, "it goes lower." The 160 area at the January earnings high was the place to buy, and here it's in no man's land, likely to take out the 150.9 area at some point. If AMD's 164 breaks on a weekly close, "I think 130s is more where I want to get long."
Palo Alto has "a very traditional head and shoulders" setup: if 318 gets tested and rejected, it would likely confirm the topping pattern after its run from 130 to 380. Palantir isn't a true cup and handle, since "you don't have cup and handles after getting destroyed for 80, 90%." For a Scrooge McDuck-sized $10,000, he'd go conservative with Pfizer and its 6% dividend while he waits for the chart "to get more sexy." Over nine months, he'd buy Redfin, where "the accumulation on this chart is bananas," and he thinks it's "probably going to be above 18 if not higher." He's a willing buyer around 5.80–5.90 and likes it over Opendoor for its accumulation. XLF is now starting to break out of a two-year consolidation above the 2008 and 2021 highs.
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