Chapters
00:00 Intro: The Quarterly Update with Cookie_M
00:37 Cookie_M: Why Time Felt So Slow
04:14 Ben: Crypto's Shake
05:18 Nick: QQQs vs. SPY
08:24 Cookie_M: Tech Will Outperform
09:26 Cookie_M on the VIX & Mindset
17:34 Why a Lockout Rally?
19:08 GP: No Second Leg Without a Catalyst
22:17 Cookie_M: A Normal Bull Market, Slightly Steeper
25:22 Ben: Recency Bias
27:59 Cookie_M: Trade Less, Let the Trend Work
29:00 Cookie_M: The Parabola & AI
31:03 Cookie_M: The Symmetry Road Map
35:10 Cookie_M: Hold the Previous Month's Low
40:51 Cookie_M: Two Windows, 520 or 560
42:25 Cookie_M: The VIX Has to Break Lower
48:27 Cookie_M: QQQ 467 & SPY 566
54:36 Cookie_M: Routine Shakeouts Since November
56:38 Cookie_M: Bitcoin's Back Tests
59:13 Q1 Picks Results
1:04:31 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #110 went out live on Monday morning, April 1, with Ben, Nick and GP and their quarterly guest Cookie_M. The QQQs had gone sideways for about six weeks near QQQ 440 and SPY 520. Cookie_M walked through his symmetry road map, why holding the previous month's low is his line in the sand, and why the VIX has to break lower for SPY to reach the 560s and the QQQs the 470s. They also covered lockout-rally logic, recency bias and Bitcoin's back tests. Q1 results: Cookie_M won overall with SOXL (+78.2%), and GP took the non-leveraged crown with Advance Auto Parts (+49%).
Cookie_M's setups, levels and trades
Cookie_M said this quarter "felt like forever" because "everybody's been waiting for a pullback." The indices have been flat at levels that "make a ton of sense, like SPY 520, QQQ 440," which they had discussed back in September. This was one of his two windows where the market could "go nowhere for two or three months." SPY and the QQQs are both at key weekly and monthly resistances, so he expects them to move together, and "Tech will outperform." People struggled because the move "caught them completely off guard." After October, the market "changed character" with none of the usual 3–4% monthly pullbacks. Still, zooming out, it looks like a normal bull market, "maybe it's slightly steeper than normal." He has been saying since late last year to reduce trading: "let the trend do the work." He thinks the market is "at the end of a parabolic move," which forces steeper prices, and that "those who don't believe the market should do what it's doing" are the same people who dismiss AI.
His road map, shared on StockTwits in December, uses symmetry around periods of unrest. The post-2022 uptrend has the same gradient as the post-COVID leg, with the nine-month moving average guarding the bottom of the channel. Trading-wise, "all I'm looking for are higher monthly lows." The worst case he expects is two or three months sideways without breaking the previous month's low. Losing it would mean a correction toward the nine-month moving average. In 2021 the market pulled back to the 50-day about every six weeks, but this time it keeps bouncing at the 20-day. He sets aside an hour or two a week to read up on compute and AI. He expects any pullback to "be meaningless unless there's a catalyst" and thinks "everybody wants dips but I'm not sure whether this market is going to give you any."
There are two windows: consolidation at about 520 on SPY, or a move to about 560–565. He favors the second, with the QQQs at about 470–472, but "we need the VIX to break lower." The VIX's spikes are getting shallower. While it stays below the 50-week moving average, he's looking for a bear-flag breakdown. If it breaks, he expects the market "to go vertically high," and he plans to be fully invested rather than partly in. On the QQQs, the previous month's low was 432, so holding around 437 could be all the April dip, followed by a move to about 467. SPY 566 is a key pivot at the bottom of a long-term channel, and he thinks it could get there by around May before pulling back or going sideways. On the S&P, today's 5284 red candle looks nasty, but similar 1% shakeouts have come routinely since November. "I'll start getting worried if it goes below" the 5124 March low, and he was watching 5250. For Bitcoin, the weekly back test is 68,950 and the monthly about 65,950. He'd be fine down to 60,000, the previous month's low, and would hedge with a short if needed: "hold the weekly and monthly supports."
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick thinks the QQQs' daily range "definitely looks better" than SPY's, and IWM has "plenty of room between here and 200." Starting with no position, the QQQs have the better reward entry after moving sideways for about six weeks. SPY "just continues to melt" along the 20-day, and "it's hard for me to define risk if I don't have a very clear level." He's not one of the traders who are great at buying those trend-line taps. For the lockout-rally case, he argued that 2022 "did a phenomenal job at absolutely scaring everybody out," so "it's going to take a while now for people to really get on board with this train." His Q1 long, United Rentals, went from 505.14 to 721.11 (+42.75%). His Lemonade short went from 16.09 to 16.41, down about 2%.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben has been watching crypto closely, including Bitcoin dominance and the ETH-to-Bitcoin pair. He thinks "a little bit of pullback" is good for buying lower-cost crypto, "we're not going to zero on this quite yet," and there's "probably meat on the bone to the upside." He said "recency bias is a real thing." Many people's market memory "goes back from 2020 onward," with Robinhood making markets more accessible, so a dip means "it's got to go lower." Long-term charts show plenty of lower lows that reversed higher. His Q1 long, Freshworks, went from 20.52 to 18.21, down about 11%, which made him "the big loser this time." He won the short contest with YETI, up about 1.05%. New picks were due on a Friday X Spaces at the close, hosted by GP.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said he's been "arguing downtrend versus sideways since June 2022." On a lockout rally, he sees the 2008–2009 comparison as the same: a 60–70% index drop needs a second leg down, which needs a secondary catalyst, like Lehman and Bear Stearns. In 2022–2023 the economy "looked like it was getting stronger" and consumers were still spending. He "wholeheartedly" disagreed that 2022 was worse than 2008–2009, since back then the economy was in shambles. He thinks a "major monetary regime shift" explains the bifurcation: people can earn yield outside equities, so unprofitable names won't rally unless rates go back to zero. Names like Tesla and Wayfair "are just not part of the current cycle right now." He thinks the Nasdaq Composite, six to seven weeks at its 2021 all-time highs, "hasn't even broken out," and its breakout would be broad-based. His Q1 long, Advance Auto Parts, went from 57.80 to 85.90, about a 49% gain. His Chevron short went from 148 to 157.74, a 5.96% loss: "I should have stuck with Boeing."
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