Chapters
00:00 Intro: A Tuesday Afternoon Show
00:34 Nick: Thursday's Bar Is the Gauge
03:43 Nick: Mega Caps Back in Fashion
05:48 GP: A Nasdaq Composite Lockout Rally
07:53 GP: Tesla Is Sideways, Not a Downtrend
09:57 GP: Rates Are Restrictive Enough
12:00 Ben: Content in My Longs
15:40 Nick: SMH Ghost Candles
17:14 GP: SMCI Daily vs. Weekly
19:52 GP: Jamie Dimon's AI Note
21:55 GP: Netflix, Amazon & Rolling Into Tesla
26:33 GP: Fintech & Financials
28:38 Nick: Cybersecurity's Shape
30:44 Solar, GUSH & Enphase
32:47 Energy vs. Oil
37:30 GP: Starbucks' Possible False Breakdown
39:33 Moderna vs. Pfizer
40:04 Ben: MP Materials
41:06 Q2 Picks: Moderna, Tesla & JD
48:53 GP: Palo Alto's 318
50:30 Ben: SentinelOne's Gap
55:24 GP: Uber's Island Top
59:34 GP: Tesla FSD, First Hand
1:04:12 Nick: Minneapolis Without Parking
1:07:51 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #111 went out live on Tuesday afternoon, April 9, with Ben, Nick and GP. The show moved from Monday because of an NCAA-championship family holiday in Ben's house. With the market in "week seven of going nowhere," the hosts debated what releases the range, from a Nasdaq Composite lockout rally to CPI. They also covered SMCI and the semis, Jamie Dimon's AI note, Netflix and Amazon, cybersecurity, energy versus oil, Starbucks, Uber and GP's first-hand take on Tesla FSD. New Q2 picks: Nick Moderna at 111.60 (target 145), Ben Tesla again (target 295), and GP JD (target 40–41), to be checked around June 30.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said, "I think that Thursday's bar is your gauge." If we rally above it, "I'll step on the gas a little bit." If we take out its low, which coincides with the 50-day, he'd probably trim positions he doesn't have much room in and keep cleaning up his portfolio. He'd rather see the range tighten than turn "wide and loose" like SMCI, which is ranging from about 700–800 up to 1,200. "The megas are back in fashion a little bit." If Apple starts to lift, it would bode well for the group, since Google looks fine, Microsoft looks all right and Meta looks pretty good. More technical traders are noticing Tesla's descending wedge and channel. Netflix "is looking great," though it isn't even down to its 50-day and "is just melting higher," which is hard to enter without a position. He doesn't want to take on additional risk right now, "I'd rather add on strength," and he plans to scan, set alerts and maybe trim weaker names.
He thinks the SMH names are consolidating. His ghost candles from a few weeks ago project a protracted move like May to October 2023, and he believes they're "building cause for another rip higher," with maybe a longer break once the splits come. He likes how cybersecurity is shaping up. Zscaler and Palo Alto are off the 200-day and retesting last November's breakout, CrowdStrike "just completely held up," and Zscaler is hitting both its 200-day and 200-week. "I don't know how cyber security does not participate. It is with us for the rest of our lives," and he thinks it will "almost forever be on a watch stock list." He also thinks Enphase looks ready for a squeeze play, with its moving averages converging. He likes Moderna more than Pfizer, and for his Q2 pick he switched from HIMS to Moderna at 111.60, with a 145 target. He noted that a Minneapolis ordinance requiring off-street parking for new buildings went away a few years ago, so the rise of self-driving vehicles there will be interesting to watch.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben agreed with GP that "nothing is broken yet," but the grind higher has slowed. He thinks rate cuts probably wouldn't be a good sign for the economy or the market. "I'm just content to sit in my Longs and just watch it play out." He has cash on the sidelines for buying opportunities and put money to work before the latest trend took off, and "we haven't even broken the weekly nine yet." MP Materials, the old Molycorp, is up 19% on the week and still in a downtrend. "I'm not going to chase here but it definitely has my attention." He picked Tesla again for Q2, the first repeat in the competition, with a 295 target.
SentinelOne is one of his top five or six holdings. He likes that it's holding the gap it created, and "as long as it holds this 20 low 22, 21 area I think it's okay." He hasn't added more because he wants the moving averages to come in: the daily is starting to flatten, but the weekly nine is just now curling over the 20. He doesn't expect it back to 26–27 in the next couple of weeks. He added in the teens and has already bought back some of the shares he sold in the upper 20s, so he's "content to wait just a little bit longer" before adding to any cybersecurity name.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP is "ready for another lockout rally," and he thinks "this is not a QQQs conversation... it's a Nasdaq Composite conversation." The QQQs broke out from 408 to 450, while the Composite spent seven weeks consolidating at its 2021 all-time highs, riding the 9- or 10-week. He sees broad participation coming from names like Carvana, Square, Wayfair and Affirm. Tesla isn't in a downtrend but "is sideways since November 2020," the transition from growth to maturity. It's at the bottom of a third base, so it could go to the top of the range and back. With rates at 5.25% and inflation at 3.6%, rates are "restrictive enough," and the 2022 link between rising rates and falling stocks isn't there now unless rates go "from 4 to 8% like Jamie Dimon talked about."
On SMCI, the daily shows a head-and-shoulders, but on the weekly "that left shoulder... that volume is garbage." It's a low-volume flag retesting a gap fill, and it could consolidate for months the way Nvidia did from May to December 2023. He urged listeners to read Jamie Dimon's JPMorgan note on AI, which compares it to electricity, and said Nvidia is cheaper now than a couple of weeks ago. Netflix and Amazon "pull up my heartstrings": Amazon is "a hair away" from all-time highs but won't test them. Netflix has had 11 or 12 upgrades in three weeks, each "a reason to sell," so it could be a double top after a move of more than 230%. He's up about 220% and debating selling Netflix to roll into Tesla, which he doesn't see as dead money. He's happy buying all-time highs when there's a reason: gold has been "clear sailing" since its breakout, and silver is breaking out too. Fintech and financials stand out, since the group is consolidating at all-time highs and Square showed relative strength today.
Starbucks looks bad to him. It broke 89.21 on a solid red candle but light volume. If it reclaims about 89.20 by week's end, it's a false breakdown and potential double bottom, given its many accumulation bars since 2022. A position would use this week's low of 86.31 as the stop. His Q2 pick is JD, which "looks great to me" with the monthly MACD crossing, a three-week tight and rising volume, and he targets 40–41. His StockTwits prediction is a 315 May OpEx close for Tesla.
Palo Alto looks "insanely bearish" with one eye and "insanely bullish" with the other. Clear 318 and "it's going higher," or else it's a mean-reversion setup, maybe toward 230. Uber is weak, essentially making an island top, with a gap below 73.50, and it looked like distribution before the robotaxi news. He joked that "when it gets to $60 they'll announce a partnership." Testing Tesla's FSD free trial, he had one intervention in a 28-minute drive and none on a 55–60 minute trip to his dad's. He said it isn't 100% there but is very close, and he's still skeptical about mass adoption.
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