Chapters
00:00 Intro: Bags & GP, Nick on the Way
00:31 GP: The Non-Participants Are Dying
02:02 Tesla's Layoffs & Sell-It Mode
08:16 GP: Correcting Through Time or Price
11:25 GP: Gold Needs Rest
15:09 GP: Square's Symmetrical Base
16:13 Nick Joins: Excited by Corrections
18:27 GP: The Composite Held Its Gap
21:01 Nick: Dispersion Like July 2023
22:34 The McClellan & Levels That Hold
27:42 GP: Extreme Ticks & the VIX
30:17 GP: Tesla on the Verge
32:54 GP: 2017 vs. 2024 Money Regimes
34:58 GP: GLD 200–203 & Conflicting Signals
37:01 Does the Market Feel Dangerous?
42:08 Nick: What It Takes to Buy QQQs
44:40 Ben: Content Sitting on AMD & Amazon
49:22 Nick: Indices vs. Individual Names
52:29 GP: Use Earnings Candles as Pivots
57:13 GP: Why Apple's Earnings Matter Most
59:23 GP: SPY 480 or 458?
1:03:37 Nick: IWM's Breakout Failure
1:04:40 GP: Double Tops in MDY, Amazon & XLF
1:05:44 Nick: Writing Out If-Thens
1:09:54 GP: Volume Accelerates on Breaks
1:11:25 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #112 went out live on Monday evening, April 15, with Ben and GP, and Nick joined about 16 minutes in. The QQQs were only about 4% off all-time highs, but the names that never participated were "getting beaten up and destroyed." Tesla's layoffs couldn't stop its "sell it mode." The hosts debated whether the market is correcting through time or price and whether this is the end or the middle of the pullback. They also covered levels on the QQQs, SPY and IWM, gold, earnings candles as pivots, and the double tops that worry GP.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said that "as a longer-term bull," he gets excited during corrective periods because fresh opportunity develops, as in June through November last year. He thinks what hasn't participated "will get absolutely clobbered." The dispersion "is pretty wild compared to what the indices are doing," much like July 2023, when Roku went from about 97–98 to about 45. He layers indicators with his own technical analysis. He wants the QQQs to regain 433 and hold, putting them back in the 433–450 range. Below it, he expects a range of 433 down to 415, set by the big January 19 gap-up volume bar, in a Darvas-box sense. He wouldn't "throw money at" stocks just because of an oversold McClellan reading, which he called more of a lagging indicator, and he doesn't think the risk/reward favors shorts either.
He isn't panicky and doesn't enjoy news-driven markets. He thinks "we see more downside or more choppy behavior before we move higher," though the weekly and monthly "look phenomenal." He disagrees with GP about being near the end: "I think we're in the more in the middle." It would take "a close back above 434 and hold," and then he'd be "eyeing all mega caps" and anything showing relative strength, using MarketSmith's Growth 250 list. Coupang was "definitely the standout name of the day," and Goldman held up. Beyond day trades, he isn't interested in the short side. He thinks "this is only an intermediate correction" in a much bigger freight train moving higher.
On IWM, today's move would confirm a breakout failure. He doesn't think it goes back to 170 and expects a higher low around the 200-day at about 190, with the 50-week at 188. Even a modest SPY pullback toward 480, with the 200-day at 465, could hit individual names harder than the indices. He said one of the more bullish things would be post-earnings gap downs getting "bought up in a relatively short period of time." That could make it "more of a sharp, like V-type bottom" than the six-month chop of last June to November. He writes out if-then scenarios, "even if they sound stupid," because "the more if-thens that I have written out the less surprised I am."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben joked, "I'm feeling great about my quarterly stock pick today," which is Tesla. He's "content sitting" and is "not in a rush," with no strong convictions while the moving averages curl over. He thinks 434 on the QQQs "is a good place to nibble maybe on shorter-term trades." AMD and Amazon are his two biggest positions. He still likes AMD and is content "as long as it holds this like 157, 158 area." He added some AMD last week around 167, "right in the middle of that range." Amazon has been strong and "could absolutely catch here somewhere in the 180s," maybe the mid-170s. He's not in a hurry to add: "I'd rather see the market start going the other way before I start adding," since "it's tough to catch the knife." He doesn't feel the market is dangerous, he isn't day trading right now, and he noted that the last time both co-hosts got this bearish, "it turned out pretty good."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "the thing I didn't want to happen is now happening": in a pullback, everything that reached resistance without breaking out, like Square, Shopify, Carvana and Tesla, is getting slammed. Tesla has been in "sell it mode" since July, and he sees "nothing Elon can say or do" to change that, with heavy bearish flow across autos and EVs. It's still above the 160.51 level, but it's "on the verge of breaking down." His "silly prediction of 315" based on a reversal pattern "has failed," and he'd "rather wait for it to show some backbone and then buy it even if it's 20% higher." He's in the "sideways as a direction" camp. The market has gone 11 weeks without buyers pushing higher, so it's been "lower in time and now price is potentially getting there." Square's weekly looks nearly symmetrical to its pre-COVID base and flip.
He thinks gold "has a little bit more upside but I think it needs some rest." Friday's high-volume selling was "the warning shot," and GLD likely pulls back to around 200–203 to gather buyers. It's confusing to him that gold and the dollar are both strong while TLT falls. The Nasdaq Composite held its February 22 gap even as the QQQs broke theirs. The VIX tried about seven times to clear Friday's high and closed below it, with extreme ticks of −1,698 and −1,508. "I personally still think we're at the end of this." In 2017 the stock market was the only place for money, but now "I can earn five and a quarter percent in my savings account." In sideways markets, "your moving averages are useless," so he uses earnings candles and fundamental pivots instead. For Amazon, that means the prior earnings gap around 167 and the high around 172. Meta's floor is the dividend-announcement day. Nvidia's May 2023 guidance gap "never broke" during six months of consolidation.
He thinks Apple's earnings matter most, after several straight quarters of revenue and EPS deceleration, and Netflix is "my indicator of where the markets go." On SPY, "everyone wants 480," but he thinks it doesn't hold. He expects 458 instead: the April 2022 and July 2023 highs, with the rising 50-week near 460. The double tops that scare him are MDY's weekly, Amazon and XLF, not IWM, which "hasn't even gotten to the top." Volume isn't heavy yet. Back in January 2022, though, Roku had already lost nearly 60% on little volume before selling accelerated, and "if things start breaking more that volume will accelerate to the downside."
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