Chapters
00:00 Intro: A Midday Tuesday Show
00:30 Nick: Dead Cat Bounce or Not?
05:43 Tesla Earnings Expectations
09:25 GP: A Reset & the Dispersion Trade
10:57 GP: Netflix's Morning Star
14:35 Ben: Apple's 164 Area
16:08 Goldman Sachs & Financials
18:44 Cybersecurity: CrowdStrike & Palo Alto
20:20 Nick: Coinbase, Robinhood & the Miners
21:23 GP: The Spring Setup
22:23 PayPal vs. Square
26:34 Nick: Delta & the JETS ETF
28:35 A Broader Rally?
31:38 GP: Watching Nike & Starbucks
35:16 Ben: AI in Logistics & Manufacturing
43:34 GP: Spotting the AI Winners
47:10 Palantir & the Big Volume Bar
54:08 GP: Snap's 10.85 Floor
56:15 Nick: Coupang & Druckenmiller
57:47 Quarterly Picks Check-In
1:01:24 GP: WhaleWisdom & Institutional Money
1:05:36 Hot Stock Summer?
1:06:38 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #113 went out live midday on Tuesday, April 23, with Ben, Nick and GP, after two up days following a rough week. The question was whether the bounce is a dead cat or a reset, with Tesla reporting after the close and most of the mega caps due later in the week. The hosts covered Netflix's earnings reaction, Apple, Goldman Sachs and financials, cybersecurity, PayPal versus Square, airlines, where AI reaches consumers, Palantir, Snap, Coupang, WhaleWisdom and the Q2 picks.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said the bounce "has been long expected," given "pretty like maxed out oversold readings," and he was happy to see the pullback come before the mega caps reported. Those reports will likely decide whether this is a dead cat bounce. The QQQs bounced right off the previous level around 412–413. He'd like to see a base, "but I'm not going to be convinced until we spend some time going sideways here." For bulls hoping for a V, the ideal path is a bounce into about 435–440, a pause of a few days, and a pivot to trade against. Outside tech, he sees "a lot of good-looking setups" in financials and XLE. He thinks Goldman is on its run to 500. He likes "all things finance," including CleanSpark and Riot over Marathon, and Coinbase and Robinhood in particular, which are holding their 50-day.
He likes the PayPal setup on the daily, with its symmetry and higher lows, maybe more than Square right now. "If it can bust through there," meaning 68–69, "I'm all over PayPal." On airlines, he thinks Delta "looks phenomenal" and is breaking out of its daily range, though he'd probably go after the JETS ETF instead of an individual name. He thinks we'll see "a broader based rally" beyond the mega caps and admitted he "got lazy" with scanning because the names he was in were all working. On Palantir, he noted the massive volume bar where it topped out at 25, so "it could just as easily go to 16, the low of that bar, as the other way." He owns it as a short-term trading position, and "22.50 is where I'm looking for it to bust through on a near-term and then 25." Coupang is Stan Druckenmiller's biggest holding. His Moderna pick is "just coiling right here off the 200-day" with the moving averages converging, and it needs to get above about 115–117.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben's quarterly pick, Tesla, entered at 176, was down about 17% to 18%, and he joked "I think we're going to the moon." He always checks Apple, which is holding its low. You'd want to see it hold the 164 area: "there are worse setups out there," with risk "probably mid-150s." On cybersecurity, he thinks CrowdStrike looks good, SentinelOne has been treading water in the low 20s, and Palo Alto "looks really good." He's still watching Palo Alto's 318 level because a rejection there would make a head-and-shoulders, and breaking through it "is a failed head and shoulders, which is even more powerful."
He thinks AI and augmented reality will help most "in the logistics space and in the manufacturing space," plus healthcare, before trickling down to consumers. He cited Fanatics' template-based jerseys and Wendy's surge-pricing drive-thru assistant. He thinks TikTok's Instagram-style app "Notes" is "a terrible name."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said he "would be greatly surprised if it dropped 30%" on Tesla earnings after it fell straight down from 260. He thinks all of it is "set up for further upside, whether it's 3 months from now, six months from now." To him it's not a dead cat but "a reset." The dispersion trade "ruled supreme" as rate-sensitive names like Carvana, Square, Roblox, Wayfair, Affirm and Roku sold into OpEx. "The quicker the reset the more chances of it being a buyable dip," and the slow incremental grind down is the scary kind. Netflix broke down to fill its earnings gap and is now making a morning star, already a more than 61% retracement of the earnings candle. There was buying five minutes into earnings, and its "refusal to move higher is indication that it's going to go lower so it can gather more buyers to push higher." It's the only one of the big mega caps that hasn't taken out all-time highs, and he thinks it now has the energy to.
On Goldman, he joked it's "going to 800," and he thinks the moves in financials, including the small regionals, are "setting up to be pretty monstrous." Measured moves off Goldman's long monthly bases point to around 600. PayPal's weekly hasn't shown "one single accumulation candle." It has to clear 77, where it sold off twice, for sustained upside, though there's still about 20% in the 64–77 range. Square has arguably already tried to go stage two, and he thinks "you could easily pull a double out of Square." It also holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet, which could be a catalyst. Many names look like a spring setup, coming back 20% to the base before gathering buyers to break through. He's watching Nike and Starbucks, not to trade, but to see whether "one of the most addictive drugs of all time, coffee" and a top consumer brand can reverse.
He thinks "for our next leg higher we'll need the consumer AI piece," led by Apple, Google and Tesla. Legacy manufacturing will slow the shift, as it did for Ford and GM. Few would have picked a bookstore, Amazon, as an internet winner, and Microsoft turned once it followed AWS into cloud. On Palantir, a bounce at 20, the range box, is where you'd want it to hold. His only concern is "that huge weekly volume bar," since those are typically capitulation bars. Snap has kept finding support around 10.85 for nearly two years, so it's a trade, not a long-term investment, and a TikTok ban would help Meta most from an ads perspective. His JD pick (26.70) is a nice flag in an inverse head-and-shoulders, with a pivot and the 50-week just above. On Tesla earnings, he thinks it "probably retests yesterday's low and that's probably the end of the move." He uses WhaleWisdom every quarter for 13Fs. In 2022, and with Tesla at 180 in 2019, institutions were buying while price went sideways.
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