Chapters
00:00 Intro: Stepping Out of Anonymity
01:42 A Quiet Week & a Hot Summer?
03:17 Nick: QQQs, the 50% Retrace & the McClellan
08:27 Small Caps Need Fundamentals
10:37 GP: Carvana vs. Roku & Microsoft's Old Range
13:14 Nick: Follow Relative Strength
14:48 GP: Tesla, the Destroyer of Opinions
17:20 Palantir's Earnings Gap Down
23:06 GP: IPO Syndrome
28:52 GP: Google Never Broke Its IPO Low
34:33 Nick: Mega Caps Ready to Move
35:05 GP: Netflix's Gap at 610.56
36:38 GP: Disney & the 200-Week Tag
39:13 GP: Food Stocks, Humana & Energy Distribution
42:54 Ben & Nick: XLE's Monthly
45:28 MOO & Gold Miners
49:36 Crypto & the Robinhood Notice
53:48 Quarterly Picks Check-In
55:23 GP: The Dollar's Lower High
57:38 Forex & Market Transparency
1:02:49 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #114 went out live on Tuesday evening, May 7, with Ben, Nick and GP showing their faces on camera for the first time. With a quiet economic week and the QQQs back near all-time highs, Nick tracked the McClellan and GP argued that small caps need real fundamentals, not just bases. Palantir's earnings gap down drew orders around 20 to 21. They also covered IPO syndrome, Netflix's earnings gap, energy distribution, XLE, crypto and the dollar. On the Q2 picks: Ben's Tesla (176.88) was about a dollar up, Nick's Moderna (111.60) about $10 up, and GP's JD (26.70) about $6 up.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Coming off a down wave, Nick likes to see the QQQs clear the 50% retracement and hold. That level coincided with the 430–434 zone, and they're back in the 435–445 zone now. The McClellan pushed into an overbought reading, which "in uptrends you generally ignore," but he'd still like to see sideways chop work it back to neutral, roughly plus or minus 25 to 50, "before we ultimately head higher. But I'm long and strong." He has noticed "a major uptick in bearish tweets." His advice is to follow relative strength: if your stocks don't participate on a strong up day, rotate into what's working, since there's "no medal or badge or points for loyalty in this game."
He had a Palantir position but "dumped it this morning at 22." He wasn't willing to let a green trade go red, and he counted the move as a breakout failure. He has orders down at 20 even, near the 200-day, and he thinks the risk/reward at 19–20 is pretty favorable versus the 16–17 gap fill bears may be eyeing. He's watching the low of the last earnings gap-up candle, about 19.81. "Netflix is looking phenomenal," and he thinks the mega caps "are getting ready to bust another move higher." Amazon barely pulled back as it tested all-time highs, with only a spike under the 50-day, and "Google's strength is there." He called himself "one of the world's worst commodity traders." He'd have thought XLE "would have ripped" when it busted above 93.50, but "it popped and it's just fizzling out." A monthly 50/200 cross usually brings a pullback into it, so he doesn't think this is a long-term top, and the pullback "is probably going to be a great buying opportunity."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben likes Palantir "down here" at the top of the range box he drew long ago, "so I like the low 20s myself and I have some orders set." His first order is just under 21, with dry powder to add lower, and the 50-week at 18.47 is close to his buy. "This is not a trade, this is just a buy." He doesn't think it goes to the bottom of the range, though a hard market roll could extend the weakness. On XLE's monthly, last month looked like a breakout failure, so "my first thought would be price is going to revert back to the low to mid 70s, but if it holds above that 88, 89 maybe not so much." He expects Ethereum to be listed on an ETF soon.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP thinks small caps only participate if the weak, unprofitable companies in the index start performing better or money gets cheaper, because "you have money that pays you while sitting in cash" now. Roku is "still not profitable," while Carvana's focus on cost-cutting and profitability carried it right into the 200-week. It may come back to test the 50-week without breaking the thesis. Microsoft's fundamentals improved from 2000 to about 2013 while it bounced between 20 and 40. He sold at about 42 before it went "on to 10x from there," so charts can set up, but without execution they won't break out. Tesla "has been the destroyer of anyone who has opinions," with constant 50–60% moves. He doesn't buy the Buffett rumor because Buffett "will just stay in cash."
On Palantir, "today's volume was less than yesterday's volume," so it's a check back to a supply zone. It should be fine as long as the 20–21 area holds, and it's sitting right at the 20-week at 21.34, though it's an outside, bearish engulfing week. GlobalFoundries is "miserable IPO syndrome," and Roblox will range "until they show profitability." His alerts there are still at 48. Arm reminds him "hardcore" of how Roblox topped and rolled. Lasting IPOs like Google, Facebook and Apple base for maybe 12 to 18 months, but Google never even tested its IPO lows. Netflix's earnings gap down was "just to gather more buyers." It's up only about 10% in five days and still hasn't filled the gap at 610.56. He sees two ways out: "it gaps over 639 tomorrow and just goes or it fails miserably before it even hits the gap." Disney's sell-off was "the dumbest thing on the planet," just a 200-week tag and a move back toward the 50, like XBI and Shopify.
He thinks food names like Texas Roadhouse, Wingstop and Chipotle are "on their final legs." Humana finally gave way after a monster distribution top, and XOM looks similar. XLE cleared 94.71, showed weakness and broke back below it, and it has had declining volume since January 2022 on higher prices. On the dollar, DXY is holding above his zone and all its moving averages, but it has put in a lower high like the first week of November 2023, "so until that changes the bias is to the downside." He doesn't trade forex or commodities and said "these things are just miserable." He wants transparency in options flow: "until we get transparency on that market... it will always be crush the retail game."
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