Chapters
00:00 Intro: The Three-Faced Amigos
00:37 Roaring Kitty & the Meme Squeeze
03:17 Nick: A Distraction & a Stock Picker's Market
07:26 GP: The Fed Holding Pattern
11:00 Nick: Tesla's Real Trade Is Through the 200
12:31 Nick: Moderna, Twist & Coupang
14:01 Toast vs. Wayfair Bases
17:41 GP: Base Breakouts Fail, Then Spring
18:44 GP: XLF's Second Attempt
21:20 Meme Mania & AMC's APE Shares
24:56 GP: SPY 750–770
27:31 GP: Roblox & IPO Hell
29:40 GP: Lattice's Decade-Long Base
30:10 GP: Boeing Has No Accumulation
33:15 Ben: Alibaba Through 90
34:48 Ben: The 24-Hour Time Frame
35:52 GP: Snowflake Is Still in Distribution
43:01 GP: Redfin's Downtrend Break
47:12 Nick: Samsara & Pfizer
51:00 GP: Getting Paid to Wait in Pfizer
53:03 Crypto Miners & Bitcoin
58:21 Nick: Apple, Microsoft & Netflix Look Great
59:24 GP: Google's Secondary Move
1:01:26 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #115 went out live on Monday evening, May 13, with Ben, Nick and GP, as Roaring Kitty and the meme stocks came back. GP asked whether the squeeze marks a final leg or finally sparks base breakouts in small caps like Carvana, Roku and Wayfair. The hosts also covered the Fed holding pattern ahead of CPI, Moderna, Toast versus Wayfair, XLF, GP's SPY 750–770 target, Boeing, Alibaba, Snowflake, Redfin, Pfizer, crypto miners and the mega caps.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick thinks the meme run is "nothing more than a distraction." On his watch list of 800 to 900 stocks, half were green and half red, but most were well off their lows, and "there's plenty of stuff that looks great." It's "not going to pay to be aggressive," but if you're in positions he doesn't see a reason to dump them, and he wouldn't let green trades turn red. He expected chop into CPI. He thinks mega caps keep doing well, citing how hard Google ripped, but "it's a stock picker's market... not like a dart-throwing environment." He has been watching KLA, Lam Research, Broadcom and Arm, using Arm as an indicator the way Roblox played out in 2021. He owns Tesla but didn't add, thought it would hold at the gap fill with the 20-day curling, and thinks "the real trade is going to be through... 200."
Moderna, his quarterly pick, is "probably one of my favorite setups out there right now." He's looking to add through strength or through 128–129, to peel some off as it pushes toward 160, and he thinks "it has a 200 magnet on it." He chased Twist through 44, and he thinks Coupang is still hanging in there and looking great. His advice is to "almost ignore the indices" and keep scanning for relative strength: stocks busting out of stage one bases, or pulling into the 50-day or 150–200-day and setting up for continuation, with the main entry through the next pivot high. He thinks Toast is getting ready to bust out of a stage one base. When a stock is building a base, "you might as well set your alerts for either the breakout or the lows of the base."
His list includes Samsara (IOT), which "continues to base on base" and is again setting up at highs. Pfizer has "got to bust through this 28, 29," then deal with the 200-day. If IBB and XBI stay strong, he thinks it probably squeezes through. It gapped above the 20 and 50, a setup the StockTwits trader John Lee liked as a gap-and-go or runaway trade. To close, "I think Microsoft looks great... Meta... they're all looking great," and Apple "looks like it's about to bust a move." Netflix "looks great even though it's not gone anywhere in four years."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said the last time memes drew this kind of attention was January 2021. Back then mega caps weren't doing great while meme stocks went crazy, because firms had to sell to cover. He noticed AMC had converted its APE preferred units back into common shares less than two years after creating them, which "just seems shady." He's been in China, and his Alibaba trade is finally paying. He got in low, so he hasn't waited long. He wants it to get through 90, likely a weekly level, and to see how it handles earnings before the open, since earnings "have not been kind to it over the last couple years." He has been playing with a 24-hour time frame, mostly on his crypto charts since he rarely uses the daily. He loves the 4-hour, but it's "nowhere as strong as the weekly or the monthly."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP thinks "a lot of things start and end in the same manner": shorts squeezing out marks either a final leg up or a final bottom. The market has been sideways since the hotter inflation prints in January and February, and the Fed's in a holding period, so "it could be another six months like this." Carvana is one of the few to break out of its base, but staying at the top of its box after crushing earnings says "it's not enough." Netflix went "straight line up from 540 straight to 624" and filled the earnings gap. Tesla is holding the 50% retracement and the gap fill but remains in a downtrend for 2024. Toast needs a bigger base. He'd rather own bases with two years of accumulation, like Wayfair, than squeezes like Rivian's run from about 13 or 14 to 30, and Square has no accumulation.
Even strong breakouts usually come back to retest. When Wayfair takes out 78–79, short interest could send it to 110–120 quickly, then back to or under 78 before it rips: "that spring stage move." On XLF's monthly, the first attempt to break out of its two-year base above the GFC highs was rejected, and "the second one is always more powerful." His bias is that base breakouts are coming, and he "never thought Roaring Kitty would be the reason IWM breaks out." He thinks SPY heads toward a 750–770 extension over the next couple of years, where "you want to definitely take a decent amount off."
Roblox is a painful IPO chart, so wait for IPOs to base, though some, like El Pollo Loco, base for a decade. Lattice went "from 10 bucks to a 100" in two years after its 2019 base breakout. On Boeing, "the three people on this podcast could be better management," and there's "nothing on the Boeing chart that says to me that you should be long for more than five minutes." It shows no accumulation, only distribution, so he'd only consider LEAPS on a material shift. Snowflake's weekly and monthly candles "all look like sell candles," so he'd look at the 110–122 area but wouldn't buy at 110 until it shows accumulation. He thinks it breaks down and spikes the lows before it rallies.
On Redfin, he caught the initial squeeze and sold around 10, then watched volume accumulate. Now it's breaking a monster downtrend: "Roaring Kitty didn't just come today, people have already been buying this thing." It's only about a $700 million company, and he's "hoping I get 32 on it at some point." Pfizer paid about 6.5% down in the 25–26 area, so "you're getting paid to wait," and he thinks it's okay as long as it closes above 25.28, the 1997 breakout. Google tends to pop on earnings, give it back, then make "the secondary move." It saw a big volume spike Friday and is "most likely also another one that's going to go higher." He noted that Google, Amazon and Netflix are the mega caps still at or below all-time highs from 2020–2021.
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