Chapters
00:00 Intro: Happy Birthday, Ben
01:02 GP: AI Broadens From Picks and Shovels
04:08 GP: Tesla's Relative Strength & 207–208
05:40 Nvidia's Split & Broadcom
07:41 GP: The Nvidia Doubters
08:44 GP: Ride the Rising 20-Week
09:47 GP: Could You Hold First Solar to 1,100?
11:19 Nick: Peel Off & Buy Back
12:52 Ben: Buying in Fifths
14:57 GP: Build a Core & Trade Around It
16:30 GP: The First Technical Break Is Usually Wrong
20:06 Nick: Volatility Before the Rip
21:38 Nick: Trimming & Adding Moderna
24:46 GP: Roblox, Wayfair & Netflix
26:18 Nick: Mega Caps Are Set Up to Go
27:23 Nvidia vs. Apple Market Cap
29:26 What Happens After Splits
34:41 Exxon's No-Man's Land
37:49 Ben: Alibaba Between 75 & 82
38:19 China Names: Trades Only
40:24 Snowflake vs. Tesla Accumulation
46:36 What Narrative Takes Us Higher?
49:41 Ben: An Everything Rally
53:48 GP: 2022's 60–80% Discounts
59:32 Ben: Crypto Good, Alt Season Now
1:04:20 Ben: Bitcoin First, Then Ethereum, Then Alts
1:05:25 Ben: Chainlink, Uniswap & NEAR
1:07:29 Ben: Bitcoin Over 73K Heads to 100K
1:10:04 Quarterly Picks Check-In
Market Hours #116 went out live on Tuesday, May 28, Ben's birthday, with Ben, Nick and GP after a week off. Nvidia had just knocked earnings out of the park again with a 10-for-1 split coming. GP thinks AI is broadening from the "picks and shovels" toward consumers. The hosts asked whether you could hold First Solar through a big move and why the first technical break of an uptrend is usually wrong. They also covered Moderna, mega caps, splits, Exxon, China, Snowflake versus Tesla, the narrative for the next leg higher, and Ben's case that it's "crypto good, alt season now."
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick thinks Nvidia's split will "start to see money push into a lot of the other names as well." He wouldn't hold First Solar through a 50% drawdown. Instead he'd peel some off "as it tests the all-time highs" and buy it back through the highs, since "it already looks like it's building out a handle." He'd keep buying some and selling some as it stair-steps, hoping its bases and pivots are tradable. He has noticed that volatility often hits right before a stock rips out of a nice base. On his Moderna pick, he sold some as it pushed through 150 and into 160, then added some back this morning versus the 10-day. The .382 retracement was at 149.85. He hadn't expected it to rip this hard given "the amount of dead bodies in this chart," and he was surprised Pfizer didn't follow through 30.
"I think Netflix looks so good right here," and he thinks Microsoft and Meta are "set up to go," with Amazon looking good too: "I think it's just... when do they go." He could see Nvidia range-bound between about 100 and 200, split-adjusted, for months. On Exxon, he liked it wedging into the 50-day but lost interest when it broke, though today's candle pushing above the May 3 wick low is encouraging, and he has alerts at 120. He thinks PDD looks better than Alibaba and likes JD versus its 50-day. Snowflake was starting to shape up toward the 200-day, but when the 200-day is flat or turning down, "it's going to take some time to get that thing to curl up." He thinks the narrative for the next leg higher "will be rates."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben expects Broadcom, which "lock-step" with Nvidia has been crushing it quarter after quarter, to talk about a split around its earnings in two weeks. As a $650 billion company, "I can't imagine it not in this cycle not getting at least close to that $1 trillion market cap." When Nvidia reaches par with Apple's market cap, that's "probably a good area to watch" for a short. He thinks a $100 split price is attractive for people to get involved. On First Solar, "my name is holding bag so I will hold it." He builds positions in fifths, so a first leg that drops just lets him buy more. Since he can't monitor everything, he'd rather have a small position that runs than miss it. He wouldn't be long Exxon until it shows it's breaking out. He's still involved in Alibaba and isn't concerned "until it breaks below 75," but "would sure like it a lot better if it reclaimed 82." WhaleWisdom's heat map showed Tesla high on the Q1 accumulation list.
He's "a firm believer in an everything rally": a handful of mega caps keep the market afloat, then everything catches up. He thinks we're "still in the middle of a 12 to 15 year bull market run," with 2018 as a smaller version of 2022, and "six to eight years of just grinding higher." He also pointed to the transfer of Boomer wealth to Millennials and Gen X. On crypto, "crypto good, alt season now." Bitcoin dominance is peaking around 54–56%, and he'd be "very surprised to see 60% Bitcoin dominance again." His approach: new money goes into Bitcoin first, then Ethereum once you have a base, then altcoins as trading projects. Chainlink is the only alt besides Ethereum he'd hold forever, and it "gave you all the chances in the world under $13" and is already at 18.5. He also likes Uniswap, Shiba Inu's weekly flag, Polkadot ("like my ATM"), ICP, AVAX and especially NEAR, and he thinks the coming Ethereum ETF could bring "some major pumps." Bitcoin needs to break 73K, and "once it breaks 73 we're going to 100." An uptrend line from the prior highs suggests a pause near 88–90K, like "Michael Phelps coming up for one breath." His Q2 Tesla pick, bought at 176, was back near break-even.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said AI's first pop was "the picks and shovels," and now you're seeing it spread to where it can be adopted faster, by consumers. First Solar, which "we talked about... being an awesome buy in the 130s, 140s," has nearly doubled. Nvidia isn't about market cap but "supply and demand." It executed flawlessly again after last May's pop from 340–350 to about 500 and six sideways months. Tesla is up about 26% in five weeks versus about 10% for the market. To hit "all trifectas of time frames" with a monthly reclaim, it needs to clear about 207–208 this week. Even if you bought Nvidia near 187 in late 2022, you'd be up about 500% in 18 months. You could have ridden it by staying long above the rising 20-week moving average and re-entering when it reclaimed. He asked whether you could hold First Solar from 280 all the way to 1,100 or so, given its 27-year base and breakout over 317.
He likes to build a core at potential "monster pivot bottoms" and trade around it. "The first technical break of a big uptrend is probably wrong," as with Nvidia's two weeks under the 20-week, unless something fundamental changes. The same goes for the first break of a downtrend. Volatility "always increases at tops and bottoms." He's a Roblox "bag holder," but he knew it was years out. Wayfair keeps going 70, 60, 70, 50 until it shows profitability, and Netflix has "just no buyers above this area." He thinks Meta, "cheaper" at about a 22 P/E, reaches $2 trillion before Amazon. Amazon and Google split for liquidity. He expects Nvidia's split to bring "a while of some churn" for a quarter or two, and its year-over-year comps get hard, so "you're probably getting towards the tail end of this move." He wouldn't bet against it until it shows that.
Exxon broke the prior month's low, so "Exxon is guilty until proven right" on the monthly. It could go back to the prior month's low near 104–105. It's in no man's land, so he'd wait for 110 (the 20-week) to hold, the 104 monthly pivot to hold, or a break above all-time highs. He's only in China names as trades because the news hits overnight, and last week's selling volume was too much. Snowflake shows no accumulation: "almost every big volume bar in Snow is red on the weekly" since its 2022 bottom at 110, so he wouldn't call it a base and would want another test near 120. Tesla, by contrast, shows "a lot of buying since January 2023." In 2022, the best companies lost 60–80% in six months, like Amazon from 188 to 80, even without a recession, and a second leg down never came because nothing else materialized.
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