Chapters
00:00 Intro: Couldn't Be More Bullish
02:05 Ben: Does Anything Matter Until 440?
03:05 GP: Friday's Flow & the 443 Put Wall
06:41 GP: ETFs on Top of ETFs
09:15 Is Bitcoin Digital Gold?
11:48 GP: Netflix, the Worst Bull Chart
13:19 Short Picks for Fun
13:49 Nick: Games to Suppress Price
16:23 GameStop & Roaring Kitty
18:29 Nick: Trading the First 60-Minute Range
20:33 GP: Building a Coinbase Position With CONL
22:35 Ben: MicroStrategy's Premium
26:16 Tesla Under the 200-Day
27:17 Nick: Tesla's Stop at 169
28:51 GP: Tesla's 170 Put Buyer
29:52 Moderna Pulls Back
30:24 Ben: Has Software Bottomed?
33:29 First Solar & Retail Apparel
36:12 The Dollar
38:51 Nick: Chopping Around Buying Time
40:55 Roaring Kitty & the Double Standard
45:31 McDonald's: Long or Short?
47:35 Nick: The Closes Matter More
52:19 Ben: Rivian & the EV Space
55:28 GP: Why GM & Ford Pulled Back
1:00:13 GP: Range Is the Next Level
1:01:13 Nick: Tesla's Apple Blueprint
Market Hours #117 went out live on Monday, June 3, a couple of minutes late, with Ben, Nick and GP. GP "couldn't be more bullish" and couldn't be more frustrated, because the market has done "the sideways dance" since the Fed went data dependent in January. The hosts covered Friday's end-of-month flush and bounce, new ETFs built on top of other ETFs, Netflix, GameStop and Roaring Kitty, GP's Coinbase position, Tesla's put buyers, software, the dollar, McDonald's and the EV space. They also announced the show is moving to 3 p.m. Eastern on Mondays.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said, "I think there's more games that are played to suppress price than to pump price." A big fund that wants into a name wants the price suppressed as long as possible, and he thinks money is moving all around without settling. First Solar and Nvidia are "two of the strongest names in the market." He's not playing the meme stocks because "they're a distraction from what's really taking place," and he'd rather be sized right with smaller positions and sit through it. He builds gap trades around the first 60-minute range. His GameStop short would have needed a close under 28, so it never triggered, and with strength in the indices a long through about 30–32 might not be a bad entry either.
He thinks Tesla is "about ready to rip... up to 300." He expects people to look back at "how many times did this thing just chill right above the 50-day," and a while back he said "just set your stop at 169 and forget about it." He's "incredibly bullish" and thinks the market is "just chopping around buying time." His lesson for traders getting chopped up is to "be sized right," because "the morning is typically amateur hour... the closes matter more." On McDonald's, he sees a low-risk entry on the monthly with his stop under last week's low, around 249. If it holds and claws back to 300, "your next measured move or your next target would be 350." On EVs, he thinks Tesla is following the Apple blueprint of yearly updates, and when electric range "far exceeds the range of gas, I think we'll see like a massive change."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben asked whether anything matters until 440 breaks on the QQQs. That's the 50-day plus an undercut of the nine weekly, "the middle of the range we just broke out of," and Friday looked like a retest of it. He expected a bounce off Friday's lows "because it's the end of the month" and funds put money to work for June 1, and "that lower wick to me just looked like an opportunity." He can't understand why MicroStrategy trades at such a premium to Coinbase, noting it has solidly outperformed since the beginning of 2023. "I'm gonna say software has bottomed," and he likes the IGV here. On the dollar, the DXY keeps making lower highs and "there's nothing right now that makes me think that this breaks above this prior high." He'd expect it back toward the 101s, which would be bullish for equities. He's still "my same on crypto, nothing has changed." He thinks Rivian can be the clear number two in EVs behind Tesla, but after moving to a rural area he sees how little charging infrastructure exists outside major population centers.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP sees the market waiting on the Fed: "until we get a direction from the Fed, the sideways dance continues." Since his thesis is higher, "lower prices are good entry points." Friday's selloff hit 443, the highest put open interest, and bounced "straight up." He pointed out that names like Microsoft didn't have a single call in the money, because "a lot more of our markets are driven by flow." New ETFs that track other ETFs and premium-selling products remind him of "2006, 2008 credit default swaps." He thinks we're on the verge of what may be "the final breakout for a really long time," followed by a 2000-to-2013-style multi-year sideways stretch, though he doesn't see that playing out in the next few months. He thinks of Bitcoin as "digital gold."
He added to Netflix again this morning, though he calls it the worst bull chart on the planet. It's a low floater, trading 2–3 million shares a day as a $250 billion company, and "the uglier the chart looks, the more likely it's going to have a massive bounce." If forced to pick a short for fun, he'd pick Netflix, which he owns. He stays away from anything with 300–500% implied volatility. On GameStop, the short was against the 42.35 double-top pivot because "when you open under pivots you can reliably take that short." He has been building a position in CONL, a leveraged Coinbase ETF, as a short-term trade because "I think coin is about to bust a move over the next few weeks, few months." In this environment he thinks you're better off with commons and leveraged products than options, which are "designed to... screw you both ways."
Tesla under the 200-day means "any setup under the 200-day moving average is set up for failure no matter how bullish it looks." Longer term he agrees it's going to rip higher, but "short term no one has a clue." It was on the verge of clearing 182 today when a buyer took 13,000–14,000 weekly 170 puts in a single purchase. Salesforce "always reports at the wrong time," but it usually churns and turns back up. McDonald's is "a short in my opinion." It's bouncing off the 200 weekly and 50 monthly, but monthly red volume is increasing in "essentially a double top." It has broken its 2020 channel, with a bearish weekly MACD and Ichimoku, so this is "a short-term bounce for a longer-term short." He thinks the trading day now comes down to the first and last 10 minutes. He thinks GM and Ford "tried the shortcut method, they failed" on EVs. Range expansion toward 400 miles is what takes EV adoption "to the next level."
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