Chapters
00:00 Intro: Back After a Month
02:06 GP: Tesla's Move Is About Flow
02:37 GP: Netflix Between 660 & 690
03:38 Ben: Q2 Challenge Results
07:46 Tesla's Weekly 200 & the Downtrend Line
08:47 GP: Apple & Tesla Outperforming Since April
10:20 Nick: Taking the Other Side of the Apple Haters
10:52 GP: Tim Cook, the Operator
14:31 Nick: Miserable Bear Syndrome
17:06 GP: Mega Caps Rotate & Breadth Expands
19:08 Nick: SMH & Semis
19:39 Ben: Nvidia Won't Rest Long
21:43 GP: Reddit, Roku & Square
24:48 GP: The Market Rewards Executors
25:20 Semis That Aren't Participating
25:54 GP: Netflix, Up 260% From His Entries
28:00 GP: EVs Have Bottomed
28:31 Ben: NIO
29:33 GP: Snowflake's Double Bottom
31:06 Nick: Planet Fitness & ICE
32:08 Ben: Carvana & CarMax Lots
35:12 Nick: Entegris
35:45 GP: SPY 600 by July OPEX?
37:17 Nick: Hot Summer
40:20 GP: Bitcoin, the Ultimate Risk Asset
41:24 Coinbase's 180–280 Base
42:58 GP: Tesla's 2019 Analog
44:30 GP: Roaring Kitty
46:32 Ben: Cloudflare, Datadog & Software
48:06 Costco, the Beast
49:09 Ben: Alibaba & China
52:14 Nick: Vertiv's 95–96 Trigger
56:24 GP: Reddit's IPO Base Breakout
59:36 Tesla Closes Over the Weekly 200
Market Hours #118 went out live on Tuesday, July 2, with Ben, Nick and GP back together after a month off, the longest gap between shows so far. The QQQs were pushing toward a new all-time high and Tesla was ripping. Ben read out the Q2 stock-pick results, and his Tesla pick made him the first two-time quarterly champion. The hosts covered why GP thinks this is a flow market, mega-cap rotation and broadening breadth, semis, EVs, Snowflake, a possible run to SPY 600, Bitcoin and Coinbase, software, China, Vertiv and Reddit's IPO base. They pushed the Q3 picks to the following week.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
In the Q2 challenge, Nick's Moderna pick, bought at 111.60, hit a high of 166.61 (+49.29%) and his 140 and 160 targets, then closed the quarter at 115.95 (+3.9%). He bought Apple at the lows "versus like the low of that massive range," taking the opposite side of Phil Pearlman's hate on Tim Cook. He's seeing a lot of "miserable bear syndrome" lately. "The SMH I think looks incredibly good," with a wide bar off the 20-day, and the rest of the semis all look good. He has been doing his best to sit on his hands and not hurt himself by selling anything, and he wants to participate in social media, financials (from Goldman and JPMorgan to the crypto miners) and health-tech setups. He thinks the mega caps are probably the safest trade right now, "like a freight train."
He's watching Planet Fitness and Entegris, and ICE is "one of my favorite" setups, at all-time highs. He sees Coinbase building "a big old base... between like 180 and 280, that's 100 points," and when it breaks out, "I think it's moving towards like 4 or 500." Vertiv "is an avoid for me at the moment just while it's under the 50-day." He has an alert at 98 and sees a possible double bottom with the trigger through 95–96.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben read out the Q2 results. His Tesla pick, bought at 176.88, fell as low as 138.80 (-21.5%) but closed the quarter at 209.86 (+18.64%), making him "your first two-time quarterly champion." Combined, Nick and GP finished up about half a percent. Tesla tagged the weekly 200 SMA almost exactly, and he thinks the bigger story is that it "gapped over... a two-year downtrend line" and held. "I have this distinct feeling that Tesla is not going to stop here." He expects a push toward the island gap near 252 before it consolidates, and he's sticking with his Tesla rather than selling it for Coinbase. He doesn't think Nvidia rests for long. "AMD is getting ready to get its catch-up," Marvell is performing, and Qorvo is tight. "I see no reason to pull money out of" semis because chip capacity can't keep up with AI demand.
He likes NIO here, with the RSI bouncing off its moving average and price above the nine and 20 weekly. Carvana "pulled right into the 200 week" and has a potential inside-week hammer above it after reclaiming it, so "I believe this looks ready to explode." On his cross-country drive through seven states, he saw dealer lots with very low used inventory while CarMax lots were "packed to the gills." He doesn't like Celsius. He thinks NET (Cloudflare) is at its pivot and likes Datadog, and "the whole software space is about to rip," citing the IGV. He's still long Alibaba with some long-dated calls, but "it's just hard to be in these China names." Bitcoin's move "will be September."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said Tesla's bump has "never had anything to do with Elon." Arbitrage traders were selling deep-in-the-money puts into June OPEX, and as soon as that ended, it moved: "this market is a flow conversation." Netflix sells off every time it gets to 690 and is bought every time it gets to 660. His Q2 pick, JD.com, bought at 26.70, hit 35.27 (+32.1%) against his 40–41 target but closed at 25.79 (-3.4%). Apple and Tesla have outperformed the QQQs since the April bottom, so he'd look for entry points in both over the next six months, and "any weakness is probably going to be bought up." He credits Tim Cook as one of the best operators on the planet and thinks Tesla would benefit from someone like that. Mega caps rotate because "there's a cap on how much money is in mega caps," and breadth is expanding underneath. As of the end of Q2, 302 S&P 500 stocks were green for the year.
He's watching coiled setups: Reddit "on an IPO basis... is about to explode," and Roku made a 20% move after someone bought 40,000 weekly 58 calls. Square went from 30 to 80 and is holding a good retracement near 60–63. The market rewards companies that are executing, not names like Walgreens, Nike and Starbucks. Netflix is "still up 260% from my entries," but "I'm tired of being just a happy cat, I'd prefer to be a roaring kitty." He thinks EVs as a sector have most likely bottomed, with Tesla, Rivian, NIO and BYD showing volume and better news, and NIO has "a ton of accumulation." Snowflake finally gave its double bottom, and "you can buy this in my opinion freely on any pullbacks." He did buy it, and he thinks people will wish they had bought it in the 130s or 140s.
He thinks the SPY could be "close to 600, if not over it" by July OPEX. It has a three-week tight that usually brings 4–5% moves, and earnings are coming. Every mega cap is up except Nvidia, so "it's a pain trade." If it tags 600 or 610, he expects the same playbook as the last two years: a correction into the election, then a breakout around January. He thinks Bitcoin "looks like it's about to bust," and as "the ultimate risk asset" it could be what pushes markets higher. He has added to Coinbase at every opportunity, calling it "the ultimate winner in the crypto space." He pointed to Tesla in 2019, when the QQQs rallied 31–32% while Tesla lost 60%. Both bottomed in June 2019, and Tesla finished the year up about 145% from there. He calls Roaring Kitty "just a trader." He thinks China is dead money while everything else works. Reddit's IPO base breakout pushes toward 90 with lots of 80 calls, but "IPO base breakouts don't tend to last very long," so if you catch it, it's probably a moment to sell into.
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