Chapters
00:00 Intro: Cookie_M on Thursday
02:06 GP: Tesla Clears the Weekly 200 & Heads for 300
02:39 Nick: Selling Half of Tesla
05:41 Nick: Tesla's 260 Measured Move
06:43 GP: Tesla Is Max Pain Both Ways
08:16 GP: Netflix Can't Clear All-Time Highs
10:19 Nick: A Netflix Flush Would Look Great
12:55 GP: Netflix's 20% Earnings Reaction
14:29 Nick: A Gift-Giving Market
16:00 GP: Meta's Failed Breakout?
17:02 Nick: Trail Stops & Higher Lows
19:08 Nick: Meta Back to the Mid-400s?
21:10 GP: Amazon at 200 & Resistance Everywhere
22:41 GP: Who's Buying a Lockout Rally?
23:42 Nick: Where New Money Goes
24:44 GP: The IWM Needs Rate Cuts
26:51 GP's Q3 Pick: Coinbase
27:57 Ben's Q3 Pick: Bitcoin at 56K
30:38 Nick's Q3 Pick: ICE
32:14 AMD vs. Nvidia
33:18 Marvell
34:49 Ben: Tesla Into the 230s?
35:52 GP: Tesla's Sixth Lower High & 265.20
37:23 GP: Hut 8's 18.42 Pivot
39:28 Nick: CRISPR Over 88
40:28 GP: Roblox's 47.60 Level
41:34 Nick: Electronic Arts & the Trade Desk
44:48 Mobileye: Alerts at 32 & 34, Stop Under 25
46:20 Ben: Cloudflare & Datadog
47:54 Nick: ICE Near All-Time Highs & Honeywell
50:29 GP: The XBI & Biotech
54:38 GP: Where the MACD Crosses Matters
56:40 Gold
59:14 What Moves the Basing Names?
1:00:17 Ben: Rotation Out of the Megas
1:02:54 Cycles Are Shortening
Market Hours #119 went out live on Monday, July 8, with Ben, Nick and GP, ahead of the Thursday session with Cookie_M at 11 a.m. Eastern (10 Central). Tesla had popped through its weekly 200, and Nick had sold half his position. GP laid out why Netflix and Meta keep stalling at resistance and asked who's left to buy what he calls a lockout rally. The hosts made their Q3 picks: GP took Coinbase, Ben took Bitcoin at a 56K reference price, and Nick took ICE, with results to be checked at the September 30 quarter end. They also covered AMD versus Nvidia, Hut 8, Roblox, Mobileye, Honeywell, biotech, gold and rotation.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick "sold a bunch this morning, about half my position" in Tesla. He had a sloppy inverse head and shoulders on the daily with a measured move to about 260, so selling up here was part of his plan. He figured it would build a range between here and 220, and he's watching the 220-to-231 candle, "one of the biggest volume bars on the chart." Even so, "I think it's gonna rip." On Netflix, "even if they sold it down... they can fill that gap at like 450, 475 and I think it would still look great." It has a nice floor around 535–550, and an undercut to about 500 and a bounce "would set up a monster move." He loves this market for the names he trades. Semis are setting up again, with KLA and Lam pushing toward highs. ServiceNow looks great and Palantir looks amazing. Apple is "a ripper," Meta put in a massive bar, and "for an active trader I think it's been a pretty gift-giving market."
His approach is to trail stops on moving averages and "pay more attention to the higher lows" than to each day's candle. If Meta's breakout fails, he'd expect it to revert to the low end of the range and maybe shake out below it. By the mid-400s the 200-day should have caught up, and in a longer-term base that "would look fantastic." With new money, he'd look at IWM names rather than a fresh QQQ long, which "is just not a logical place for me to get involved." His Q3 pick is ICE (Intercontinental Exchange): "ICE just more fits my style... it looks phenomenal." It's sitting near an all-time weekly closing high of 141.59. On Marvell, 75 is the level it needs to bust out of, and then "I think it tags 100 pretty easily." CRISPR "just looks like a continual like boom and kicking the nuts," and he wouldn't be involved until it gets over 88–90. Electronic Arts is one that, "when this thing finally goes, it's gonna go," and the Trade Desk also looks ready. He'd set Mobileye alerts at 32 (attention) and 34 (actionable). He likes Honeywell's monthly and weekly base. It's sitting on the 20-day, so from cash he'd start there and add against the 50-day, ideally with a cost basis near 200–205. The XBI's big breakout is through 100.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben's price target on Tesla was 300, and he might scale out up there. He could see a pullback into the 230s, about 234 off the 200 weekly and his trend line, but he doesn't expect "a massive falloff or a 20% decline before it hits 300." He has waited two years for Amazon to get this high, so some resistance is to be expected "climbing that massive 2022 wall." His Q3 pick is Bitcoin. He hadn't bought any since below 10,000, but "that dip into 53 was too good for me," and his stink bid at 53,999.99 filled over the weekend. His September thesis "is still alive." The group set 56,000 flat as Bitcoin's reference price, to be judged on September 30. For Mobileye, a long's stop is under 25 on a daily close: buy fewer shares with a wider stop if you're buying in the 30s, or more shares with a tighter stop near 25. He still likes Cloudflare and owns Datadog, and he pointed out that software was weak on the day. He sees gold and Bitcoin trading "hand in hand," calling them "a rock" and "a digital rock." He thinks rotation out of the mega caps will find new homes, such as Nvidia gains moving into AMD. He doesn't see "any massive collapse anytime soon," though a 10% correction can happen at any time.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said Tesla "did not struggle at the weekly 200 SMA, we popped right through." He thinks 254.50, the island gap from when Elon bought Twitter, gets cleared and that Tesla clears 300 on this run, though it probably won't stay there. After that he expects "an awful downtrend" before it takes off, more likely next year, and "a close above 330 this year would be awesome." Tesla is usually only 40–60% institutionally owned, so "it's max pain both directions," a stock to "buy, hold and hold your nose" as an investment. It's still on its sixth lower high since the 414 top. It needs to clear 265.20, though it has made higher lows since January 2023. Netflix was first to bottom in 2022 but got within $7 of all-time highs and can't push through. It's 82% institutionally owned and has heavy call selling. "My instinct is that it's going lower before it goes higher." He expects a roughly 20% reaction right after earnings either way. Its fundamentals, about $6 billion a year in free cash flow, are better than at 700, so a split is one possible catalyst.
He thinks Meta's Friday breakout to all-time highs reversed the whole move, so "every instinct in my body would say this is a failed breakout." It needs a close above the 531.49 pivot to stay long short-term. Amazon finds sellers at 200, Netflix and Google stall, and only Costco "can't stop going higher." With the QQQs in "nosebleed territory" in "as lockout as you get" a rally, he'd wait for a bigger pullback, especially with 5% treasuries. He thinks about 50–60% of IWM companies lose money and need rate cuts, so it may just stay sideways in its 200–206 range. His Q3 pick is Coinbase: "you're looking at an inside quarter... five, six inside months... it's building a handle," with Bitcoin volatility picking up for "the shakeout before the breakout." AMD also looks good.
Hut 8 needs to clear the 18.42 pivot, then 22.75, with the weekly 200 at 18.30. On Roblox, "it's got to break this 47.60 level." He saw flow selling the August 37.50 puts and buying the August 50 calls. The XBI has an inside quarter and closed Q2 near its highs. Over 95.40, where the 200-week sits, it has potential for a bigger breakout, and ARK "as a whole goes higher" if biotech runs. He pointed out that a monthly MACD cross means more once it sits above zero, as it now does for the XBI and on Tesla's weekly. GLD is overbought on the monthly with big-volume selling, so it's a wait-for-the-breakout chart.
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