Chapters
00:00 Intro: Cookie_M Is Back
01:00 Ben: QQQs Resting on the Weekly Nine
01:31 GP: Meta's Six Months Sideways & Netflix Earnings
04:05 Nick: Stopped Out of the Megas
06:13 Nick: Buying Meta vs. 400 & Netflix vs. 550
07:15 Cookie_M: Due for a Pullback
10:50 Cookie_M: SPY's Channel & 571–572
17:59 Cookie_M: Hold the Previous Month's Low
20:03 GP: The QQQs Here Are a Gift
21:08 Cookie_M: Timing Over Stock Picking
23:42 Cookie_M: Small Caps, 2012 & 2017
34:24 GP: Small Caps & Rate Cuts
37:59 Nick: Let the IWM's Averages Catch Up
39:05 Cookie_M: Hold 476 & Reductive Scaling
40:37 Cookie_M: It's Not Unusual
43:44 Cookie_M: Johnny Bear's Trade Plan
47:51 GP: Buy in Zones
49:53 Ben: Buying Speed Bumps, Not Dips
51:27 Cookie_M: A Dip Buy Isn't a Swing Entry
53:27 Cookie_M: Let the Trend Push Through the Pivot
58:30 Cookie_M: The 9 MA, 572 & a Blowoff Top
1:01:07 Ben: Bitcoin, His Quarterly Pick
1:02:07 Cookie_M: Bitcoin's 2x Fractal & 122,000
1:09:25 Cookie_M: July 23 & Stink Bids at the 9 MA
1:15:07 GP: Netflix Into Earnings
1:16:39 Cookie_M: Netflix Above 626
1:19:12 Cookie_M: The 723 Breakout & 900
1:20:45 GP: The 2012 Analog & 1,340
Market Hours #120 went out live on Thursday, July 18, with Ben, Nick and GP joined by guest Cookie_M during a sharp two-day pullback, just before Netflix's earnings report. Cookie_M walked through his long-term SPY channel and why 476 on the QQQs matters. He also explained small-cap analogs from 2012 and 2017, his rule of holding the previous month's low, a 2x fractal in Bitcoin, and his Netflix levels. The hosts added where they'd buy, small caps and rate cuts, and GP's Netflix math.
Cookie_M's setups, levels and trades
Cookie_M thinks "we're due for a pullback," but nothing has happened yet "that's shocking," and with an S&P target near 6,100 the job is "ducking and diving" through corrections. His SPY channel marked 571–572 as the most likely place for a pullback, because price tends to cross from one side of a channel to the other once it clears the center line. That level marks where the 2022 bear market started and was also relevant in 1996, 2000 and 2007. For a month, he'd been saying "don't buy within one or two percent of this level" and to hold more modest positions. The chart only looks worse once the market starts "taking out previous months' lows" and losing the nine-monthly moving average. June's low of 522 is about 10% away, and the pullback has been orderly, with the VIX near 15. He trades mostly the indices and leveraged index ETFs, with TQQQ his biggest position, plus a short list of about 20 leaders that he holds while they outperform the Nasdaq. "Rather than focusing on picking names, I focus on timing better."
On small caps, he showed a 2012 IWM analog: once it crossed 208, "it went bananas," and it's likely to back-test 218. He's also keeping 2017 in mind, when small caps "went largely sideways" while the SPY and QQQs went vertical. If the market struggles to make higher monthly highs in August and September, he'll lean toward the 2017 version. On the QQQs, if 476 holds (it lines up with the nine-weekly moving average and monthly support), "this might still be the best place to buy." If it doesn't, "we could see months of weakness." He calls his method "reductive scaling": go all in at clear support while it holds, and cut back if it fails. He thinks both indices could add about 50% over the next 18 months, and he listed past runs of 55%, 128%, 44%, 83% and 48%: "It's not unusual." His plan is to buy close to the previous month's lows, because "as long as you hold the previous month's low you keep the 9 MA at bay." His stops are under June's low of 447.90 (conservative) or the monthly nine near 437. He scales out at monthly pivots, so he was already at half positions by 560 on SPY. He doesn't use trailing stops. Instead he wants the daily moving averages to push through 476, because a lone candle above a pivot can be a fake move.
The IWM breakout was "a technical move with the squeezing 9 MA against this downtrend line," not rates. The SPY monthly nine hasn't broken 518 yet, and the biggest move comes when the nine-monthly breaks through about 570–572. That would be a first across the top of his green channel and would probably lead to "a blowoff top all the way to 900 or something" within about two years. On Bitcoin, the current consolidation looks like the end of 2023 at twice the size. "Bitcoin is going to get to... 122,000 before the end of the year and probably before the end of October" if the pattern plays out. He's watching July 23, where the downtrend channel meets the green channel's center line. He'd like it to stay above 63,000, but it could dip to the nine-day moving average, so he sets stink bids there each day. Netflix is "holding just above the June lows" of 626 at 639, and "as long as it holds 626 you go for it." He has had targets of 1,100 and 1,500 by February 2026 for two years. A break above the 720–723 channel center line likely carries it to 1,100. The monthly bull flag measures about 24%, or roughly 900 on a move above 723. He has no position but might buy one share, as he did at 543 before last earnings, which he sold for about $50.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick had stops trigger on "pretty much all the megas," including Google and Amazon. He has Tesla and Apple left, and "Tesla looks great," with real relative strength. Into earnings, he'd rather see gap downs that get bought right away: "I really don't care how they report, I just care about the reaction." He's still "pretty freaking bullish" on a mid-to-long-term view and welcomes weakness to reset bases. Even 10% on the QQQs gets back to about 450, and 50% of the last breakout sits around 474–475. He'd "totally buy Meta 400" if it shook under the 200-day, and Netflix versus 550. On the IWM, "looks freaking great, you just got to let the moving averages catch up."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben pointed out the QQQs' weekly was "resting on the nine," which he called "a pretty easy stop out" for anyone long. He wondered how many stink bids sit around 550 on Netflix, calling it "a pretty reasonable spot to throw some low bids if you're bullish." He warned about the urge to buy every small dip: "you didn't really buy dips, you bought speed bumps." As the only two-time winner of the quarterly picks, he chose Bitcoin. He might be a little early, but "if we are making analogs to 2016, 2017, Bitcoin and crypto should be a wild space for the next 18 months."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP thinks "the market's going to 6,100." Meta has gone six months sideways, consolidating "a monster move from... 80, 81 to 530," which is "nothing to be concerned or worried about... not yet." His theme is that the way Netflix goes is the way the market goes. Netflix missed all-time highs by about $3, and he doesn't like weakness into earnings because "weakness usually begets weakness," though a big September 700 call buyer from early June was still there. He thinks the QQQs here are "a gift... it's a retest of the move," and the SPY's weekly volume is too low for distribution, so 2–5% pullbacks are normal. Mega caps are cash cows, while 55–60% of the IWM's components still lose money. He thinks small caps need lower rates and called them "a tactical trade based on fundamentals." The IWM's quarterly is breaking out of a Q2 inside hammer, and you should have been taking profits into the 225–227 zone where it broke down in 2021. He'd buy in zones that let you average down rather than in tranches 3% apart.
As a long-term Netflix holder, he said the stock tends to move only on earnings and is testing the area where it broke down in April. He loves the quarterly and yearly charts and is annoyed only by the daily. On his 2012 analog and napkin math, Netflix's range is 700 to 160, so a breakout from 700 has the capacity to reach about 1,340–1,350, "that 13 to 1400 range," eventually, not in a straight line. He doesn't think long-term AI benefits are priced in yet.
Subscribe for the weekly live show at YouTube.com/@MarketHoursPod.
This is not financial advice. Market Hours is for education and entertainment only. Always do your own research.
Follow Market Hours: YouTube @MarketHoursPod · X @markethourspod · TikTok @markethourspod · StockTwits @markethourspod