Chapters
00:00 Intro: Two Weeks of Selling
03:08 Nick: QQQ Measured Move & 472–473
05:11 Nick: The 420–440 Area
05:46 GP: A Market in a Holding Pattern
08:52 GP: Sideways Since 2020
10:53 Nick: Consecutive Gaps & One More Leg
13:00 Nick: Netflix's Fifth Wave & the 555 Low
14:31 GP: A One-Foot-Out-the-Door Market
17:38 Netflix's Right Shoulder & Meta's Batman Ears
18:42 Nick: Trimming Tesla & Goldman
19:46 GP: Financials, Regionals & Small Caps
23:25 Less Bullish Than Two Weeks Ago?
24:26 GP: Cash Piles Into Rate-Cut Sectors
26:30 Ben: The Dog Days of Summer
28:37 GP: Software Isn't Rotating
29:40 GP: Tesla's Year-End & Home Depot
31:52 GP: Netflix's Low Earnings Volume
32:52 Nick: The Mag 7 Aren't Done
34:24 Ben: Hot Money vs. Investment Money
36:28 Nick: Sherwin-Williams & Breadth
37:29 GP: Coinbase Charts Look Fantastic
38:01 Bitcoin, Miners or Fintechs?
42:11 Nick: DCA Into Bitcoin
47:50 Nick: A Pull Into the 50s?
50:24 Ben: Defense Names
52:27 Boeing
53:27 Ben: Energy as an Investment
56:30 Diamondback's 15x
58:34 Nick: CEG, VST & GEV
59:05 Occidental & Buffett
1:00:44 Earnings Lightning Round: Buy, Sell or Push
1:08:38 GP: Thursday's Earnings List
1:13:20 GP: Opendoor's Short Interest
1:15:58 Mobileye: An Earnings Flyer?
1:20:39 Pfizer & Roblox
1:21:09 Royal Caribbean & Good Management
1:26:52 GP: Not a Wet Blanket
Market Hours #121 went out live on Monday, July 29, with Ben, Nick and GP, after Ben missed the prior week for family matters and the market sold off for two straight weeks. GP came in "spicy," calling this a market "in a holding pattern" while it waits for the Fed. He sees a "one foot out the door" tape across the mega caps. Nick laid out QQQ levels and thinks one more leg down is possible. The hosts covered Netflix's 555 low, financials and small caps, Bitcoin versus the miners and fintechs, defense, energy, and a buy-sell-or-push lightning round on a huge week of earnings.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick expected sideways action after the QQQs took out the 474 pivot, which lined up with the 50-day. They ran a CD leg down, and when measured moves complete, "price at the very least pauses." The 20-day is rolling over, and to get excited on the long side he needs another ABCD up, with a race above 472–473 and last week's low as the stop. If weakness comes in, "the area that I'm really eyeing is like the 420, 440 area." Consecutive unfilled gaps in one direction tell him the trend is picking up, so he could see a rally to about 470, or into the gap, "and then we flush one more leg down." Even so, the weekly "looks great," and "we're correcting through time rather than price." Netflix pulling into the mid-500s for a higher low would look great, with the 200-day at 555 matching the prior two lows in what he counts as the fifth wave of the base. If 555 is taken out, "all bets are off."
He took half his Tesla position off at 260 and sold his entire Goldman position at 500, the biggest positions he had on. He has added back some Tesla, and he's still long but isn't adding. He thinks the mega caps are in "the later stage of high level bases," and he bets they "all like five and 10x from here" by the end of the decade. Sherwin-Williams is at all-time highs, and breadth has been among the best in weeks. He doesn't trade Bitcoin: "I just DCA in and I buy a block of it like every week." He owns Coinbase, sold out of Robinhood into it, and steers clear of the miners. He thinks none of them go until Bitcoin busts above 72,000, and he wouldn't be surprised by "another pull in into the 50s." Defense names "require war or unrest," which doesn't sit well with him. He's watching the growth names CEG, VST and GEV, with CEG on its 200-day. In the lightning round, he'd buy PayPal "based on the double bottom on the daily" and Meta "versus the 200-day."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben pointed out that GP's grumpy moods usually come "within one to two weeks" of things dramatically changing. He thinks the rotation is hot money moving, not invested money. He hasn't been excited to buy anything new for a while and is letting previous buys ride: "this is the dog days of summer... let it chop it up for the next two, four weeks." The QQQs are still holding the weekly 20. Between Bitcoin, a basket of Coinbase and Robinhood, or a basket of miners, he's "going with Bitcoin" as the simpler play without corporate risk. He's long Coinbase and added to Bitcoin two or three weeks ago, and he doesn't trade his Bitcoin, only his altcoins. He still sees regulatory risk, "but ultimately I think Bitcoin is this generation's gold."
He has been "poking around at some defense names" such as Lockheed, RTX and Axon, given how much money is going into rebuilding the military. He doesn't like Boeing's management or its chart, which looks ready to distribute, and he has 114 marked. He's also looking at energy as a six-to-18-month investment: XLE keeps holding with oil back near 75, and the monthly moving averages are crossing up. He's still long Roblox, which is stuck in its channel until it busts through 47. Mobileye and Opendoor are the two names he's watching most into earnings, and he "might even take an earnings flyer" on Mobileye.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP doesn't pay attention to the daily gaps. Meta has been in its range for six to eight months, Amazon keeps failing at 200, and Netflix sits three points from all-time highs after another good report, between 620 and 630 since February. If Netflix loses 555, "you're going to see most likely a right shoulder" and a head-and-shoulders double top. Meta took a whole quarter to recover its earnings gain and lost it in five or six days, falling from 540 to 440–450 on little news and low volume. That gives him 2021 "muscle memory," when Netflix fell from 700 to 510 before earnings and then to 160. He calls it "the one foot out the door market," and it should leave your antennas up because it can break either way. He added to Coinbase, one of the quarterly picks. Coinbase's quarterly, monthly and weekly charts "look fantastic," and Bitcoin is back at 67,000 while Coinbase sits where it was when Bitcoin was 62–63,000.
He thinks financials, usually the last sector to move in a bull market, look "pretty damn good." The XLF is breaking out of a 13-to-15-year consolidation, JPMorgan and Goldman had good earnings reactions, and the regionals "blew right through the weekly 200 like it didn't even exist," a change of character. Small caps are showing strength even as the Russell keeps rejecting 2,286, and he plays them through the sector rather than individual names. He thinks people are putting cash piles to work in rate-cut beneficiaries like Redfin, Toll Brothers and KB Home rather than rotating out of tech. Netflix traded 9.8 million shares in July 2024 versus 23.6 million in July 2023, which he calls apathy. Software isn't rotating: Snowflake sits at 125–130, MongoDB is still down, and Salesforce is struggling. He thinks Tesla is "gonna have a phenomenal end of the year."
Between Bitcoin, miners and fintechs, he'd take Coinbase and Robinhood, because "the miners always suck" and the middlemen charging fees "work out at the end." In a crash, "everything dies," and gold "just went down less," so cash is the best option. On energy, he's "indifferent" rather than bearish. XOM is still under about 94 in a complicated head and shoulders, and Diamondback has had a 15x move from 14 to 214. In the lightning round, he'd sell AMD, which is down about 5% over 12 months "in one of the greatest chip revolutions," because he thinks the SMH is heading to 200–220. On Thursday's list, he'd buy Roblox, MercadoLibre, Snap and DraftKings. Snap has a rejection off the 200 weekly into the rising 50 with a potential inverse head and shoulders. DraftKings has a little flag out of a wave-two consolidation. He said "someone just put them out of their misery" about Intel. Opendoor has huge short interest and accumulation but is a penny name that can go to zero, so size accordingly. Mobileye shows capitulation in volume and then in sentiment, so it "might be a good flyer into earnings." Royal Caribbean "is what good management does out of a pandemic." He's holding IWM August calls and Tesla calls: "I'm not a wet blanket."
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