Chapters
00:00 Intro: The Pod's Back
02:36 The QQQs Bounce Off the 200-Day
04:09 GP: The Carry Trade & the Wall of Worry
07:17 Nick: The 50% Retracement Held
09:51 OPEX Friday & Last Week's Buys
11:25 Nick: Meta to 1,000
12:56 GP: Google & July-to-October Seasonality
15:02 Ben: Google at 160
15:33 GP: This Is Not a Bubble
17:05 Is a VIX of 67 Healthy?
21:14 GP: Roblox & the Dispersion Trade
24:47 Nick: Palantir, GEV, CEG & Monday.com
26:18 Nick: Meta's Five Waves & ISRG
27:22 Nick: Buy What Ripped Off the Lows
27:54 Ben: SentinelOne Over 25
29:27 PACK's Weekly Range
32:05 Nick: A Deregulatory Period
33:08 Airbnb & the 86 Target
37:21 GP: IPOs Take Time to Base
40:22 QQQs & SPY Close Above the 50-Day
43:31 GP: Dell, Nvidia, Tesla & Rivian on Weakness
45:41 Ben: AMD & Google on Weakness
47:14 GP: Costco vs. Nvidia
48:15 Which Mega Cap Doubles?
51:20 GP: Amazon's Lows Were a Gift
52:26 GP: Consumers Fight Back
54:30 Energy, Used Cars & Carvana
Market Hours #122 went out live on Thursday, August 15, with Ben, Nick and GP back together after Ben lost his internet on Monday. The QQQs had bounced right off the 200-day after the yen-carry-trade scare and a VIX spike to 67. GP called it a wall of worry that keeps eroding retail confidence. Nick thinks the lows hold, and the hosts went through Meta, Google, Roblox and the dispersion trade, SentinelOne, Airbnb, Dell and Nvidia into earnings, which mega caps could double, and consumers pushing back on high prices.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said, "I'm not in the camp that we're going to take out those lows," though a test wouldn't surprise him. He uses the 50% spot of any leg as a gauge, and SPY and the QQQs have cleared and held the 50% retracement of this leg down, so "technically speaking... I think we're ripping higher." If price took out Tuesday's low, he'd get defensive, and trailing stops would likely already have cut his size. He thinks corrections are healthy and that, in hindsight, this looks like "a capitulatory low": a massive gap low that ripped higher. "I think Meta is an easy double," he said, maybe not soon, but "I think it's going to a thousand." He called Meta one of the cheaper FAANGs.
He likes Palantir in particular and owns Palantir, Coupang and STX. He bought GEV on its breakout and likes the growth names the growth guys are on, such as GEV, VRT and CEG, which he thinks "is set up to go." Palantir's and Monday.com's quarterly charts "are nuts." ServiceNow is starting to break out, and he'd set alerts on Google through its pivot high. Meta is his favorite mega cap because "the base looks phenomenal," with five waves inside it. If a stock doesn't break out after that fifth touch, he moves it to the "needs more time" camp. Intuitive Surgical looks phenomenal but isn't a current setup. If you're not in positions, "your best bet is looking for names that have ripped the hardest off this capitulatory low." On PACK, he'd set alerts at 7.30, then 8.15, then over 9 to build in. Airbnb "looks gross," and he wouldn't use dry powder on it. He thinks AMD's beatdown was unwarranted, and he'd put any AMD buy in a cash account he never looks at. He thinks Meta or Tesla could double in three to five years, and over five-plus years every one of the FAANG names. He thinks "we're moving into a deregulatory period" no matter who's elected.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben opened with the QQQs, which "bounced right off" the 200-day, with the dip happening mostly pre-market around 430–435. He liked Google at 166 during the last show's buy-sell-hold game, so "if I liked it at 166, I surely like it at 160." He still likes SentinelOne for the relative strength it showed after CrowdStrike's nearly 50% fall. It has made a strong comeback since its poor earnings a couple of months ago, and "there's nothing about that chart that screams at me this is a bad chart." On PACK, he'd use the recent weekly bars as his range and buy close to the bottom, and the range lines up with the 50 MA. On Airbnb, "under bad, over good" on his blue line, but "I am not a buyer right here."
If he had to buy something on morning weakness, it would probably be AMD or Google. If he weren't leaning toward Google, he'd probably buy Apple.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said that "until Netflix takes out all-time highs this market will continue to chop between these levels." After he was called a wet blanket, the market tested the supply zone of the first five months of the year in three days, and buyers showed up. "This is... what's called the wall of worry." The quick down moves erode retail confidence, so he thinks a further big move is ahead, fueled by "fickle chasing money" that later becomes the sellers. Every time the world has thrown the nastiest news at Google, "it's been one of the best buying opportunities." The last two years sold off from July to October, then rallied after October OPEX, and the market rarely gives the same pattern three years in a row. This time it could pull into a high into October and sell into the election.
Nvidia going to 91 or 92 was "one of the stupidest things I've seen in a long time." First Solar is outperforming the AI names outside Nvidia and maybe Broadcom, and Dell fell from 180 to about 87, so "this to me is not a bubble." The VIX spike to 67 is the unhealthy part: it's the third-highest in 24 years, after the GFC and 2020, and "something about that doesn't smell right." Roblox has shown "an incredible amount of strength" for four or five months, with nonstop buying after its earnings gap down. He thinks the summer's dispersion trade, seen in names like Wayfair, Roku and AMD, could be ending as many names hit double bottoms. He's looking for 86 on Airbnb, and its model needs to change. He thinks many recent IPOs were cash grabs that take a long time to base, and he cited Nutanix, which took almost five years to get back to all-time highs.
On any weakness, he likes Dell and Nvidia into their earnings at the end of the month. Dell, "pulverized for no reasons," had a 16% weekly bullish engulfing candle and reclaimed the weekly 50 after a false breakdown. Tesla has reclaimed the weekly 50 and has a golden cross, and Rivian has the same setup. The move after weakness into a golden cross "is usually like 30 to 40% higher." Costco's chart is identical to Nvidia's because "leaders lead." Out of the Mag 7, Tesla and Amazon could double in three to five years. Amazon is "inherently cheap," a conglomerate where "you're getting AWS for free," and its recent lows "was a gift." He thinks consumers are fighting back against price gouging, so he'd be short retail and the companies that kept prices high while their costs fell, like Wingstop.
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