Chapters
00:00 Intro: A Surprise Tuesday Pod
01:01 GP: The Tesla Setup
02:34 GP: Selling Shopify, Weighing Square
06:09 GP: Coinbase's Bear Flag
10:45 GP: Coinbase's 160 Support
13:20 Ben: Coinbase 113 If Bitcoin Breaks
13:50 GP: Bitcoin's Daily Death Cross
15:24 Ben: Bitcoin's September Window
16:26 GP: Netflix & Covered-Call Selling
19:00 Netflix or Square?
22:36 Ben: Moving Averages on Netflix & Square
25:14 Ben: Tesla 295
28:19 GP: Why He Runs a Concentrated Portfolio
29:19 AMD & the Chip Sector
31:53 GP: Amazon & the Leaders
33:27 GP: Tesla & Meta From the Mag 7
37:34 GP: Short Boeing
39:36 Airlines
41:38 GP: Gold to 3,000
43:41 Sunnova vs. First Solar
46:13 Twilio, Teladoc & Mobileye
51:23 Novavax
54:00 Ben: Snowflake's Range Box
56:06 GP: Where's the Volume?
1:00:20 GP: Wayfair's Accumulation
1:00:50 Ben: PayPal's 75–76 Pivot
1:02:55 Ben: Palo Alto, IGV & Software
1:05:29 Ben: Home Depot
1:07:02 GP: The Next Three Months
1:09:06 GP: Rate Cuts Without a Recession
Market Hours #123 was a surprise Tuesday pod on August 20, with just Ben and GP because Nick was on holiday. GP opened with his "second love of all loves," Tesla, which has a daily golden cross, a reclaim of the weekly 50 and rising volume. He also explained why he's concentrating his portfolio and has sold out of Shopify. The pair covered Coinbase and Bitcoin levels, Netflix versus Square, GP's Mag 7 picks and Boeing short, gold, Snowflake's range box, PayPal, software and Home Depot. GP closed with his outlook for the next three months and why rate cuts without a recession are bullish.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said that if Bitcoin goes the other way, Coinbase could see "closer to 113, which sounds like a lot, and it is, that's a 40% loss," and the 160 area "probably gets melted." Bitcoin's rejection at the nine weekly for three weeks while sitting below the 20 "gets concerning," and the next test is likely the 50 near 52,000. He's still "sticking with my guns" on September and has the first and last Mondays of the month marked: "Nothing is broken." Playing devil's advocate on Square, he said it "could easily be 30% from here... up to 90," and on Netflix the weekly nine and 50 are supporting it with the 20 coming down. He's looking for 295 on Tesla, a retest of the range, much as he'd see Square's high 80s as a retest of its range.
On Sunnova, he sees a possible inverted head and shoulders, and he would get off the train in the 12-to-13 range because of all the trapped holders. Snowflake has been in a range box for over a year. He'd buy the bottom of the box with a stop below 110 and get off the bus somewhere in the 170s–180s. It's 33 points below the daily 200-day ahead of tomorrow's earnings, so he'd sell into the 200-day on a mean reversion. "I probably would have bought 110. It went down to 107." PayPal is coming into a pivot around 75–76, and from the lows he'd think about taking a roughly 25% gain. From his old weekly watch list, Palo Alto still looks very good, and he still likes IGV for software, much like BUG on the cybersecurity side: "get a basket of them." ServiceNow looks great, but MongoDB, Snowflake and Datadog don't. Spotify has "a V," and he has "switched back" from Lowe's to Home Depot, which is close to taking out its downtrend for the year. On the Fed, he thinks its job "should be to keep the porridge warm."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP likes Tesla's setup: "it's marching to its own drum beat," and if it works out, "we finally breach the 300s." He bought Shopify from about 68 down to 32 in tranches and got out with close to 100% on most of the position. He doesn't see the upside without free money, and he wants "things that I really believe over the next 6 to 12 months." He's evaluating his Square position, a big loss, and he sees no accumulation and is close to taking the hit for mental clarity and freed-up capital. Coinbase "looks like a bear flag breakdown," with a bearish engulfing candle at the 200-day. He's still long, but he'll add only at the next zone: "we don't double tranche." He bought Coinbase at 175 on August 5 and sold near 195. The 160–158 area, where it consolidated in February and broke down in April 2022, is the solid support he'd watch for buyers to show up again.
Bitcoin has a daily death cross, with four failed attempts at the 50, but the mini death cross in October 2023 resolved to the upside. The first test of a rising weekly 50 after a golden cross is "typically like eyes closed buying." Netflix took out all-time highs and failed immediately, with heavy selling of 800 calls for September. He thinks covered-call selling is putting a lid on low-float names at resistance. He'd still rather hold Netflix than Square because it's the streaming leader. It's making a second test of all-time highs, "the more powerful breakout," and it has about $6 billion a year in free cash flow. He's a concentrated investor who doesn't like holding 40 names. He puts a set DCA amount into index funds and makes concentrated bets with the rest. He thinks AMD "is a horrible trader... max pain in all directions" but may benefit from rotation out of Nvidia. He owns Amazon and will always hold some.
From the Mag 7, he'd buy Tesla first and Meta second this week. Meta has been "consolidating above that breakout in January for now seven months," with the weekly MACD curling up. He doesn't see Apple's next leg and would be a seller if Tim Cook stepped down. With $100,000, he'd run 75% long and 25% short and "short the living piss out of Boeing," which he thinks is going back to 88. He has no interest in airlines. On gold, the move "is to 3,000 personally," or about 300 on GLD. He thinks Sunnova has had multiple distributions in a concentrated bull market, so he'd stick with First Solar, the solar leader. Twilio, Square and Roblox have been "houses of pain as opposed to easy gains." He called Teladoc "uninvestable," and Mobileye is a mean-reversion trade for maybe $3–5.
On Snowflake, the August 5 bottom drew less volume than the prior week's sell candle, while the QQQs saw huge buying volume that week, so "there's no accumulation in this chart." Wayfair has had accumulation for almost two years, but "it's a double-edged sword." PayPal's earnings candle was accumulation, and Palantir "is ready for some rest." For the next three months, he thinks markets rarely repeat a pattern three years in a row. He sees a potential pump into October OPEX and earnings, then weakness into the election. August was the first green OPEX since January. Rate cuts into a non-recession are bullish, and the QQQs pumped 31% into the 2019 cuts after Christmas 2018. Cuts to "three, three and a half" would be bullish for a longer period, but going "straight to zero again, that's bad news."
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