Chapters
00:00 Intro: Cookie_M Is Back
03:11 A Boring Market That May Be Ending
07:19 Cookie: Why He Left StockTwits
08:51 Cookie: Profits, Jobs & Why This Was Consolidation
13:30 Cookie: QQQ Weekly, "You Are Here"
18:37 GP: The 583 Measured Move & the Nine-Monthly MA
21:43 Cookie: The Yen Carry Trade Was a Gift
24:44 Cookie: QQQ Monthly to 696
28:51 Cookie: SPY Since 1994 & the Green Band
35:08 This Isn't a Bubble Yet
36:39 Cookie: The VIX & Its 50-Week MA
44:20 Cookie: Nvidia's 134 Pivot & the Ellipse
49:22 GP: Tesla's Event & Consumer AI
51:27 Cookie: Less in Chipmakers, More in Platforms
57:15 Cookie: Tesla's Next 10x & 295
1:02:49 Cookie: Bitcoin's Consolidation & 60,000
1:08:27 Crypto, AI & Fed Easing
1:12:32 Netflix's Channel & the 1,500 Projection
1:16:21 Last Words: Don't Be Apathetic
1:18:26 The Quarterly Challenge Picks
Market Hours #129 was a Thursday special, October 10, the Quarterly Cookie Call, with Cookie_M back on after about three months away from social media, joining Ben, Nick and GP. The QQQs had just broken out after a three-month consolidation, and Cookie's message was that this is the week the market changes: "it's now, it's not three weeks or a month from now." He walked through his QQQ, SPY, VIX, Nvidia, Tesla, Bitcoin and Netflix charts, with many of his long-range targets landing around the end of 2025 or early 2026. GP pushed on how weak the breakouts had been so far, and the hosts talked about Tesla's robotaxi event that night and the shift toward consumer AI. Someone noted that starting the move before the election is a good way "to lock people out."
Cookie_M's setups, levels and trades
Cookie said the market "has been a boring poopy market for months" but that period may be ending, maybe this week. His macro case is simple: corporate profits rising, inflation under control and people with jobs, and with earnings projections not revised down, "there's no reason why the market should fall apart." The last three months were "just another period of consolidation." He left StockTwits because so much of it uses "the news and the noise and innuendo" to support trades, and now he only spends time with his own group. On his QQQ weekly uptrend channel since 2019, the last three months "felt like a mini bear market," and this week's breakout is "you are here," like mid-April 2023 or the exit from COVID. Breakouts hold better when the moving averages are close, and with the 9 and 20 crossing 485 he could see the QQQs at 512 within three or four weeks. "Unless QQQ goes back below 485 I see this breakout holding." On the monthly, the breakout is at 484, and he's looking at 696 by early 2026, about 40%, stair-stepping like 2017.
He called the yen carry trade selloff "a gift." He said on August 5 that it was the bottom, then "filled my boots" on the Wednesday retest. On SPY since 1994, the top of his green band near 579 was huge resistance, which is why the April breakout attempt failed and the correction came. August was "technically perfect," from the top of the channel to the bottom while holding the 9-monthly MA. Along a 1990s-style gradient, he sees about 800–816 by the end of 2025 or early 2026, roughly 50%. "Don't get shaken out by the algos," because "there's no greater FUD than price action." For him, compute is what changes everything in AI, and a member of his group compared it to mobile going from 3G to 5G.
On the VIX, a bottoming 50-week MA has preceded bear markets, as in 2021, and a rolling-over 50-week has meant prolonged bull markets. This year's erratic VIX looked like 2019, when the QQQs went sideways from March to September. The high was 22.79 against his 22.85 pivot. Consolidating above 22.85 would be how things unravel. Otherwise he's looking for 17 and potentially 13–14, and VIX ranges are a guide to entering swings near 23 and trimming them low. Nvidia's 134 is "an extremely important pivot" and needs a monthly close above. Above it, he sees 160–171 quickly and maybe about 190 by year-end. "If it pulls back, buy the dips." He's reducing chipmakers and putting more into platform owners with access to a billion consumers, such as Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Tesla. AMD maybe gets "a little bit more love because it hasn't participated."
He thinks Tesla is back at 2013, not 2019: "it's not about the cars anymore," it's whether it can deliver consumer-facing AI. While Nvidia might do 2x or 3x, he's looking for Tesla to do another 10x, from about 200 to 2,000, over the next three to five years if it delivers. He expects it to get to 295 and struggle there, "the main gateway to 400, 500 and a thousand," then maybe 405–500 by mid-next year. He buys supports near the moving averages and would scale out at 295, not buy there. In Bitcoin, the consolidation ends in the next three or four weeks as the moving averages converge, and he wants the 60,000 area to hold. He's holding Bitcoin but "I've got no qualms in selling out if it doesn't do well," and he's looking for a move before month-end. Netflix keeps grinding up its channel, and his 1,500 projection, on the chart for two years, also targets end of 2025 or early 2026. His last words: "take this opportunity to buy those names that you like before they start pushing higher."
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick mostly let Cookie walk through his charts on this one. His pick for the hosts' quarterly challenge is VRT.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben ribbed GP that Snowflake was "up like 10 bucks from his failed entry point," calling GP "the ultimate contra trade on Snow." He took Snowflake for the quarterly challenge "because that's the trade GP gave up on." He asked Cookie about the elevated VIX, which "has seemed a bit weird to folks myself included" with the market at all-time highs. He also asked whether the risk-on crypto trade has to follow if tech goes. His close: "If there are things that I'm waiting to get out of or get into, now's the time to do that... it's go time."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP agreed the market is going higher, but when Meta broke its 542 all-time high after about eight months of consolidation, "I would have expected a bigger, larger, more sustained move." A $15 move in Meta "is 2%, that is not a breakout to me." He wants broad-based breakouts with real continuation: "I don't care what the QQQs are doing, it's what the other stocks are doing underneath." He thought the QQQs had to break out this month because the nine-monthly moving average was pressing price on the megacaps. His measured move for the QQQs is 583. Bottoms come from volume capitulation first and sentiment capitulation second, and the yen carry Sunday-night futures were the sentiment capitulation. "We haven't even experienced the bubble-like atmosphere yet." Caution starts on bubble-type moves above SPY 580, and "you don't consolidate like this in a bubble."
For him, Tesla's event that night is about consumer AI. Pushing it from August to October gave them time "to show the real life implications," with software names like MDB and Snowflake already showing AI in everyday use. He has argued since June that the Nvidia/Tesla pair trade is reversing toward consumer names. Tesla "always is about timing," and "they deliver, they just don't deliver on time." He also said Netflix should benefit, since AI could cut its number-one cost, production. Netflix "has been the easiest trade since May of 2022," the first stock to bottom in 2022. It's consolidating at all-time highs, not breaking down, and his long-standing thesis is that "when they allow this to go the rest of the market will come with it." His quarterly challenge pick is Wayfair.
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