Chapters
00:00 Intro: A Stock Picker's Market
00:31 Tesla Into Wednesday's Earnings
02:41 Ben Live From the Beach
04:47 Nick: Tesla's Trend Line & a Possible Island Bottom
07:51 Tesla's Risk to 200 & the Earnings Catalyst
09:24 GP: Tesla's First Monthly MACD Cross Since 2019
12:34 GP: Netflix, the Bull-Market Leader
15:38 GP: Apple, Amazon & Microsoft's Weekly 50
17:40 Nick: Apple, Amazon & Google Look Ready
19:44 $10,000 in One Megacap
22:19 Was July–August a Mini COVID?
25:57 Meta & the Three-Week Tight
29:03 GP: Coinbase vs. MicroStrategy
31:07 Nick: How He'd Size Into WULF
33:14 Bitcoin at 68K & a Possible 58K Flush
36:23 Drips Before It Rips
40:59 Nick: His Crypto Lotto Plays
43:07 HIMS
48:53 Elections & Uncertainty
52:04 Into the Close: Coinbase, Netflix & Nvidia
53:04 AMD Is Impossible to Trade
54:39 IWM After the Election
56:12 AMD or Micron?
57:49 One Name Each: Palo Alto, SentinelOne & DJT
1:00:25 GP: Dave's Monthly Accumulation
1:02:27 Spotify, Direct Listings & Palantir
Market Hours #130 went out live on Monday, October 21, two weeks before the election, with Ben, Nick and GP. Ben joined from the beach after missing the previous week's show. It was "a stock picker's market," with Tesla stuck in its range before Wednesday's earnings while Nvidia, Apple and Netflix pushed toward all-time highs. The hosts debated which megacap they'd put $10,000 into, whether July and August were a mini COVID shakeout, and whether Bitcoin needs one more flush. GP played "wet blanket," expecting a couple more weeks of nothing, and argued that institutions make a market drip before it rips. They also covered Meta's retest, Coinbase vs. MicroStrategy, HIMS, AMD vs. Micron and one name each, plus GP's case for Dave.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick tries to be optimistic on Tesla. He has a position from under the 200-day, so he isn't too concerned, and he's "definitely not going to allow the trade to turn red." He calls himself someone who's "just looking at the charts," "like a gunslinger." Tesla is "hanging by a thread" just above the trend line he's watching, and below the 50-day. If price gaps out of the past week's range higher and pops above the 50-day, you could call it an island bottom off that trend line and get "a squeeze." If you're not already in, though, "you might as well just set an alert" between 260 and 280. It has to pop to that 265 area, and "that's when the trade will really get running."
He loves Apple and thinks Apple, Amazon and Google "all three of them look absolutely ready," while Microsoft is the least interesting to him. Apple's August 5 gap down filled the measured move from its head and shoulders, and once it reclaimed the neckline it wedged, broke out and is flirting with highs. With $10,000 for one megacap, he'd pick Amazon, sitting in "a three or four week tight" with a measured move to about 220–230: "Amazon's got a 40 point run coming," while Apple has "an easy 20 to 30." He'd be fine putting a starter on WULF, sized to average down toward 5–5.50 and to add through 6.50, "so I'd be sized to leg in either direction." In crypto he mainly DCAs Bitcoin and also holds Ethereum, which "looks great." Smaller holdings like ICP, Solana, Avalanche, FET, Litecoin, Near and Chainlink are "almost like small lotto plays." He's been cheerleading HIMS, which has a big cup and handle and an igniting bar last week. He got shaken out in July and is back in. For his one name, he picked Palo Alto.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben joined from the beach and apologized for missing the previous week. He'd passed out after a medical issue and woke up after the show's start time. On Tesla, he said "your risk is down to 200," and if it loses the 200-day again that's a bigger issue, but "I'm not putting money to work in Tesla right now." With $10,000 for a megacap, he went with FNGU, the 3x megacap ETF. He asked whether July to August, an 84-point drop in the QQQs over five weeks with the VIX hitting 67, was "our mini COVID," given what the market did after 2020. Bitcoin had a 10% week but is "still having trouble at that 68 level," the number it has to get above and hold. He floated a flush to 57,000–58,000 that would "create an insane viable bottom," though he'd rather it stop messing around. He passed along a friend's point that Bitcoin's long sideways stretch looks like institutional accumulation since the ETFs launched. He fumbled HIMS at 13 or 14 during the August 5 selloff, when he chose better-value names over a speculative one. AMD is "the bane of my existence," and he's worse at trading it than anything else: "you just have to own it." Between AMD and Micron, "for me it's AMD all day every day." He's long SentinelOne. 28 is a big level, and if it gets through, "I really like it after that."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said that until Tesla "meaningfully" shows an earnings growth cycle, it's going to stay like this. It's neutral technically, and for three years neutral has meant the downside bias resumes. Tesla "has always and forever been an earnings conversation." It has only broken out substantially on profitability in 2013 and sustained profitability in 2019, and this is the first earnings on a monthly MACD cross since October 2019. The monthly is bullish, but the weekly and daily "look like a little bit of garbage." Tesla coming back to 220 without finding a buyer worries him, and 255–260 into earnings would have shown the bulls showing up. Meanwhile Nvidia, Apple and Netflix, "three of your strongest indicators," are near all-time highs, and "the longer they keep it here the higher it's going." Netflix had a rounding top at 700 in 2021, but now it has a rounding bottom near all-time highs after 16 weeks of consolidation: "a three-year consolidative breakout." A retest of 700 is possible, and the measured move is about 1,220–1,250. On Apple, "the bigger the base, higher in space." Off the 2020–2024 base, "we're really just starting," and you can't get Nvidia to $5 trillion without Apple getting there too. Amazon has the same rounding-bottom structure. Microsoft is the weakest megacap, sitting on its rising weekly 50, which looks like rotation out of it.
That's why his $10,000 megacap pick was Microsoft, with a tight stop at the 50-week: "the Fang names off their weekly 50s are usually powerful setups." He sees it going to 470, close to a 20% trade, and might split it with Google. "The Fang names are best to buy when they're breaking down, not when they're breaking out." He agreed July–August looked like a mini version of COVID: "it's all scale." Meta looks like it wants to retest the 530–545 level and its 20-week moving average before earnings, which would "probably be a great buy." He also corrected the chat: a four-week tight "is not a thing." It's a three-week tight, with closes within about 1.5–2% of each other. Coinbase is "severely underperforming" MicroStrategy, which made a perfect 200-day bounce and a 52-week pivot-high breakout while Coinbase sat 30–40% below its 200-day. That's a time to "put your caution hat on." Markets "drip before it rips." AppLovin shook out into its 200-day after monster accumulation and is up nearly 200% since, and the 2020 COVID drop was 37% in five weeks after years of accumulation.
He expects another two weeks of this market doing nothing. The IWM likely won't move until after the election, and then "the release is going to be insane." Between AMD and Micron he has no interest in either. "If you're going to be in the AI space then be in the AI space": Nvidia, Broadcom, Dell, Oracle. For his one name he picked DJT, "a garbage stock," but over 34 "it's a ripper," with a move to about 46, roughly 50%. He doesn't own it. He also likes Dave, a small fintech worth about $500–600 million. It's in stage two after going from 6 to 50, shows monster accumulation above the nine-month moving average and is a low floater, and if it breaks out his technical target is 147. He avoids Spotify and anything that skips the traditional IPO route, such as direct listings and SPACs.
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