Chapters
00:00 Intro: Back From the Beach
02:05 Megacap Earnings Week & Smart Enough for the Trend
04:48 MicroStrategy: The Only Thing Working
06:57 Nick: Half Out of MicroStrategy & the Three-Gap-Up Rule
08:31 Coinbase & the Miners
09:38 Nick: QQQ Levels, 485 & 493
12:22 GP: Nothing Matters Until After Tuesday
14:01 GP: IWM All-Time Highs by Friday?
17:22 TNA & Regionals
18:23 Nick: QQQ Gap & a 481 Buy
20:33 Tesla After Earnings: Adding?
22:44 GP: Tesla's Only Two Expansion Moves
25:30 GP: 254.50 Is the Line in the Sand
27:36 Nick: Tesla Needs 290
31:26 Nick: Tesla's Gap Candle & the Flat 200-Day
34:10 GP: Tesla Doesn't Trade Sideways
37:36 Stock-Pick Contest & DJT
43:36 Tesla at New Lows, MicroStrategy & Bitcoin 70K
44:40 Coinbase vs. MicroStrategy & the 200 SMA
48:14 Nick: HIMS, His Biggest Position
48:45 GP: Digital Turbine's Triangle Breakout
51:24 Amazon Earnings
56:53 Into the Close
57:54 A Giants Parlay & Football Talk
Market Hours #131 went out live on Monday, October 28, at about 3 p.m. Eastern, with Ben, Nick and GP. Ben was back from a beach trip, it was the last episode but one before the election, and the megacaps were reporting that week. MicroStrategy was "the only thing working," and GP's view was that "nothing matters until after next Tuesday," though he thinks the IWM could get close to all-time highs before then. Nick laid out his QQQ levels, the hosts spent a long stretch on Tesla's post-earnings move and the 254.50 line, and they also covered Coinbase's lag, HIMS, Digital Turbine and Amazon heading into its earnings.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick sold half his MicroStrategy trade on Friday and is "kicking myself" after another 10% day. It's about 27% off its range but "not even close" to done in his view. It's getting extended, but he prefers blowout moves to grinds. It gapped over the 200 level it had been chopping around, and he'd like to see the "three gap up rule" over the next two days before talking about blow-off moves, all while Bitcoin was still under 70,000. He read the QQQs as an ascending triangle that broke out through 485. With price above the 10-day and 20-day and the moving averages stacked, he's not reading much into individual candles. Under 493 he'd "start maybe getting a little defensive," and under 485 is a "big time warning" and a breakout failure. The 50-day is at 480, and a hard failure could mean a move back to about 430. The gap from about 471 to 482 had a range low of 478. If he were buying the QQQs, he'd put orders at 481 with a stop around 469. He sold some individual stocks down on Friday but doesn't plan to sell much else unless he's stopped or trail-stopped out.
On Tesla, he said it has to get above the 290 area to show it's releasing from the range it's been in for most of three years. In the near term, the gap-up candle is the highest-volume candle, so price could gravitate to its high or low and hold. He wouldn't short it. A flat 200-day makes directional moves hard, but the monthly MACD pull-in is what he likes to see, and "I don't do well holding shorts especially overnight." A week or two of sideways action would let momentum traders define risk against the gap, around the 230s. His biggest position is HIMS, which "still hasn't broken out yet." He doesn't own Amazon but is watching 191–192: "price is above 192 and I got the cash available, I'd throw a dart at it."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben opened the show back in the office after time at the beach with family. He's long Tesla and added "sub 200," so he saw no reason to add before earnings: "you're wrecking your average price going into an EPS announcement." With a low cost basis, he'll sit, let it work and dollar-cost average if it sells off. He sees similarities between Tesla's 2017–2019 formation and 2021 to the present: "history doesn't always repeat but sometimes it rhymes." Still, "I'm not predicting it." On Coinbase, anyone who used his line and got long at 161 would be up about 33%, and the hosts noted they first got long in the 50s. It's "a massive cup and handle." He's "very long Amazon," doesn't rely on earnings to move it, and noted the Amazon and QQQ charts looked almost identical.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said that if you're in alignment with the trend, "you're not really that smart." The real question is whether you recognized the bull market started two years ago. MicroStrategy "does not care" what Bitcoin is doing and has front-run Bitcoin by about 25%. He has more in Coinbase, which has "underperformed the asset class by a long shot." MicroStrategy double-bottomed at its 200 SMA on the pullback, while Coinbase sat 30–40% below it, and "when you don't hold the 200 SMA on a consolidation that's always signs of something that wasn't right." The longer Coinbase's handle gets, the worse that cup and handle becomes. On the QQQs, "nothing matters until after next Tuesday," and he's watching what sits underneath. The megas keep the market range-bound, but "the bigger opportunity remains in the small caps." Nobody expects the IWM at all-time highs by Friday, "but you heard it here first," maybe around 240. In 2020 small caps were up 6.8% election week. TNA, the 3x IWM, has doubled from 44 to 90, and regionals were strong. Microsoft was red, and Netflix had done nothing since breaking out.
On Tesla, he said there have only been two expansion moves in its history, both on earnings: profitability in 2013 and sustained profitability after the Model 3 ramp in 2019. Margins have now expanded two quarters in a row, and the energy business hit about 30–31%. "Is this the earnings that breaks Tesla free? So far I think that's the case." Still, he expected a try at 271 to fail and shorts to pile in, since it's done that for three years. 254.50, the October 2022 gap down, is "your line in the sand." A daily or weekly close below it would be a short, while above it "Tesla does not do sideways on expansion moves." He'd want the next three to five candles to go straight up, with upside levels at 280, 299, 315, 355 and 414. He doesn't want it much below 254–258, the October 2022 and October 2024 gap-down area. Only about 45% is institutionally owned, which is why the moves are so wild. In 2020 it went from 386 to about 950 in four months and then retested the 386 area.
Digital Turbine (APPS) is a symmetrical triangle breakout and a turnaround story after back-to-back quarters of earnings growth and smaller losses: "monster volume and then consolidation," similar to Carvana at its bottom. 3.06 is the stop-out area. Over 4.15 it has released the weekly 50, and he sees it heading to about 7.80. It's a low floater, and those tend to perform better if small caps break out. On Amazon, it's a rounding bottom this time, but mature megacaps might get a 5% or at most 9–10% earnings day, not a 50–60% move. Bigger moves build over time when margins expand, as with Tesla's 22% day after two quarters of expanding margins. DJT is "the biggest pump and dump scheme on the planet," and "it's going to be a fun short when it happens but it's not now."
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