Chapters
00:00 Intro: The Day Before Election Day
00:34 GP: Everything's Stuck & the Spring Setup
04:12 GP: Netflix Keeps Rejecting 760
07:48 Ben: Apathy & Getting Lulled to Sleep
10:21 Second Terms & What the Institutions Expect
12:57 GP: The VIX Coil
15:29 Nick: Optimistic Either Way
19:36 Prices, Insurance & Labor Costs
23:11 The Election Conversation
50:42 Back to the Market: Nowhere Since July
51:44 Nick: Know Your Setups & Stick to Your Guns
53:19 GP: AppLovin's Closing Stop & SMCI's Gap
56:23 Ben: Self-Discipline Over Technicals
57:56 GP: 17 Stops & Mental Capital
59:30 Post-Election Picks: TNA, TLT & Short Gold
Market Hours #132 went out live on Monday, November 4, the day before Election Day, with Ben, Nick and GP. GP's market read was short: Tesla, Coinbase, Roblox and the rest are "stuck," and "everyone thinks we're going to get unstuck" after the election. He laid out how a spring setup could shake people out first. Ben thinks the slow drift has lulled everyone to sleep. Most of the middle of the show was a long election-eve conversation, which this recap skips. Then the hosts came back to trading discipline: stops on a closing basis, gaps through stops and protecting your mental capital. Over the show the SPY was down about 0.1% and the QQQs about 0.07%. They closed with post-election picks: TNA, TLT and short gold.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said he "can't get a good feel" on which direction his friends who are in cash, or the momentum guys, really think the market will go. Whoever wins, he's optimistic just because it'll be over "and that we can move on and start to address some of the issues." With the market going nowhere, his advice was general. "Know the setups that you're after," whether candle combos or bigger patterns, "continue to focus on relative strength," and set alerts on names you want to catch on a breakout or missed and want lower. "Stick to your guns so you're not overtrading." If you're in an accumulation mindset, "this market's great because there is no follow through either direction." If your strategy is dialed, "everybody on the internet works for you," and a ticker he tweets is just a scanning tool. If it doesn't fit your pattern, it doesn't matter who tweeted it. When two traders' patterns overlap, that's confluence, but "the trade is yours, the setup is yours."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said, "I've got a great feel." The market's easy drift higher has created "a lot of apathy," with people getting jerked around and deciding to "just be in the market" until it works itself out. "I think it's lulling everybody to sleep more than anything." He wouldn't be surprised by a sharp pullback, pointing to Bitcoin, which spiked toward 74,000 and fell back to the 67,000–68,000 area it has revisited many times, though he's not expecting a huge decline. A Netflix drop back to 700 would be about 8%, and if the indices did that over one or two sessions, people would panic as they did in the yen carry trade. He noted that institutions are split on the election outcome, which to him lends credence to GP's spring idea. Either way, "some type of move is coming sooner rather than later" once the election is decided. On discipline, he said you can be excellent at reading charts, but "if you don't obey your stops or your entries it doesn't matter how good your technical skills are." That's self-discipline. For his post-election pick, he took a big position in TNA.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said everything has been stuck for about two months, and the market could produce "a spring setup, which is a quick move down to the bottom of the range, one last shake." That would come in the small caps where "everyone in their mother is waiting for that election to break out," not the megacaps. Roku looked like a cup and handle, got "absolutely destroyed" on decent earnings right to the bottom of its years-long range, and buyers stepped in. Roblox got busted down to 37 and went right back to the top of its range after earnings. AppLovin tagged its weekly 50 before its monster breakout. He wonders if they'll do the same to the XBI and IWM, then "boom, we ramp hard." "I'm not saying it's going to happen, I can see it happening." The VIX coil has to be released, and its structure suggests an upside move.
Netflix broke out after three years and has rejected 760, the earnings-candle high, "probably five dozen times in the last six days" on a 30-minute chart. Tesla rejected at 271 and change, Roblox sold at the top of its range, and Meta sold at 602. "None of it looks bad but it just doesn't look ready." He sees Netflix's action as a three-week tight institutional hold, a CAN SLIM / William O'Neil setup, though a quick retest of the 700 level it tested for four months is possible after an all-time-high breakout. On AppLovin that day, his stop was 306 on a closing basis, and the five-minute opening bar was down 15% with no news, "just a seller." So you have to set your parameters first. SMCI's stop was 39.56 and it opened around 33: "just because it's $6 lower... you get out." Good charting skills help you avoid "taking 17 stops before it works." Those stops destroy your mental capital, and you end up playing on tilt. If you've been stopped out 17 times, put the stock aside until you can look at it objectively. His post-election call was short gold, because it's "too heavy, it's too hot," with a stretched monthly RSI.
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