Chapters
00:08 Intro: Meet Bearish GP
01:09 GP: The Weekly 21 SMA
04:14 Netflix, the Bull Market Indicator
05:49 GP: A Shake to 334?
07:24 GP: Netflix and Apple Have to Lead
10:02 Nick: Chopping in a Range
12:03 Nick: The Gift Zone and 310 to 320
15:08 Ben: Dumb and Dumber
16:40 GP: The Nasdaq Composite's Adam and Eve
18:13 Nick: Let the Market Come to You
18:43 Square and CarMax Shorts
19:14 The Dollar, Rates and the VIX
20:46 Sector ETFs Breaking Down
22:19 GP: Tesla's Own World
23:58 Communication Services and Meta
24:59 Cybersecurity
25:31 Target, Walmart and McDonald's
28:02 Everything Underneath Is Getting Smoked
29:39 No Quality Setups
31:50 GP: Mini Head and Shoulders
33:23 Nvidia, ASML and SMCI
36:35 CRM, Shopify and Global-e
38:07 Raising Cash?
39:09 GP: Waiting on This Week
41:22 Nick: Rate Hikes and Market Tops
43:57 GP: When Expected Setups Break
45:02 Rivian, Palantir and Chewy
46:34 MasterCard and Visa
47:38 SmileDirectClub and Gasoline
49:44 CBOE, GitLab and More Charts
53:52 Tesla, Snowflake and Wingstop
56:28 Bitcoin's Range
57:02 Domino's, Autodesk and Foot Locker
1:00:43 Ring, PagerDuty and Twilio
1:02:19 Cathie Wood and Teladoc
1:04:23 Goldman Says Mega Caps Are Cheap
1:05:57 Why Would Small Caps Lead?
1:06:58 Rivian Hit Piece
1:08:03 Rates Blowing Off
1:09:36 Wrap-Up: The Most Bearish Episode Yet
Market Hours #87 went out live on Monday evening, October 2, with Ben, Nick and GP. Ben introduced "bearish gisa," and GP explained why the QQQs need to reclaim the weekly 21 SMA this week, led by Netflix and Apple. Nick saw a range and the 200-day catching up, not a breakdown. The three ran through a long list of broken charts, from Target and Square to the sector ETFs, and Ben signed off on the most bearish episode the show had done.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said "when the Market's in a Range... this is when the most amount of people get hurt." For him, the QQQs are still in "that 350 to let's just say 380 390 range," and "until something significant changes I'm in a camp that we're just chopping while we went the 200 day catchup." Apple was only a couple of points from its 200-day, and he called Tesla pretty important as well. On the QQQ monthly, he didn't love August's tail, but September came on lower volume and is holding the 12- and 18-period moving averages that he watches. "I have relatively small positions on right now I'm long but they're relatively small position." "From a Weinstein... point of view we're in the gift zone right now," at the 150-day or 30-week. If the floor falls out, he sees about a 20-to-30-point move lower and could even see a retest of 310 to 320. If the QQQs went back to last year's lows, "I would be a buyer," since that would just complete a giant channel from the August 2020 lows. He also cited O'Neil, who wrote that three consecutive rate hikes typically mark a significant market top.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben introduced GP as "bearish gisa." He reminded GP that for all of 2022 he waited on Netflix as his bull-market indicator, and now "this price action over a few weeks has really shifted your optimism." Ben said "I made 30% on some QQQ calls today" in less than 30 minutes. "I feel like Harry and you guys are Lloyd of Dumb and Dumber," he said. "I don't think we're going to actually break down." Gas prices have come down in the Southeast, and he saw $2.99 in his neighborhood. He closed by calling it the most bearish episode yet: "I have been bearish Nick has been bearish... but never have you been so bearish."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said he's "just cautious." The QQQs broke the weekly 21 SMA two weeks ago and were rejected trying to reclaim it last week, so "if this week we don't reclaim the 21 SMA then you have potential for further further downside." The nine weekly is crossing below the 21, which "is inherently bearish." He thinks there "could be a pretty nasty shake to the 334 area," where the sideways range started. "I personally believe it has to be led by Netflix and apple," the only two mega caps that put in red weeks last week. Netflix is acting like the end of 2021, when it went "from 700 to 397 on earnings." On the Nasdaq Composite, 13,181 is "the Adam and Eve kind of breakout retest," and it closed above it last week. "I do like how the NASDAQ Composite is looking and I'm hopeful that apple and Netflix will lead."
Tesla "tends to operate in its own world" because it isn't heavily owned by institutions, while Apple and Netflix are, so their underperformance matters more. The XLE took out the 50-day on heavy volume but is still at the top of its distribution range. Many charts show "these mini kind of Head and Shoulders distributions" that are completing their measured moves, and "the ideal thing is now buyers show up." If the QQQs don't reclaim this week, "I will be raising a lot of cash because... I really don't want to sit through another 37% draw down like 2022." Netflix's 20-week is crossing over its 200-week, "an inherently bullish scenario," yet the price action is bearish. When the XBI, XLU, XLE and XLP break below rising moving averages and don't recover quickly, "it's definitely time to be very very cautious."
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