Chapters
00:00 Intro: GP on the Road From Canada
01:01 Last Week's Bear Show
02:35 GP: A Follow-Through Day on Low Volume?
04:42 Nick: Friday Was the Follow-Through
06:46 Bearish Bags
07:49 GP: Ping-Ponging Between Pivots
08:20 Nick: Wedges Into the 200-Day
09:56 GP: Meta's Relative Strength
10:57 Nvidia's Head and Shoulders Debate
13:02 GP: Netflix's Character Change
14:34 The XLE and the 10-Year
17:37 The Dollar's Batman
19:10 Tesla: Bear Flag or Not?
21:14 Nick: Tesla's Line in the Sand
22:16 Ben: Still Riding the CarMax Short
23:17 GP: Lockheed's Warning Shot
25:23 ASML and Lululemon
28:04 Ben: Out of Target Long Ago
28:34 Coinbase and Its 200-Day
29:37 Ben: Closer to Zero Than 400
31:43 GP: The Nasdaq Adam and Eve Bottom
33:14 Ben: Cautious and in Cash
36:16 GP: Lean Into Relative Strength
37:50 Nick: The Trend Is Up
38:53 GP: Small Caps Above the Breakaway Gap
40:30 Nick: The First 60-Minute Range
45:11 Ben: The First 30 Minutes
46:41 GP: Opening Ranges on Every Time Frame
48:44 Ben: Cutting a Losing Trade
50:16 Tesla's Intraday Gaps
51:16 Nick: The Fifth Touch
52:47 GP: Institutions Build the Floor
56:21 Ben: Taking 20 to 30%
58:23 Nick: Measured Moves, Not Targets
1:00:27 Nick: A Daily Stop
1:02:02 GP: Seasonality and Tax-Loss Season
1:04:35 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #88 went out live on Monday evening, October 9, with Ben, Nick and GP. GP called in on the road back from Canada. After a bearish show the week before, Ben played the bear for the first half hour. The hosts debated whether Monday was a real follow-through day, Nvidia's head and shoulders, Tesla's flag and the QQQ trend. Nick walked through using the first 60-minute range to pick a direction for the day, and GP closed on seasonality and tax-loss season.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said "I would have almost argued that Friday was the follow through day," since the QQQs held their mid-350s-to-380 range and broke out of a small double bottom above 360. He likes the QQQs more than the SPY or the IWM. Apple and Microsoft both have "pretty symmetrical looking descending wedges like right into the 200 day." Netflix put in a three-week tight off the 200-day, and cybersecurity, the strongest group today, broke out between Friday and Monday. Palo Alto is right under its all-time highs. On Nvidia, it has to get back to the mid-470s for him to call it a head and shoulders, and long term "I think it's just buying time for that 200 day to catch up." On Tesla, "we've retraced more than 50% of like this most recent leg down," and his line in the sand is around 250 to 255. He thinks Lululemon "held the 40 week," and in a range, he doesn't care about the short-term moving averages.
"The trend is up and it's been up all year," so the odds favor it continuing unless the QQQs break under 350 to 355. He shared a day-trading approach he learned from Michael Parness, based on "the first 60 Minute range of the day." If a gap gets filled within the first 60 minutes, assume a trend day in that direction. If it doesn't, the gap acts more like resistance. When Tesla closed back above its 60-minute range this morning, he tweeted that shorts were about to get trapped, because "as soon as price climbs back in the range the very first assumption I'm going to have is price is going to get gravitate towards the high end." "It's saved me a significant amount of money." He looks for five touches in any pattern, and if price doesn't break out after the fifth, "it just needs more time." He separates "measured moves and... targets," since a target implies a guarantee. When he day trades stock, he sets a daily stop, such as $500, and if he's down that much, he calls it quits.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "the market said no no bags we're going higher regardless of what these clowns on this podcast says." Then he played "bearish bags" for the first half hour, joking that the QQQs would end the year "closer to zero than 400." On Nvidia, "it's a freaking head and shoulders,", but on Tesla, his stock pick, he pushed back on the bear-flag read. His CarMax short is "still up like 140%," and he has taken a lot of profit with a stop at 110%. He hasn't been long Target since the 200s. In his honest view, the QQQs either push through his downtrend line or probably head back to 330 or 335 near the 200-day, which would not surprise him. "I've trimmed a lot of position I'm sitting on a lot of cash." He's waiting for a breakout through the downtrend line, "less than 2% away," before getting more bullish.
He does something similar to Nick in the first 30 minutes, using three- and five-minute candles to mark the high and low. "I love being out of my trades in the 10 o'clock hour I'm out by 11 at the latest." On Friday he tried to scalp puts and walked away down 35%, and "you gotta... be willing to cut the trade when you know it's a loser." He's happy capturing 20 to 30% on day trades. Last week he left a few runners on with the same stop and caught some 45–50% moves.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP was skeptical of a follow-through day "when the bond market is closed," on very low volume and with more Nasdaq decliners than advancers. Names keep reaching pivots and flipping, so "it just feels like we're ping ponging between short covering and not sure covering." Meta "put in a green month" in September when everything else got sold, so "that relative strength is showing up continuously." Netflix has been weak for 15 to 18 straight days but now shows a "character change," though it could still be a bounce into earnings. Lockheed's power gap is "the warning shot," the kind of high-volume candle you want to see in beaten-down names like Square and PayPal.
The Nasdaq Composite's "Adam and Eve breakout retest" has held around 13,181 for three straight weeks, so "if we launch out of this kind of four Monon consolidation it the biases to the upside." Because relative-strength groups like cybersecurity and the XLC are breaking higher, "the bias should lean to the upside for the most part." The IWM still holds the 2020 breakaway gap despite the rapid rise in the TNX, and the XLF is holding too. But "we need more clear macro signals," and the market could rotate between levels for another six to 12 months. Opening ranges work on every time frame, from intraday to daily and weekly. Big players are "not buying breakouts... they're the ones that are putting in the floor." Into tax-loss season, "the losers will continue to be losers," so "don't be buying Disney and Target down here," and wait for December. Carvana got beaten all of last year and took off once the year flipped.
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