Chapters
00:00 Intro: Nick's StockTwits Timeout
02:33 Ben: Cautious, Not Fully Bearish
05:11 Nick: Last Week Was a Warning Shot
06:43 GP: Who Is Going to Participate?
11:24 GP: Choppy Intraday Action
12:56 A Lost Decade?
13:28 Nick: Tradable Rallies Are Enough
15:35 GP: Netflix and the Dispersion
18:09 GP: The Monetary Regime Shift
19:13 Gold, Energy and Gas Prices
21:44 Ben: The SMH Cup and Handle
22:15 Ben: Nvidia's Head and Shoulders
24:20 Ben: Tesla and Netflix Could Lift Everything
24:50 GP: No More Earnings Run-Ups
28:29 GP: Tesla's Third Year Sideways
30:04 Ben: Airbnb and Cybersecurity
31:41 Defense Stocks and Kratos
33:45 GP: Lockheed as Exit Liquidity
34:17 Walmart, Costco and Viewer Names
35:50 Meta, AMD and Coinbase
37:30 Ben: Cloudflare Since the 20s
38:01 GP: Home Depot, Boeing and Food Names
40:35 GP: Non-Tech Beatdowns
41:05 XLC, Charter and Chewy
43:44 China Names and NIO
45:48 GP: The IWM Breakaway Gap Trade
49:30 Nick: Kratos and Earnings-Season Favorites
51:34 Nick: Energy Names
53:38 The Dollar
54:41 GP: OpEx Week and AMD Call Walls
56:14 Diamondback, Oxy and Schlumberger
1:00:23 Ben: Bitcoin Above the Monthly Nine
1:02:28 Palantir and SoFi
1:04:31 GP: Square and PayPal Have No Accumulation
1:06:35 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #89 went out live on Monday evening, October 16, with Ben, Nick and GP. Nick had just been put in a StockTwits timeout. After a rough week, the hosts asked which names would actually participate if the QQQs broke out. They also covered the damage underneath the indices, Netflix and Tesla into earnings, Nvidia's head and shoulders, cybersecurity and defense names. GP explained his IWM breakaway-gap trade, and Nick talked through his energy favorites.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said he's cautiously bullish. Last week "was definitely kind of a warning shot," and if they'd seen follow-through to the downside he would be much more nervous. If the market holds here, Thursday's high is the pivot, both for the trend line and as a shorter-term swing pivot that "a lot of breakout Traders are going to be watching." What he liked about this year is that "the rally in my opinion has been tradable." The QQQs could be range bound "for the next... however many years as long as the rallies are tradeable." He likes expensive stocks. MongoDB looks "gorgeous" and is setting up to break out of a descending wedge. When the indices go sideways, "that's when the majority of us... get annihilated."
Kratos is his newest position at about $17 a share, in his lotto account, on the view that "I don't think we're going to use less drones." He has "quite a bit of dry powder" for earnings season. Nvidia and Microsoft are probably his favorites, along with Tesla, KLA, Broadcom, Zscaler and CrowdStrike. He has been watching Regeneron and Vertex, but "anytime I start to get involved in vrtx I just get chopped to pieces," and he'd want the IBB and XBI trending first. "I'm probably the world's worst energy or Commodities Trader," but he likes how energy names are setting up. Diamondback "is probably my favorite of the energy," back at all-time highs, and "I like SLB" too. He defines a tight weekly close as "a 1 to 2 and a half% range," or up to 3%.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "bearish bags" had the QQQs "rejecting right off that trend line." He wants that trend line broken, but he's "not all bearish." He added to his Tesla position and to SentinelOne, which was up 5% today, and sold puts to open a position he'll reveal later. Tesla is in a wedge that everybody is drawing, and earnings are "probably gonna be the Catalyst" either way. He's sticking with his quarterly pick. "When it's too obvious it's kind of like a red flag to me." He and GP did a 20% trade together this morning. He drew "a big cup and handle... on the old SMH," and "when sem's lead that's usually a bigger rally than just one sector." Nvidia's head and shoulders "hasn't played out yet," and if Nvidia can get into the 470s, it fights it off. "If Nvidia Falls all see all the chips are falling."
If Tesla and Netflix are both up multiple percent and hold it through the week, "Tesla and Netflix alone are enough to give the entire Market some juice." He's long Tesla. He sold puts to open on Airbnb, which has a cup and handle: "if I don't get it I don't get it." "We've talked about cyber security for months and it's finally broken out," with Zscaler, CrowdStrike and Palo Alto. AMD, "my baby," looks great. He's been in Cloudflare "since the 20s one of my biggest winners of all time," and "when this range finally breaks out it is going to go crazy." He's in NIO calls for 2025. He's "still positive on the Bitcoin side," since it crossed back above the nine-month moving average that Cookie_M was waiting for: "if Bitcoin is going crazy we know it's a risk on environment."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP came in with "indifference." The QQQs look like they could break out and tag 390, but "what is it going to be Nvidia and which which combination of Mega caps." Fastly went from 8 to 22 in three months, so a pullback made sense, "but I was not expecting the depth of the pullback" in Fastly, Wayfair, Carvana and many others. Meanwhile the QQQs are still at 370. "I believe I said it in May 2021," he said of a lost decade. Netflix is "one of your best kind of leading the market," and it's down 85 points since the CFO's comments, much like January 2022. At 360, it's back where it was in 2017, and there are "lost six or seven years" in PayPal, Square, Roku and Intel. Investors can get "five and a half% from treasury bills," so why buy Wayfair after it lost 50% in three weeks.
Before 2020, names ran up into earnings, but "we stopped seeing that" around October 2021. Netflix bounced $5 after losing $97, and "when Netflix behaves like this going into earnings it goes further." It also never filled its 2022 gap, stopping at 485. Tesla probably "kills a lot of premiums on earnings and then has its real move after," and it's in year three of sideways. He sees Lockheed as "the final kind of exit liquidity to get out while they can on war news." Home Depot had six straight down weeks and Boeing nine, and he saw a note that hedge funds are "insanely short all food names." He thinks "the economy is doing pretty well," but many non-tech charts have been beaten down.
He got long the IWM on Friday. It has made seven attempts at breaking the breakaway gap, each with a higher low, and "the volume is kind of slowing down too so I... like the risk to reward." He's "a big fan of the the hammer inverted Hammer candle patterns on the weeklys," and he's already up 100% on the calls. The four-hour NQ is near a 50/200 cross, and he expects a fairly bullish OpEx week. AMD has "like 20 30,000 calls at every $5 increment strike all the way up to 140." Square and PayPal have "no accumulation." "Without volume there there's no way this bottoms," so you'll need a monster volume bar, a full retrace of it and then a base.
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This is not financial advice. Market Hours is for education and entertainment only. Always do your own research.
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