Chapters
00:00 Intro
01:41 Ben: Did the Bulls Lose Hope?
03:47 GP: No Bid and Negative Gamma
05:20 GP: Microsoft as the Market's Proxy
07:23 GP: The QQQ Monthly Says Buy Dips
08:56 Doom Content Versus the Chart
10:29 Nick: No Easy V-Bottom
11:32 Nick: Trade What's Moving
12:36 GP: The Dispersion Trade
14:42 Ben: Bitcoin Is Risk-On
17:17 GP: Netflix and the Flow
18:20 Ben: Missing Morning Trades
18:51 Nick: Names Holding Long-Term Levels
19:55 GP: Laggards Could Become Monsters
20:26 Ben: Cloudflare's Base
21:59 FOMC Next Week
25:40 GP: Cash Is Working Again
27:46 Max-Pain Price Action
28:48 GP: The QQQs Are Up 33%
29:52 Nick: Where a Falling Knife Lands
33:31 Nick: Bullish as Long as 322 Holds
34:33 Nick: Sell Off Into the Fed
35:36 GP: Splits Were the Tell
37:38 Weak Into the Fed, Then 434?
39:41 Gold
40:43 GP: Shorting the XLE
41:48 Ben: CarMax, Rivian and Cloudflare
43:49 Ben: SOXL, Cyber and Roblox
45:52 GP: Profitable Versus Unprofitable
47:24 GP: ARM and SPX Call Flow
48:25 GP: Disney's Mean Reversion
51:32 Viewer Charts
55:36 Nick: Uber and DraftKings
58:47 Short Setups
1:01:58 GP: Is There a Good IPO?
1:04:04 Ben: The Last Show From Georgia
1:06:42 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #90 went out live on Monday evening, October 23, with Ben, Nick and GP. It was Ben's last show from Georgia before his move to Kentucky. After a brutal down week, the hosts talked about negative gamma, the QQQ monthly trend, the dispersion trade and Bitcoin's jump to 35,000. They also covered where a deeper pullback could land, the FOMC, stock splits, Cloudflare and Roblox. GP asked whether any IPO from the last five or six years has worked.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick was hiking with his wife and missed Wednesday through Friday. He expects choppy, messy price action around these levels. "I would much rather see the Spy like undercut the 200 day reclaim it and then go versus like tap and go." The IWM "has not proven itself in any capacity," so "I want to trade what's moving." The QQQs are holding a range from the mid-350s to 380 and haven't even retraced to the 38.2 Fibonacci level, "that's incredibly strong." Tesla basically held 200, Google has "crazy relative strength," and "imagine if Nidia never touches 400." Redfin fell from about 20 to 5. He's wary of crypto.
If the S&P keeps falling, he'd look at the 407.70 area on SPY, where there's a high-volume weekly cluster, for "a falling knife type trade." Measured moves from the ranges point to about 410 on SPY and the mid-330s on the QQQs. On the QQQs, the 200-day is at 337, the 38.2 is at 338 and the 50% is around 320 to 323. "I would continue and remain bullish longer term saying like six months to a year out as long as that 322 holds." "The most bullish thing I think would be probably selling off into that meeting," without wide, violent bars down. On gold, if you want to be a swing holder, "wait till it takes out that 2089." He's looking to get long Uber on weakness: if he gets the 200-day, he'll bite, and he might get a chance in the mid-30s if the floor breaks. DraftKings' short-term moving averages are curling down, and he doesn't like its monthly.
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "all of bull hopes and dreams seem to go out the window toward the end of the week." He pointed to Bitcoin going from 29,000 to 35,000 today. When they talked about Bitcoin with Cookie_M last month, Cookie_M wanted price above the monthly and weekly moving averages, "well there you go right what more what more do you want." "If we're getting to a place where it is risk on and Bitcoin is telling us it's risk on," speculative plays could do as well as mega-cap tech. He has been missing more of his 15-minute morning trades this past week, which makes him think "something's happening in the market to make... it maybe be more risk on." On Cloudflare, "look at this base when that releases my God it's going to go," with 15 or 16 months of sideways action. "Typically the week after Opex has tended to be bullish this year."
On his CarMax short, "I should have stayed in it longer and should have been bigger." "I still like rivan Nick and I'm I'm G to die on that Hill," and it's the EV maker to own if not Tesla. He sees a small descending wedge, but price needs to get back into the 20s. He's long Cloudflare. He nearly added to SOXL on Friday, since if mega-cap tech leads, "chances are chips are probably lead," and it could blast through the $30 zone. In cybersecurity, from Zscaler to CrowdStrike to Palo Alto, "I still think they're all winners." He thought about getting out of Roblox in the 50s, but "that might be the time that I need to be more of it instead of less." He also likes Palantir. This was "the last originating from Georgia episode," and next week the show comes from Kentucky.
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said last week "there was no bid," and "it's your negative gamma," with market makers staying delta neutral. "Flo dictates the show." His Microsoft cup-and-handle chart was "just maybe just maybe," with Microsoft reporting tomorrow as a proxy for the market. On the SPX, it went sideways at the 38.2 and then the 23.6 Fibonacci levels, and it tagged the rising 50-week SMA today. On the QQQ monthly, "the eight cross the 21 it's holding the eight that's inherently a bull trend." With choppy price action on a monthly uptrend, "you should be looking to buy dips not calling for crashes." The dispersion trade sells everything underneath to keep the mega caps afloat, so laggards "could end up being Monsters by the end of the year." Netflix fell 100 points into earnings on "insanely bearish" flow, and "as soon as earnings came the flow just stopped being bearish."
He thinks the tone of next week's FOMC matters, and calls for crashes a week before the meeting "doesn't really make sense." With savers earning 5.4% on T-bills, "cash is working for you." The QQQs are "still up 33% for the year," with decent accumulation in this consolidation. "The biggest tell that this was coming was all of the splits" in Amazon and Google, which added liquidity. He's looking for a longer-term swing short in the XLE after the Hess merger, since consolidation cycles in oil "tend to be closer to the top than the bottom," but he'd wait for a bounce. As for gold, he doesn't see how it ever became the safety trade.
GP said profitable high-beta names like Palantir are holding, while unprofitable ones like Wayfair and Roku have broken down. ARM put in a big bullish engulfing after heavy 51 calls on Friday, and someone bought about 6,000 SPX 4,400 calls for October 31, right into the FOMC. "If you're not paying attention to flow... I think it's pretty crucial in this time." On Disney, "It's a short-term trade mean verion back 200 day at 92 or 93," then a double-bottom test into tax-loss season. He asked whether any IPO from the last five or six years has worked: Uber, Lyft, Zoom, Chewy, Pinterest and Fastly all sit under their IPO highs, and Duolingo "seems to be slightly better."
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