Chapters
00:00 Intro: Halloween Eve From the Basement
01:38 A Week of Fed, AMD and Apple
02:10 GP: What Would Move the Fed Needle
03:10 Apple's Night Event
04:44 GP: Big Sellers Near the Top
07:45 GP: Value Conversations
08:50 GP: Moves They Couldn't Do in 2022
10:24 GP: Negative Gamma Explained
12:29 GP: Palo Alto as a Short
14:01 Nick: Palo Alto's Breakout Failure
16:10 GP: Destroyed Into Earnings
16:40 Nick: Netflix Versus 400
17:10 GP: Nvidia Is Eating the Semis' Lunch
18:11 Nick: Super Micro and Nvidia's Rounding Top
20:43 The Ten Names Everyone Watches
21:13 Tesla Below the Weekly 200
23:47 GP: No Bull Flow
24:47 Nick: Gold and the 20-Day
28:25 StockTwits Troubles
29:26 GP: Predatory Intraday Action
32:02 The Dead Episode
41:55 Small Caps and Bitcoin
43:30 Decades of Nothing
47:39 Short Setups
50:22 O'Reilly, AutoZone and Royal Caribbean
53:35 Food Names Standing Out
55:06 Ben: Malls Closing at 8
58:12 Dell
58:49 GP: Only Seven Stocks?
1:01:30 Quarterly Shorts
1:04:11 GP: Swinging Calls Into FOMC
1:08:59 Ben: The Catalyst Could Be Powell
1:11:34 Nick: Waiting for Capitulation
1:13:05 GP: Netflix as the Leader
1:14:41 Nick: The First Move Is the False Move
1:15:12 GP: Watching the Flows
1:16:47 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #91 went out live on Monday evening, October 30, with Ben, Nick and GP. It was Halloween Eve, and Ben had just moved from Georgia and was streaming from his parents' basement. Ahead of AMD earnings, the FOMC, Apple and jobs data, the hosts covered negative gamma, Palo Alto as a short, Nvidia and the semis, and a long list of "dead" charts. They each picked a short to hedge their quarterly longs. They also talked about what could spark a squeeze.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said Palo Alto's weekly "is a breakout failure," so "in my mind it's heading back to the low end of of the range" between 250 and 200 unless a higher low forms near the 200-day. On Netflix, "I liked it held it what the 50-day and basically 400," so trade it against 400. Super Micro "looks almost exactly like Nvidia," hanging on the neckline. On Nvidia's weekly, "I think it's more of a round just a round and" top, with a measured move to about 300 to 320 if it plays out. He said "I just say smci would be a better Target to go after it's a lot thinner too." Gold is one of the few charts he likes. He'd wait for all-time highs to be taken out to swing it, but on both sides, "I think use the 20day as your guide," and the monthly engulfing bar should bring follow-through.
He was nervous watching O'Reilly and AutoZone's wide-range bar through the 200-day after 10 to 15 years of strength. If they start to roll, maybe that's a warning sign. For newer traders, "if there's not actionable setups out there stop trying to pick... Fallen knives." He took Super Micro as his quarterly short. His catalyst would be "hitting kind of a major kind of a major level of support," with the QQQs not far from the 330s pivot. He'd like to see the S&P drift down to about 400 on the SPY and round out. "The best thing that we could see is if the first move is the false move," and "if we rally on Wednesday... I don't know if I can... trust it."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said "we got moved," with everything out of Georgia and his office still being set up, and "the market... sucks." "I have missed trading but I'm not just trying to jump out in front of freight trains." He took Lululemon as his short pick to hedge his long: He went to the mall with his dad and was surprised that it closes at 8 p.m. on weekdays, "it feels like an economic decision." On a catalyst, "I don't think Jay Pal's gonna say that we're gonna have 18 months of no rate hikes," but he could say no more hikes for the rest of the year, which could be "the kindling right to set that short squeeze on fire." "We've seen good charts go bad and we've seen bad charts go good so it's hard for me to remain pessimistic over the long term."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP thinks the only way the Fed changes the price action is to say the hiking cycle is over, which he doubts, so the choppy action likely continues. He found the timing of Apple's evening event, two days before earnings, strange. He noted that Bezos stepped down near the 2021 top and that executives have been selling. "What's going to drive pandemic growth outside of another pandemic," so now it's about value. Home Depot had nine straight down weeks and Boeing 11, "they couldn't even do 11 straight red weeks during the pandemic." "We're in a negative gamma we've been in negative gamma for months now," which means "the higher put strikes become magnets." He sees Palo Alto as "a thorough short": a hammer in an uptrend back in June, earnings wicks into a volume node and a rejection at the 50. "The breakdowns are usually brutal when they're this sideways for this long." He took Palo Alto as his quarterly short.
The theme has been "I'm going to destroy you into earnings and then let the earnings decide," as with Arista, Amazon and Netflix. "I personally believe Nvidia is eating the lunch of all of these semis," and if it rolls, it's an opportunity for institutions to load up. It's holding above the monthly eight SMA and the May breakout. In the flow, "there's just no bull flow," with calls sold at any support intraday. Intraday pops in the QQQs and Netflix get faded within minutes: "a lot of it feels predatory." He ran through a long list of names at multi-year lows, including Square, PayPal, Roku, Zoom, Lemonade and Datadog. Most stocks outside the top seven to 12 have had half a decade to a decade of underperformance. GE has "24 years of lower highs." Food names like Wingstop, Texas Roadhouse and Chipotle stand out, because "people gota eat."
Into the FOMC, "I plan on taking a stab on swing in some calls... I think we're going to get up side surprise," probably in the SPY or QQQs. With everyone positioned short, "if any upside surprise happens this squeeze can be pretty powerful." The QQQs went from 373 to 343 in two weeks, much like June 2022. Netflix "has shown to be the leader when it comes to Market Direction" and is finding support where it needs to. He's watching the flows rather than sentiment: in Square and PayPal, he hasn't seen the LEAPS buying that usually comes at the end of a big move down, and calls are still being sold on every pop.
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