Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:42 A Banger of a Week
01:45 Dell's Chart
02:48 Nick: Failed Bearish Patterns
04:21 GP: Was It Ever a Head and Shoulders?
09:00 Is the Failed Pattern Stronger?
11:35 Ben: AMD's Earnings Rip
12:36 Nvidia Into Earnings
14:43 Nick: Good-Night Tweets and Apple
16:46 GP: Shopify and Roku Need Pivots
18:48 Ben: A Boring Session
19:19 GP: Constructive Price Action
20:53 Nick: DraftKings, Uber and DoorDash
22:29 GP: Coinbase Keeps Testing 86.51
23:01 Ethereum and Crypto
25:07 MicroStrategy and the Miners
26:45 Nick: Netflix and Costco
27:49 Ben: Semis Through SOXL
29:26 Nick: AMD Catching Up to Nvidia
30:29 Lattice and Palo Alto
32:34 Ben: Tesla Lagging
34:39 Nick: Tesla's Range From 210 to 230
37:14 GP: Tesla the Widowmaker
41:46 Ben: Tesla's Monthly Moving Averages
42:49 Rivian Earnings
43:50 GP: Disney and Square
45:26 Ben: Jack Dorsey Back at Block
46:56 PayPal Versus Square
48:30 Ben: The IGV Looks Weaker
50:38 Semis Versus Software
52:14 Nick: IGV Alerts
54:47 GP: IGV Risk-Reward
55:54 Earnings This Week
58:29 Uber, Bill and Roblox
1:00:39 Nick: Ross and Abercrombie
1:03:48 Tech Fabrics and Crocs
1:05:54 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #92 went out live on Monday evening, November 6, with Ben, Nick and GP after a big week for the QQQs. The hosts debated whether Nvidia ever really had a head and shoulders. They also covered AMD's post-earnings rip, Coinbase testing its pivot, Tesla's range and its December 2020 breakaway gap, Disney and Square, and why the IGV looks weaker than the semis. Nick closed with Ross and the retail names he struggles to trade.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said "a failed bearish pattern in my mind is significantly more bullish than just a a run-of-the-mill like I don't know bull flag." Dip buyers step in below the neckline, and when the shorts cover, it's "just adding fuel to the fire." "These patterns and generally speaking are like self-fulfilling prophecies." He saw a flood of "good night" calls on Apple, which opened down after earnings "and held up extremely well." He's happy to see DraftKings get follow-through and is stalking Uber and DoorDash, but "I'm not going to bleed any premiums while this... Market might consolidate for like a week or two." He'd like to see names push toward the high end of their ranges and get tight, like Mark Minervini's volatility contraction pattern. He likes Palantir and DraftKings. Netflix "looks freaking amazing," and "it should have never been in the 340s in the first place." Costco looks great too. AMD's weekly and monthly "look like a freaking Launchpad."
On Tesla, he was happy with the close. Use the gap, and you're fine as long as it holds the August 18 low around 211 or 212: "I think 200's a nice round number to trade against." He'd call last week's breakdown a failure, like Nvidia's. "If it can get above that 230 and hold then I'm definitely in a camp that we're heading back to the highs of the range," since 230 is the 50% of the latest leg down. On the IGV, he sees "a descending wedge into the 200 day or into that 40we moving average," with alerts at 358 and 373. He likes Ross, which started breaking out with earnings due on the 16th, but he has a tough time trading retail names because "you have to have months to get these moves."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben said AMD had an incredible move after earnings, down to almost 92 after hours and ripping to 111 at today's close. Nvidia reports in 15 days, and "we might see a positive move on Nvidia post earnings just just a guess." Today was boring: "I sat in front of my computer for about two hours." For someone who likes to squeeze off a trade or two, "that was just like why am I even here today." For semis, "I'm in AMD I'm in marll," and otherwise "I just buy some sockle and just sleep just fine at night." His Tesla pick "still wanting to be lagered," and the chart "doesn't look great to me anymore," though he isn't selling. The monthly nine and 20 are at 225 and 228, so above 230 "you're cooking a little bit."
He saw in Cathie Wood's ARK newsletter that Jack Dorsey is back running Block day to day. While doing charts this weekend, he noticed that IGV names sold off into Friday's close. "I'm not being bearish here," but usually "when you see a tech rally the igv is sitting there as a full house," and "it just seems weaker than some of the other names." The semis look better: "it's night and day."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP asked "what if we entertain the thought that it wasn't a head and shoulders." Head-and-shoulders tops usually come with blowout volume at the head, "but you didn't get Blowout Volume on the head," so there was no distribution. First Solar is the clear-cut example, with capitulation volume after a 4x move. With Nvidia, "it wasn't clearing out positions it was how can we add more." "This is to me is an accumulation pattern not necessarily a distribution." "In nvidia's particular case if it was a head and shoulders it was a weak head and shoulders," so the failed move should be stronger. If the flush was the final accumulation after five months sideways, "then the move starts to expand higher."
Shopify going back to 46 "is is a great move," but it wiped people out for four months and still isn't breaking the pivot. "I'm a bit more cautious until we start taking out pivots that matter." Microsoft had an all-time-high weekly close. Today was "actually pretty constructive," with the IWM resting as the TNX rose while mega caps showed strength. Coinbase has tagged about 86.51 six times since August and been rejected: "none of this stuff is breaking pivots." Tesla is "the Widowmaker," driven by flow when there's no real news. It's holding the December 2020 breakaway gap near 199.20, which dates to the S&P inclusion, and it hasn't made a new low this month. "I actually added to my long-term shares for the first time in the last year around 198." His last add before that was in the 120s.
He didn't get back into Disney, which stopped near 86 instead of reaching the 200-day around 91 or 92. Square got to "that 38 level that I talked about quite often," and buyers stepped in on earnings. PayPal didn't get the same kind of buying. On the IGV, it's flagging near the 61% retracement from the 2020 lows and is above the rising 200-week. Using the Fibonacci level at 344.67 as a stop, "if you want to take a trade versus that 344 345 level is probably a decent decent risk reward."
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