Chapters
00:00 Intro: Ethereum and Bitcoin
01:41 Nick Arrives
03:16 GP: The China Visit Over CPI
06:20 Ben: Alibaba's Line at 80
06:50 China Names and PDD
08:52 Nick: The IWM Isn't Interesting
09:53 Nick: Tight Action Near the Highs
10:23 GP: What a Lockout Means
12:28 Ben: A Cup and Handle Like Microsoft
13:29 Nick: The QQQ Cup and Handle
15:02 GP: Cups Happen at the Top
16:37 Nick: Perfectly Orchestrated
17:07 Broadcom, Nvidia and KLA
18:10 Nick: Tesla's Pocket Pivot
18:40 GP: Tesla's Implied Volatility
19:43 Quarterly Shorts Check-In
20:45 Nick: Uber, DoorDash and DraftKings
22:16 Ben: Roblox Needs 43
23:47 Victoria's Secret and Wedge Drops
25:23 Nick: Struggling With Retail
27:35 Nike and Asics
29:07 Favorite Setups You're Not In
29:38 Nick: McDonald's and Drive-Thrus
32:12 Ben: XLC and Netflix
33:15 Ben: China Names and PDD Alerts
35:21 Ben: AMD's Breakout
37:29 XLF and Goldman
37:59 Nick: Cybersecurity
39:03 GP: Pfizer, Altria and Verizon
40:37 Cisco and IBM
42:08 Nick: That Week of Despair
43:13 GP: Worse Than 2022
45:49 Nick: Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk
47:29 GP: Retail Looks Great
49:00 Walmart, Costco and Restaurants
50:31 Nick: Energy Drinks
53:08 GoPro, Bluebird and Perma-Bears
55:48 Ben: SentinelOne
56:50 The Intel Versus AMD Bet
58:23 Victoria's Secret and Mob Psychology
1:00:32 Solar
1:02:02 GP: Small Caps Can't Lead
1:04:07 Nick: Go Where the Money Is
1:06:10 What's in the IWM
1:08:13 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #93 went out live on Monday evening, November 13, with Ben, Nick and GP. Nick joined a few minutes in. With CPI the next day and China's premier visiting San Francisco, the hosts talked about the lockout idea, the QQQs' cup and handle, Tesla's pocket pivot and low implied volatility, China names, cybersecurity, retail and restaurants. They also discussed why small caps may not lead with rates where they are.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick has no interest in the IWM right now. On the daily it looks like a small inverse head and shoulders, with the 50-day as "the line to use as like a cheater entry." He'd love to see "a couple weeks of like kind of tight price action up near the highs," and if the pivot highs from the end of July are taken out, "I am full board like in the camp that we are going... to alltime highs." "I think on the qes it is like about as textbook and as clean of like a cup and handle as you could ever possibly get," with the 2022 pullback near the 38.2 retracement. Big-cap tech getting bought after earnings felt "perfectly perfectly orchestrated." Tesla "basically put in like a 20-day 200 day pocket pivot," and an open above 230 or 231 would leave an island bottom. Uber, DoorDash and DraftKings are among his four biggest positions. Descending wedges are bullish if they break out after the fifth touch, but otherwise they can turn into "a wedge drop." He struggles with retail: "how great can you really be you know as a clothing company."
He noticed McDonald's broke and reclaimed a channel, and Twin Cities fast-food places are moving to drive-thru only, with "massive lines still." CrowdStrike is the only cyber name he still owns, and he would have bought Zscaler's breakout if he didn't have so many positions on. He journaled hard during the late-October despair: "I never felt that level of like... a crazy weird feeling of Despair." He thought the QQQs' 350–355 floor would hold. He likes Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, but the IBB and XBI, like the IWM, "really needs to kind of prove itself." "There's way too many good-look setups to kind of throw your money at like what could be just either dead money." Energy drinks "can't keep them on the shelf" at gas stations. He doesn't think the IWM needs to lead for a breakout: "I don't care what's moving but I'm going to move to where the money... is."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben opened with Ethereum looking "fantastic on the monthly and the weekly," and Bitcoin looks great too, after last week's breakout in the QQQs. "I think the dailies are starting to confirm we are entering or have entered a new uptrend." On Alibaba, "below 80 bad above 80 seven good." He compared the QQQs to Microsoft, which went to all-time highs from "a massive cup and handle." He's holding his Lululemon short, "and it's just proving me wrong," hoping Tesla gains make up for it. His Roblox position has been "dead weight for a year or plus." He told his community it needs to break through about 42.50 to 43, an area with a lot of failures. "It's not if it's when." He switched to Asics running shoes. He likes the XLC, where Meta and Google are about half the ETF, and Netflix looks great again.
He likes a few China names: the YINN 3x bull ETF, Alibaba and PDD, with alerts at 111 and 106 on PDD. "It's literally on the verge of breaking out it just needs that that fire Catalyst," with a move to the 135–145 range. He loves AMD and Lisa Su. Holding the 115 area, AMD has room to take out 132, and the 132-to-93 range implies "around that 35 to 40 Point range from 132." He likes the XLF back above its previous all-time highs, the FAS 3x bull shares and Goldman. He's "still very positive on the stock and the Outlook" for SentinelOne. In the Intel-versus-AMD bet from May 31, Intel is ahead because AMD is roughly flat. He thinks Victoria's Secret dropping its "woke" push can be "a tradable moment in time... just knowing how humans behave."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said the bigger catalyst this week is China's visit, not CPI, which "hasn't mattered much in a long time." Better U.S.-China relations "would be a huge Catalyst for for the stock market," though an opening could also hit Alibaba if Amazon came in. Last time, the negative news hit the week after the visit, and he saw no notable flow ahead of OpEx. He sees a "rounding bottom pattern from the 2021 highs... with a handle," which gave time to accumulate names that ran 200–300% and retraced 50%. "When I say lockout is of the of the names that will participate in in the next move higher... the pullbacks already happened," so new pullbacks will be shallow. Shopify and Roku show the pattern: "it's the markup phase." Cups "happen at the top" of a move, not at the bottom.
Tesla's "implied volatility in Tesla options is not even climbing yet," at around 40 to 55 instead of the usual 80% or more. He "got long some quick calls at 45 IV," and "I like the setup here." He closed his Palo Alto short as soon as it got above the 50 SMA. His Verizon is "collecting a what a 7% yield," better than treasuries. He said late October was worse than 2022: Boeing had 12 straight red weeks and Home Depot nine. That's why "I potentially think we have walk out possibilities." "Maybe retail is not as screwed as we think they are," with cruise lines, Wingstop, Chipotle, McDonald's, Ross, Lululemon and Walmart looking good. With rates at 5 to 5.25%, "I don't see how small caps lead I can see how small caps can follow."
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