Chapters
00:00 Intro: KLA and Broadcom
01:14 A Big Thanksgiving-Week Monday
01:44 GP: Say It Loud, Lockout
03:47 Nick: Trading the 10- and 20-Day
05:20 GP: Laggards Turning and Mega Caps
08:56 Ben: AMD and the Elliott Wave Calls
09:58 GP: Candles Without Context
13:37 Nick: Weekly and Monthly Trump the Daily
16:12 GP: Netflix Leads and Put Selling
20:19 Nvidia Earnings Preview
24:22 GP: The Cybertruck and Jefferies
26:28 Quarterly Picks Check-In
28:37 Coinbase and Crypto
29:40 XLK and XLC
31:45 Target Versus Walmart
33:49 GP: First Solar's Base Retest
35:55 Gold and Silver
36:57 Emerging Markets and China
38:03 Nick: Avoiding the Culture War
40:05 Ben: Carvana Like CarMax
41:11 GP: PDD's Strength
42:11 Nick: Trend Over Candles
44:23 Ben: Financials and Goldman's Island
45:57 Ross Stores, FICO and Up-and-to-the-Right
49:35 Ben: The Time to Buy Was Weeks Ago
51:05 Fridays
54:08 Nick: No Losers Over the Weekend
58:18 What's on Your Radar
59:20 Nick: Wingstop and Lemonade
1:02:26 GP: Emerging Markets for 2024
1:06:34 ARK Over or Under $51
1:08:40 GP: The Mid-Cap Space
1:09:44 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #94 went out live on Monday evening, November 20, with Ben, Nick and GP during Thanksgiving week. The QQQs were up 1.25% on what they expected to be a quiet day. The hosts called it a lockout rally and talked about reading candles in context, Netflix leading and put selling ahead of Nvidia's earnings. They also covered the Cybertruck, First Solar's base retest, financials, emerging markets for 2024 and why Nick won't hold a losing swing over the weekend.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
Nick said that if you missed a name you wanted, you can use the 10- or 20-day: "I would view like a 10day test as a especially on the EMA as as a very shallow dip." If this keeps being a lockout, "you're going to have to use shorter term and shallower pivots to trade against." "I think daily and weekly... I'm sorry weekly and monthly candles I think Trump the daily." If he reacted to every daily candle, "I would be getting chopped in and out of positions like all day every day." He's picky about descending wedges, so First Solar's isn't one he would necessarily trade. He doesn't care to be involved in names caught up in the culture-war fight, since that uncertainty "could drill these stocks." When you pay more attention to the trend, candles you over-read "are likely bear traps if anything or opportunities to... accumulate." He's been scanning for island reversals like Goldman's, after watching how Netflix performed after its island.
On Fridays, he likes to see early weakness get bought up, buying near the 10-day EMA or daily support. He's "typically probably a net seller on Fridays" and won't hold a losing swing position over the weekend. "I like coming into the the week with like kind of like as about as fresh of a mind as possible." He has a lot of alerts set, and three of his four biggest positions are DraftKings, Uber and DoorDash. Wingstop broke out at 185 and had "a real nice kind of high and tight daily flag." At 210 he probably would have put on a starter and hoped it tested 220 to 225. Growth traders are watching Lemonade's big bar through the 200-day, which some call "a bull snort," and "it's the spring setup right it just breaks the base and then reverses higher."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben opened with KLA and Broadcom on screen and the QQQs up about 1.25%, which surprised him for a Thanksgiving week. "Typically the week after Opex has been a better week for the bull." He likes AMD. A trader he follows posted an AMD chart, and an Elliott Wave commenter called a bearish target of 25 and now says 300. "Something that sets you up to say AMD to 25 like you're you're just out to lunch." He's still long Tesla, though "begrudgingly." He sees Carvana the same way as his CarMax short, which "was a brilliant trade," and he doesn't think these companies can keep buying used cars at inflated prices while new ones get discounted. He brought up financials while "you two were so... bearish," and Goldman has five inside candles on the daily.
He said the whole recent area in the QQQs "was your time to buy," and as Cookie_M posted, "you don't need to trade now like you just need to enjoy what you put the work in for." With so much going on in his life the past few weeks, he's been day trading more than swing trading, because the last thing he needs to weigh on him right now is open positions that aren't looking good. "It's easy when you're winning." He loves Nick's no-losers-over-the-weekend rule, because "we've all been there where we've sized too big and we're praying for a move."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP said "Can someone say lock out say loud." Stage-one breakouts retraced over the last three or four months, and instead of buying them, people looked to short. "That's what lockouts are... they're shallow pullbacks." The 30-year bond hasn't even broken out yet, which would generally be more bullish for equities. Laggards are turning, including Palantir, Unity and Intel, which hit 45. Shopify is back to 70, and DoorDash and MongoDB are breaking out. Amazon struggled at the 140 to 145 level and is now at 146, and Nvidia made a weekly all-time high. Meta "got to that gap down level of 323" and broke out of consolidation, while Tesla is "still 50% off all-time highs." "It's a rotation game rotation station," with Google, Amazon and Tesla able to offset weakness in Microsoft or Apple.
"It's candles without context." "You don't get shooting stars in the middle of a breakout pattern," and on Apple's daily you can count seven or eight bearish candles, but the follow-through on each was higher. "Netflix is your biggest freaking indicator on the market." It's breaking out of its range since June, and options flow "is not actually called buying it's put selling," which explains the slow grind higher. This isn't 2020 or 2021: "it's not a free money Society anymore." On Nvidia, "I don't think it actually has a big move I think it just grinds." Microsoft committing to AI tells you smaller players are spending too. George Soros selling his whole Nvidia stake meant just 10,000 shares. He sees either a grind into January OpEx with shallow pullbacks or a nasty one- or two-day pullback followed by rotation higher. Ahead of the Cybertruck event, he said an analyst telling a company to stop developing a product is "ludicrous." Elon "delivers even if it's a bit later." He's still long Tesla.
Target versus Walmart "is a clear example of sell Walmart by Target," since rotation can happen within a sector. First Solar "is a break of the 12E base retest," back at the 130 area where it broke down in 2011 and broke out in 2022, so "this holds it's going much higher." PDD is breaking out on its own while China names get smoked: "when the rest of them start to push higher this Goes Bananas." He's eyeing emerging markets for 2024. They're on the verge of breaking a downtrend line after "a monster engulfing" on the monthly and could be catch-up trades if Europe follows the U.S. in taming inflation. With about half of small caps unprofitable and rates likely to stay steady, he thinks small caps still struggle and mid caps "do slightly do better."
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