Chapters
00:00 Intro: Monday Night Football
01:05 Into the Chop Zone
01:37 GP's Million-Dollar Question
03:08 Nick: Property and the Index
03:38 Ben: Rentals and Dividends
05:45 GP: All In on the Market
08:22 GP: Square, Disney and the Roku Baseline
11:32 GP: Real Estate, Treasuries and Rates
16:42 Quarterly Picks Check-In
20:48 GP: Still in Lockout Mode
25:31 Nick: Hoping for Three-Week Tights
27:05 GP: The Ammo Is There
29:38 Nick: A January Effect
30:08 GP: Short Covering
31:39 Netflix's Pivots
34:19 Ben: SoFi and Beaten-Up Names
35:53 Nick: ARKG Over Single Names
36:55 Ben: China, Alibaba and Tencent
40:06 Ethereum
43:48 Airbnb, Uber and IPO Charts
44:19 A Bullish November
45:52 Solar and Wynn
46:55 MicroStrategy and Coinbase
48:31 Ben: Redfin's Retest
49:02 Nick: KLA, Lam and Broadcom
51:08 Shopify
52:43 FICO and Black Friday
54:16 Apple Watch and Garmin
1:00:30 Wrap-Up
Market Hours #95 went out live on Monday evening, November 27, with Ben, Nick and GP during Monday Night Football. GP asked what each host would do with a surprise million dollars that had to be put to work within a week. The hosts also checked in on the quarterly picks with a week to go and talked about the lockout rally, short covering, bank and utility monthlies, SoFi and China, and Nick's semis. They closed on Black Friday crowds, Apple Watch and Garmin.
Nick's setups, levels and trades
With a million dollars, Nick said "I'd buy land land and another... investment property," then put the rest in the S&P or QQQs. He lets hope influence his trading only in that he hopes things will slow down or set up the way he wants, "not in the sense that like I'm hoping a a losing position turns into a winner." He'd love to see Tesla "chill here sideways for the rest of this week and put in a 3-we tight," and Microsoft and Meta could put in three-week tights at highs too. If dips stay shallow, active traders will "have to buy the weakness into these Rising moving averages." He wouldn't expect a deep pullback until January, since "they chase a lot of these what's been strong into the end of the year." He'd almost rather play an ETF like ARKG than individual names. He has made decent money trading CRISPR, but "I've never been able to get any like decent size."
He got chopped out of MercadoLibre before its breakout. His usual names: KLA "looks awesome," and Lam Research looks phenomenal through about 727. He added to Palantir in the morning under 19, closer to its 20-day, though he doesn't like last week's bar. He still likes Microsoft and Meta and loves Broadcom. It's trading at 950, and he'd take a stab if it pulls into the mid-920s or 930. "I'd say lrcx is probably my favorite setup that currently hasn't really triggered." He would add to Shopify on a pullback toward the 20-day, and he thinks that test of the 20-day will show whether names that have run keep locking out. He's a "Garmin freak," and once you get into one ecosystem, "you just get stuck." Wearables are huge, since a lot of people "are really taking their health into their own hands."
Ben's setups, levels and trades
Ben has been reallocating cash after retiring, selling a home and moving 401(k)s to an IRA. With the windfall, "I would probably find some local rentals to buy," keep adding to his stock positions and look for "some nice dividend plays to just sock money away," with Verizon as one example. "I'd want some cash flow with the rental properties." He said he put "so much to work since September." On the quarterly picks, he noted that Fastly was 24.10 when Nick picked it, Wayfair 72.16 for GP and Tesla 245 for him. "We're wrong on time frames." He thinks they'll still hit their targets, maybe just not in the window they set. He also admitted he shorted Lululemon around 400 as his hedge pick.
He likes beaten-up names and "purchased more Sofi last week," seeing it set up to go back over the moving averages and the pivot. "I like Sofi higher into the tens again." He's been watching China, where he's in NIO. "I kind of kind of like Baba here," though he doesn't like that it broke below 81, and Tencent is coming up nicely. "If China's G to go Baba's gonna go with it." The buyers of his house used Redfin as their agents, and Redfin's chart shows "the retest of the original bottom and buyers have stepped in."
GP's setups, levels and trades
GP would "put the entire amount in the market because I think we're going much higher," split among the IWM, the MDY and the QQQs. He might see a 5–7% pullback in the next couple of months but isn't worried about 20 or 30 points. "What if we're just starting a new leg of a bull market." He'd look for 2024 winners. Square tagged "that 38 by the way perfectly," and he's waiting for a mean reversion to the 200-day around 46 to 50. Disney is the same story, while PayPal has little accumulation. Roku and Shopify are his baseline for bottoming charts: Roku went to 98, got "obliterated" back to 55 and has roughly doubled in four weeks. Shopify went from 22 or 23 to 70, back to 46 and is now at 74. That's how "stage one accumulation comes to an end and you have your stage two markup phase."
He'd skip real estate, because homes in New Jersey are selling 100,000 to 200,000 above asking. He'd also skip metals, and "treasuries I think is the Trap." He doesn't see rates getting cut much unless there's a crisis, and getting 4 or 5% on cash is "fantastic for investors in general." He thinks consumers are doing okay, as Black Friday showed. "We're still in lockout mode by the way," and the pullbacks "are not any type of value." On Microsoft, he pointed to 366 and 354 as where it pulls into. "The Spy hasn't even taken out the June pivot yet," and the XLF and banks are just breaking out of a downtrend since February 2022. The XLU had "this monster false breakdown just like 2009," a morning-star reversal on the monthly. "To me there's lots of ammo to take this Market higher." What he noticed today was short covering in Wayfair, which was up 8%, and in Carvana, Unity, Path, Affirm and Upstart. That means people are catching on that "we're not going to get a really crazy pullback."
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